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Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration; Chart: Axios Visuals

Fresh U.S. government projections of U.S. oil production underscore how it will be a long time before the country again reaches its record pre-pandemic output — if ever.

Why it matters: The Energy Information Administration's outlook published Tuesday provide the first glimpse at where they see U.S. output in 2022 — at a substantial, but nowhere near complete, recovery.

Where it stands: U.S. production reached around 13 million barrels per day at the dawn of 2020 but then fell precipitously as COVID-19 caused demand and prices to crater.

The intrigue: It's not clear whether production will ever return to those levels, partly due to the unknowns around future global demand and prices.

  • Also, investors appear to be out of patience with years of investment in high growth at the expense of returns.
  • "Most shale producers are now more focused on clearing debt and honoring investor pledges to keep fiscal discipline," Bloomberg notes.

Of note: The 2021–2022 analysis is hardly set in stone.

  • EIA updates its projections every month, but they nonetheless provide a running gauge of where modelers see the market heading.
  • And these are tragically unpredictable times. The analysis "remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue to evolve," EIA notes.

Go deeper: US EIA revises crude price forecast higher amid tightened fundamental outlooks (S&P Global Platts)

Go deeper

Amy Harder, author of Generate
Jan 19, 2021 - Energy & Environment

Global investments into clean-energy technology reach record high

Reproduced from BloombergNEF; Chart: Axios Visuals

Investments into clean-energy technologies totaled more than $500 billion for the first time ever, according to a BloombergNEF report released Tuesday.

Why it matters: Technologies making energy and other material cleaner needs to expand rapidly if the world is to adequately address climate change in the coming decades.

Pelosi's Republican playbook

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

As Republicans fight among themselves, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is showing the myriad ways she deals with the GOP herself.

Between the lines: We've seen Pelosi cut opponents off at the knees, like she did with President Trump, or pretend to forget their names, as she did to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). Now she's feeding oppo research against her House counterpart, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), so others can use the same harsh rhetoric to frame the Republicans as the party of dysfunction.

Exclusive: Houston mayor to lead Black mayors group

Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner speaks during a private funeral for George Floyd. Photo: Godofredo A. Vásquez/Pool/Getty Images

The mayor of the city where George Floyd was raised is taking over a group that represents 500 Black mayors in the U.S. amid national pressure to revamp police departments.

Why it matters: Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner will become the new president of the African American Mayors Association as municipalities across the country examine police reforms and deal with the economic fallout from the pandemic.