Neal Rothschild
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House Republicans keep announcing 2018 departures

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Trent Franks of Arizona is the latest in a series of House Republicans to announce they won't be around beyond 2018. Franks and Democrat John Conyers earlier in the week were the first representatives to be brought down by the recent wave of sexual misconduct revelations. There are now 16 Republicans departing in 2018 and six Democrats.

Outlier check: The number to watch is 23. That's the average number of retiring representatives over the last five election cycles. Over that time, there has been more attrition from Republicans than from Democrats. However, the 8-to-3 ratio of retiring Republicans to Democrats is considerable.

Outlier check 2: According to Brookings, the average terms served for retiring members has hovered around 8 over the last 40 years, but dropped to 5 in the 2016 cycle. The average among these 16 Republicans is 10.

A look at the 16 departing Republicans...

Trent Franks of Arizona:

  • Date announced: Dec. 7 (resigning in scandal)
  • Terms: 7 full terms
  • 2016 margin of victory: 37 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 21 points

Joe Barton of Texas:

  • Date announced: Nov. 30
  • Terms: 17
  • 2016 margin of victory: 19 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 12 points

Bob Goodlatte of Virginia:

  • Date announced: Nov. 9
  • Terms: 13
  • 2016 margin of victory: 34 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 25 points

Ted Poe of Texas:

  • Date announced: Nov. 7
  • Terms: 7
  • 2016 margin of victory: 25 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 9 points

Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey:

  • Date announced: Nov. 7
  • Terms: 12
  • 2016 margin of victory: 22 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 5 points

Lamar Smith of Texas:

  • Date announced: Nov. 2
  • Terms: 15
  • 2016 margin of victory: 31 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 10 points

Jeb Hensarling of Texas:

  • Date announced: Oct. 31
  • Terms: 8
  • 2016 margin of victory: 61 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 28 points

Pat Tiberi of Ohio:

  • Date announced: Oct. 19
  • Terms: 9
  • 2016 margin of victory: 37 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 11 points

Tim Murphy of Pennsylvania (resigned in scandal):

  • Date announced: Oct. 5
  • Terms: 7 full terms
  • 2016 margin of victory: uncontested
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 20 points

Dave Trott of Michigan:

  • Date announced: Sept. 11
  • Terms: 2
  • 2016 margin of victory: 13 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 5 points
Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania:
  • Date announced: Sept. 7
  • Terms: 7
  • 2016 margin of victory: 20 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 8 points
Dave Reichert of Washington:
  • Date announced: Sept. 6
  • Terms: 7
  • 2016 margin of victory: 20 points
  • 2016 presidential: Clinton by 3 points
John J. Duncan Jr. of Tennessee:
  • Date announced: July 31
  • Terms: 15
  • 2016 margin of victory: 51 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 35 points
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida:
  • Date announced: April 30
  • Terms: 14
  • 2016 margin of victory: 10 points
  • 2016 presidential: Clinton by 20 points
Lynn Jenkins of Kansas:
  • Date announced: Jan. 25
  • Terms: 5
  • 2016 margin of victory: 28 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 19 points
Sam Johnson of Texas:
  • Date announced: Jan. 6
  • Terms: 13
  • 2016 margin of victory: 27 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 14 points
Featured

LaVar Ball used Trump's playbook to conquer sports media

LaVar Ball and Donald Trump are squabbling about giving the President credit for bringing home three UCLA basketball players — including Ball's son LiAngelo — after the players were arrested for shoplifting in China.

The beef brings two of the biggest attention hounds, usually in separate spheres of the media universe, into the same news story. Ball, father of three talented basketball players, used some familiar tactics to become Trump's equivalent in sports media.

Why it matters: Donald Trump created the blueprint for building an avalanche of earned media momentum: be the loudest, most outrageous voice in the room. Generate buzz with confrontational statements, outsized self-promotion, and abundant charisma. With Ball, we saw that strategy executed to a tee in a different habitat of the media ecosystem, and we could see more copycats.

Say something outrageous, get coverage, rinse and repeat.

LaVar's oldest son Lonzo starred at UCLA for a season and was picked No. 2 overall in the NBA Draft by the Lakers. LaVar is confident in Lonzo's abilities.

LaVar parlayed the comments into TV spots for ESPN and Fox Sports One, where he continued to provoke reactions and garner even more media buzz. By Spring of 2017, ESPN.com had more than 75 pieces of digital content with LaVar Ball in the headline.

