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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

A new analysis finds that the steep U.S. greenhouse gas emissions decline stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic will have little effect on long-term trends under current policies.

What they did: The firm Energy Innovation modeled the emissions and energy demand effects of the pandemic using gross domestic product estimates from Goldman Sachs, the International Monetary Fund and the Energy Information Administration.

What they found: Their analysis sees the drop in U.S. emissions ranging 7% to 11% in 2020 compared to 2019 levels — and then coming back over the next few years.

  • "[E]missions will likely approach pre-COVID-19 levels by 2025 and COVID-19 is not likely to have a material impact on annual emissions in 2030 or cumulative emissions through 2050," they conclude.

What they're saying: Report author Megan Mahajan tells Axios that "the right stimulus response could change that business-as-usual trajectory."

  • "If the government’s COVID response includes green investments and smart policy, the U.S. could recharge the economy by kick-starting clean industries with the potential for serious decarbonization."

Go deeper

Amy Harder, author of Generate
Aug 20, 2020 - Energy & Environment

Joe Biden unlikely to push carbon tax as part of climate change plan

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Joe Biden is unlikely to pursue a carbon tax if he wins in November, according to several people familiar with his campaign's thinking.

Driving the news: The campaign said last year it supported a price on carbon emissions, but it has since released policies that embody government mandates, investments and job creation amid the pandemic-induced recession.

"Several casualties" after officer attacked at Pentagon Metro station

Law enforcement officers patrolling the Pentagon's transit station on August 3. Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Pentagon Force Protection Agency Chief Woodrow Kusse said an officer was attacked at a transit station outside the Pentagon on Tuesday morning, gunfire was exchanged between the suspect and law enforcement and multiple people were injured.

The big picture: The headquarters of the U.S. military went under temporary lockdown after multiple shots were fired. The area reopened after being secured, though the station remains closed, according to the Pentagon Force Protection Agency.

Updated 52 mins ago - Economy & Business

More corporations are requiring workers to get vaccinated

Graphic: Axios Visuals

Life for the unvaccinated could get more difficult as bosses increasingly move to make COVID-19 vaccines mandatory.

The big picture: The federal Government in May said it is legal for companies to require employees to get vaccinated for coronavirus.