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Data: U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Chart: Axios Visuals

While the migrant crisis plaguing the Biden administration still pales in comparison to another peak under then-President Trump in 2019, the trends are alarming and only expected to get worse with warmer weather.

The big picture: The Biden administration is seeing a weekly average of about 500 unaccompanied children cross the southwest border every day, and it was able to return to Mexico just 10% of the migrant families who crossed illegally Saturday, according to government data provided to Axios.

Driving the news: If the average number of unaccompanied kids holds, there could be more than 15,000 crossing the border in March — more than the administration's projected peak of 13,000 in May, as Axios reported last month.

  • The Biden administration has continued to say they are using a public health order to return migrant families to Mexico, but the percentage of families expelled has steadily fallen.
  • Only 10% of the more than 1,800 families caught crossing the border Saturday were expelled under the order, according to documents leaked to Axios.
  • Administration officials have pointed to Mexico's limited capacity to take in families, especially those with young children. The administration also has chosen to not use a Trump-era policy and is allowing unaccompanied children to remain in the United States rather than expelling them.

By the numbers: Migration trends vary, but April and May have typically been peak months for migration because of milder weather.

  • During the 2014 crisis under President Obama, the number of unaccompanied children crossing the border did not surpass 8,000 until May, reaching a peak of 10,620 in June, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.
  • Just last month, there already were more than 9,000 unaccompanied kids apprehended by the Border Patrol — also surpassing every month of the crisis year of 2019, except May.

The other side: The Biden administration is avoiding 2019's never-before-seen levels of family migration — so far.

  • But February numbers more than doubled from the month before, even with officials quickly returning some families to Mexico.

The bottom line: The Biden administration is trying to address the problems through meetings with Mexico and Guatemala, hotel contracts, temporary overflow shelters, rolling back COVID-19 protocols and expedited migrant release.

  • The numbers continue to grow, however.

Go deeper

Trump says he plans to launch new social media network in 2022

Photo: Chris Delmas/AFP via Getty Images

Former President Trump on Wednesday announced plans to launch a social media network called "Truth Social," and that it would go public via a SPAC.

Why it matters: Most ex-presidents are focused on their legacies, by creating presidential libraries or engaging in philanthropic endeavors. Trump, however, remains consumed by social media.

Beauty giant Coty Cosmetics looking to sell its own branded products

Coty Cosmetics CEO Sue Nabi. Photo: Axios on HBO

Coty Cosmetics CEO Sue Nabi tells Axios the beauty giant will “probably” introduce Coty-branded products one day.

Why it matters: Coty produces some of the world’s most popular fragrances, skin care products and color cosmetics on behalf of other well-known brands, but has shied away from producing its own branded products.

4 hours ago - Sports

NFL to end race-based testing in concussion settlements

Photo: Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

The National Football League on Wednesday reached an agreement with former players to end the controversial practice of race-based adjustments in dementia testing, AP reports.

Why it matters: The deal, which must still be approved by a judge, comes amid a broader discussion of racial inequities in health care.