Carolyn Kaster / AP

President Trump made some pretty optimistic promises about the health care bill twice this weekend — at his rally in Pennsylvania and on Face the Nation. So it's worth examining what he said, and how likely it is that we'll have to re-examine his promises if the bill becomes law. (Just like we all had to re-examine Barack Obama's "if you like your health plan, you can keep it" when that didn't work out.)

  • "We're going to get the premiums down, we're going to get the deductibles way down, we're going to take care of every single need you're going to want to have taken care of, but it's not going to cost that kind of money." — At Harrisburg, PA rally
  • Reality check: Health insurance is a series of tradeoffs — you can have lower premiums or lower deductibles, but usually not both. And if they are both lower, it's usually because the plan covers fewer benefits. It's rare to have a cheaper plan that covers "every single need."
  • "Pre-existing conditions are in the bill ... They say we don't cover pre-existing conditions, we cover it beautifully." — Face the Nation interview
  • Reality check: Insurers may still have to cover them, but in states that get waivers, people with health conditions could be charged more if they didn't stay insured. And even Trump acknowledged that he wants to leave the ultimate decisions to the states: "If you hurt your knee, honestly, I'd rather have the federal government focused on North Korea, focused on other things, than your knee, okay?"
  • The danger of higher premiums for 64-year-olds has been "totally fixed." — Face the Nation interview
  • Reality check: The Congressional Budget Office warned that the new tax credit structure could leave the low-income elderly paying way more than they did under the Affordable Care Act. The White House pointed me to the changes made in the House manager's amendment, which would make the medical expenses deduction more generous. That's supposed to steer more money toward low-income seniors, but CBO hasn't finished analyzing the changes to make sure they actually help.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 12,859,834 — Total deaths: 567,123 — Total recoveries — 7,062,085Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 3,297,501— Total deaths: 135,155 — Total recoveries: 1,006,326 — Total tested: 40,282,176Map.
  3. States: Florida smashes single-day record for new coronavirus cases with over 15,000 — NYC reports zero coronavirus deaths for first time since pandemic hit.
  4. Public health: Ex-FDA chief projects "apex" of South's coronavirus curve in 2-3 weeks — Coronavirus testing czar: Lockdowns in hotspots "should be on the table"
  5. Education: Betsy DeVos says schools that don't reopen shouldn't get federal funds — Pelosi accuses Trump of "messing with the health of our children."

Scoop: How the White House is trying to trap leakers

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

President Trump's chief of staff, Mark Meadows, has told several White House staffers he's fed specific nuggets of information to suspected leakers to see if they pass them on to reporters — a trap that would confirm his suspicions. "Meadows told me he was doing that," said one former White House official. "I don't know if it ever worked."

Why it matters: This hunt for leakers has put some White House staffers on edge, with multiple officials telling Axios that Meadows has been unusually vocal about his tactics. So far, he's caught only one person, for a minor leak.

11 GOP congressional nominees support QAnon conspiracy

Lauren Boebert posing in her restaurant in Rifle, Colorado, on April 24. Photo: Emily Kask/AFP

At least 11 Republican congressional nominees have publicly supported or defended the QAnon conspiracy theory movement or some of its tenets — and more aligned with the movement may still find a way onto ballots this year.

Why it matters: Their progress shows how a fringe online forum built on unsubstantiated claims and flagged as a threat by the FBI is seeking a foothold in the U.S. political mainstream.