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A trader at the New York Stock Exchange on March 5. Photo: Michael Nagle/Xinhua via Getty) (Xinhua/Michael Nagle via Getty Images

Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to under 0.5% with the 30-year below 1% for the first time ever, oil plummeted by as much as 31%, Australia's ASX index lost 7.3% (its worst day since the financial crisis) and markets in Asia and Europe cratered.

What happened: The economic shock of the coronavirus looks set to worsen as more places around the world, including the U.S., may institute quarantine measures that would severely reduce consumer activity.

Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals
  • More than half of the 50 U.S. states now have reported cases of COVID-19. As the virus spreads, concerts and conferences have been canceled and universities are telling students to stay home.
  • Top government officials have made a complete 180-degree turn from earlier statements from the president and others that the virus in the U.S. was contained.
  • In the U.S., S&P 500 E-mini futures fell so quickly they almost immediately hit a limit triggered when the index falls 5% from its close the previous session.

Further, Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, slashed its official selling price and plans to increase production significantly after a deal with Russia to coordinate a widespread reduction collapsed, Reuters reported. The actions were reminiscent of a move in 2014 that caused prices to fall by around two-thirds.

  • The drop in oil prices will be a major additional drag on oil-producing countries already contending with the economic shock of the virus outbreak.

What it means: Economic data shows that parts of China's economy suffered a shock from the COVID-19 outbreak greater than at any time during the great financial crisis, and market participants are beginning to factor in the possibility that more countries will face a similar hit.

  • Most economic forecasts so far have assumed the virus will be contained before it becomes a global pandemic.

The bottom line: Multiple countries are likely already in recession.

  • This includes economic heavyweights Japan, Germany, and Italy, which have seen low growth in recent years and are being hit by dramatically decreased demand from top trading partner China and by the negative shock of their own coronavirus outbreaks.
  • The Institute of International Finance found that the impact on global capital flows already has been worse than during the global financial crisis and predicted the world's growth would slow to near 1% this year, its weakest since the 2007–2009 recession.

Go deeper: What to expect next with the coronavirus

Go deeper

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Omicron dashboard

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

  1. Health: CDC director says number of U.S. Omicron cases "likely to rise" — Two years of COVID-19 — Prior coronavirus infections may not protect well against Omicron.
  2. Vaccines: Data demonstrates most-vaccinated counties less vulnerable to worst of COVID — Omicron adds urgency to vaccinating world — Omicron fuels the case for COVID boosters.
  3. Politics: Nevada to impose insurance surcharge on unvaccinated state workers — New Jersey GOP lawmakers defy statehouse COVID policy — Oklahoma sues Biden administration over Pentagon vaccine mandate.
  4. World: Vaccine mandates lose steam in the U.S. while Europe doubles downWHO: Delta health measures help fight Omicron — COVID cases surge in South Africa in sign Omicron wave is coming.
  5. Variant tracker: Where different strains are spreading.

Vulnerable Democrats: Less Trump talk

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Vulnerable House Democrats are convinced they need to talk less about the man who helped them get elected: President Trump.

Why it matters: Democrats are privately concerned nationalizing the 2022 mid-terms with emotionally-charged issues — from Critical Race Theory to Donald Trump's role in the Jan. 6 insurrection — will hamstring their ability to sell the local benefits of President Biden's Build Back Better agenda.

Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Bipartisan tributes flood in for "giant of the Senate" Bob Dole

Then-Vice President Joe Biden and former Sen. Bob Dole at an event put on by the World Food Program where he was awarded the first “McGovern-Dole Leadership Award” in December 2013. Photo: Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call

Republican and Democratic politicians, including former Senate colleagues, are sharing condolences and memories commemorating the life of Bob Dole, who passed away at 98 on Sunday morning.

The big picture: Dole, the Republican presidential nominee in 1996, was the longest serving Republican leader in the Senate until 2018, when current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell surpassed his record.