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A trader at the New York Stock Exchange on March 5. Photo: Michael Nagle/Xinhua via Getty) (Xinhua/Michael Nagle via Getty Images

Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to under 0.5% with the 30-year below 1% for the first time ever, oil plummeted by as much as 31%, Australia's ASX index lost 7.3% (its worst day since the financial crisis) and markets in Asia and Europe cratered.

What happened: The economic shock of the coronavirus looks set to worsen as more places around the world, including the U.S., may institute quarantine measures that would severely reduce consumer activity.

Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals
  • More than half of the 50 U.S. states now have reported cases of COVID-19. As the virus spreads, concerts and conferences have been canceled and universities are telling students to stay home.
  • Top government officials have made a complete 180-degree turn from earlier statements from the president and others that the virus in the U.S. was contained.
  • In the U.S., S&P 500 E-mini futures fell so quickly they almost immediately hit a limit triggered when the index falls 5% from its close the previous session.

Further, Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, slashed its official selling price and plans to increase production significantly after a deal with Russia to coordinate a widespread reduction collapsed, Reuters reported. The actions were reminiscent of a move in 2014 that caused prices to fall by around two-thirds.

  • The drop in oil prices will be a major additional drag on oil-producing countries already contending with the economic shock of the virus outbreak.

What it means: Economic data shows that parts of China's economy suffered a shock from the COVID-19 outbreak greater than at any time during the great financial crisis, and market participants are beginning to factor in the possibility that more countries will face a similar hit.

  • Most economic forecasts so far have assumed the virus will be contained before it becomes a global pandemic.

The bottom line: Multiple countries are likely already in recession.

  • This includes economic heavyweights Japan, Germany, and Italy, which have seen low growth in recent years and are being hit by dramatically decreased demand from top trading partner China and by the negative shock of their own coronavirus outbreaks.
  • The Institute of International Finance found that the impact on global capital flows already has been worse than during the global financial crisis and predicted the world's growth would slow to near 1% this year, its weakest since the 2007–2009 recession.

Go deeper: What to expect next with the coronavirus

Go deeper

2 hours ago - Health

Beware a Thanksgiving mirage

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Don't be surprised if COVID metrics plunge over the next few days, only to spike next week.

Why it matters: The COVID Tracking Project warns of a "double-weekend pattern" on Thanksgiving — where the usual weekend backlog of data is tacked on to a holiday.

Trump pardons Michael Flynn

President Trump with Michael Flynn in 2016. Photo: David Hume Kennerly/Getty Images

President Trump on Wednesday pardoned his former national security adviser Michael Flynn, who pleaded guilty in the Mueller investigation to lying to FBI agents about his conversations with a former Russian ambassador.

Why it matters: It is the first of multiple pardons expected in the coming weeks, as Axios scooped Tuesday night.