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The International Energy Agency's monthly market analysis released Thursday says global oil demand will fall by 435,000 barrels per day during this quarter compared to the same period a year ago.

Why it matters: It's the first quarterly contraction in over a decade.

  • The agency also revised its total 2020 demand growth figure. They now see global oil thirst growing by 825,000 barrels per day this year, which is 365,000 lower than their previous forecast.
  • That would be the smallest expansion since 2011, as the IEA noted "significant" market consequences from the tragedy.

The big picture: The report underscores something we highlighted last week — China's enormous influence on global energy markets and the spillover effect when travel and economic activist is curtailed. Last year China accounted for over three-quarters of global demand growth, IEA notes.

  • "While the SARS epidemic of 2003 is widely used as a reference point for analysis of COVID-19, China has changed enormously since then."
  • "Today, it is central to global supply chains and there has been an enormous increase in travel to and from the country, thus heightening the risk of the virus spreading."

But, but, but: While today's report puts a highlighter pen over all this, crude markets have already priced in a lot of the demand shock.

  • Crude prices have tumbled sharply over the last few weeks to their lowest levels since early last year as the outbreak worsened, but have made up some ground in recent days.

Go deeper: Coronavirus cases spike after China revises diagnosis criteria

Go deeper

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
2 hours ago - Economy & Business

FTX CEO predicts more U.S. crypto flight

Photo: "Axios on HBO"

FTX doesn't look much like a company valued at $25 billion. Its new headquarters, located in a sleepy part of The Bahamas, is so nondescript as to not even have a sign. But it does expect to soon have neighbors.

Driving the news: Founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried tells "Axios on HBO" to expect "more and more crypto flight from the states" if the U.S. doesn't soon create a regulatory regime for cryptocurrencies.

Developed countries reveal $100 billion climate finance plan ahead of COP26

Alok Sharma, head of the UN Climate Summit in Glasgow, speaks in Paris on Oct. 12. ( Li Yang/China News Service via Getty Images)

After 12 years of fits and starts, industrialized nations on Monday put forward a detailed plan to provide at least $100 billion annually in climate aid to developing countries starting by 2023.

Why it matters: The plan, presented by representatives of Canada and Germany, is aimed at defusing one of the biggest sources of tension at COP26, which is the failure of industrialized nations to follow through on their financial commitments.

3 hours ago - Health

Moderna says COVID vaccine shows strong immune response in kids

Photo: Martin Galindo/Long Visual Press/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Moderna on Monday released trial results for its coronavirus vaccine for children aged 6 to 11, saying it provides a "robust" immune response after two doses.

Why it matters: Moderna said it will officially submit the results to the Food and Drug Administration for authorization in "the near term," meaning we could soon see two coronavirus vaccines available to protect approximately 28 million more kids in the U.S.