Supreme self-regard

Ball: "Back in my heyday, I would kill Michael Jordan one-on-one" (Ball played one college season and averaged 2 points per game)

Trump: "I know more about ISIS than the generals do. Believe me."

Hostile takeover

Ball: ...of the Chino Hills High School basketball program, where LaVar's two younger sons LiAngelo (18) and LaMelo (16) played last season. LaVar undermined coach Chris Gilling during games by yelling instructions to counter Gilling's strategies. He also refused to leave the team locker room when asked, criticized Gilling incessantly, and Gilling got canned at season's end.

Trump:

Bold guarantees

Ball: UCLA will win the National Championship. (They lost in the Sweet 16)

Trump:

  • "We're going to build the wall, and Mexico is going to pay for it."
  • "At the end of four years, I guarantee you that I will get over 95 percent of the African-American vote."
  • The GOP health care plan will cover pre-existing conditions.

Hawk the brand during press appearances

Ball: As leverage against major shoe companies like Nike and Under Armour, LaVar created Big Baller Brand. Lonzo has his own shoe — the $495 ZO2s — before even joining a professional team.

Trump: Brandished a table of Trump-branded food and drink for a press conference last March.

Lynne Sladky / AP

Lean into fights with the big dogs

Ball: "If Charles (Barkley) thought like me, maybe he'd win a championship." ... “I know he don't want to play one-on-one because he's too big. He'd better stay behind at TNT and eat them doughnuts."

Trump:

I know best

Ball: "I don't need no advice from Kobe Bryant."

Trump: "Regardless of recommendation, I was going to fire Comey."

Editor's Note: This story was first published in May. It was updated on November 20th to incorporate the Trump/Ball spat.

Featured

Kaepernick named GQ Citizen of the Year

Tony Avelar / AP

In the midst of an NFL season dominated by debate over protests during the national anthem, former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick was named GQ's 'Citizen of the Year'.

Why he matters: Kaepernick, who was the first pro athlete to kneel during the national anthem to bring attention to discriminatory police practices, elevated the conversation to the national stage. He began kneeling during the 2016 season, but the issue took on new life when President Trump sought to end the practice, saying that a player who kneels is a 'son of a bitch' and should be kicked off the team, fueling blowback from high-profile athletes in the NFL and NBA.

Featured

Bob Goodlatte is the latest House Republican to announce retirement

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte, a 13-term congressman from Virginia, is the latest Republican planning to retire at the end of this term, he announced in a statement.

There are now 14 retiring House Republicans, compared to one retiring Democrat.

Go Deeper: Who they are, where they're from

Featured

Another House Republican announces retirement

Carolyn Kaster / AP

Rep. Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey is the latest in a series of House Republicans to announce he'll retire at the end of this term, he announced Tuesday. According to Nate Cohn of the New York Times, this is a big one for Democrats:

Wow. Probably the single most valuable retirement for Democrats left on the board. Can't name another seat that would go from safe Republican to toss up https://t.co/vwmwtgoTpK
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 7, 2017

There are now 12 Republicans departing in 2018 and just one Democrat. In addition, Jason Chaffetz resigned his seat in June, and his replacement is being elected Tuesday.

  • Outlier check 1: According to Brookings, the average terms served for retiring members has hovered around 8 over the last 40 years, but dropped to 5 in the 2016 cycle. The average among these 12 Republicans is 9.5.
  • Outlier check 2: The number to watch for to help determine if this trend is notable is 23. That's the average number of retiring representatives over the last five election cycles. Over that time, there has been more attrition from Republicans than from Democrats. However, the 12-to-1 ratio of retiring Republicans to Democrats is a considerable disparity.

A look at the 12 departing Republicans...

Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey:

  • Date announced: Nov. 7
  • Terms: 12
  • 2016 margin of victory: 22 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 5 points

Lamar Smith of Texas:

  • Date announced: Nov. 2
  • Terms: 15
  • 2016 margin of victory: 31 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 10 points

Jeb Hensarling of Texas:

  • Date announced: Oct. 31
  • Terms: 8
  • 2016 margin of victory: 61 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 28 points

Pat Tiberi of Ohio:

  • Date announced: Oct. 19
  • Terms: 9
  • 2016 margin of victory: 37 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 11 points

Tim Murphy of Pennsylvania (resigned in scandal):

  • Date announced: Oct. 5
  • Terms: 7 full terms
  • 2016 margin of victory: uncontested
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 20 points

Dave Trott of Michigan:

  • Date announced: Sept. 11
  • Terms: 2
  • 2016 margin of victory: 13 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 5 points
Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania:
  • Date announced: Sept. 7
  • Terms: 7
  • 2016 margin of victory: 20 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 8 points
Dave Reichert of Washington:
  • Date announced: Sept. 6
  • Terms: 7
  • 2016 margin of victory: 20 points
  • 2016 presidential: Clinton by 3 points
John J. Duncan Jr. of Tennessee:
  • Date announced: July 31
  • Terms: 15 full terms
  • 2016 margin of victory: 51 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 35 points
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida:
  • Date announced: April 30
  • Terms: 14 full terms
  • 2016 margin of victory: 10 points
  • 2016 presidential: Clinton by 20 points
Lynn Jenkins of Kansas:
  • Date announced: Jan. 25
  • Terms: 5
  • 2016 margin of victory: 28 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 19 points
Sam Johnson of Texas:
  • Date announced: Jan. 6
  • Terms: 13 full terms
  • 2016 margin of victory: 27 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 14 points
Featured

The African-American vote nosedived in 2016

The United States saw a big decline in African-American voter turnout between 2012 and 2016, reaching its lowest point since 2000. Read on to see the change in minority voter turnout, state by state.

Data: Census Bureau; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

Why it matters: There's been so much discussion of the impact of unprecedented factors in the 2016 election — including Russian meddling in social media — that it's easy to forget more basic factors, like the steep drop in the African-American vote since Barack Obama's two elections as president.

Why it happened: A dip in enthusiasm without Obama on the ballot, as well as restrictive voter ID laws. Among the eight states that instituted strict voter ID laws since 2008, five of them saw immediate drops in minority voter turnout, including dramatic dips in Wisconsin, North Dakota and Georgia.

Data: Census Bureau, National Conference of State Legislatures; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

The impact: Between 2012 and 2016, African-Americans shifted from overrepresented to underrepresented among the voters who turned out, according to a Brookings Institution analysis of U.S. census data published in May.


Featured

Fox News has spent 35x more time on Weinstein than O'Reilly

Screengrab via Fox News

An analysis from left-leaning media watchdog Media Matters for America breaks down how much time Fox News has spent covering Harvey Weinstein compared to Bill O'Reilly, since the New York Times broke stories describing sexual harassment allegations against the two men:

  • 20 minutes and 46 seconds covering the O'Reilly accusations since the April 1 NYT story
  • 12.5 hours covering Weinstein since the Oct. 5 NYT story
Why it matters: Accounts about O'Reilly and Roger Ailes suggest Fox News harbored one of the most toxic work environments in the media business, but in its coverage, the network points the finger elsewhere.
Featured

Manchin: This isn't Trump's tax plan

Chuck Kennedy / Axios

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), speaking with Mike Allen at an Axios event about bipartisanship in Washington, said some Democrats —including him — might vote for President Trump's tax cuts, but that the plan would have to change.

"I don't think this is his tax policy," Manchin said. "He and I were talking and the President said, 'Joe, this is not going to be a tax cut for the rich. People like me.' And I said, 'Mr. President, that is a great place to start.'"

Why it matters: As a red-state Democratic senator, Manchin is a prime candidate to vote with Republicans on tax reform. These comments show he'll insist on changes.

More Manchin:

  • On Trump's attitude toward bipartisanship: "He's much more comfortable doing a bipartisan deal than holding the partisan line."
  • Manchin called for "60 Minutes" opioid whistleblower and former DEA agent Joe Rannazzisi to be the White House drug czar (Trump's previous pick was bounced as a result of the CBS report): "The drug czar has to be somebody that has the expertise, has the medical background and has been personally involved."
  • What needs to change in Washington: 1. No more fundraising against fellow sitting members of Congress. 2. "Change the way we redistrict...Use a computer-driven model that gives us more balance."
  • What he told Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer: "Chuck, if people like me can't get elected, you'll never be in the majority."

Other guests at the event...Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.):

  • On Trump: "I'm not obsessed with the President. There are those for and against him who are obsessed with him. I don't think that's healthy."
  • On bipartisanship: "Once we have a couple bipartisan wins, Congress can be conditioned into this kind of behavior."

Rep. Josh Gottenheimer (D-N.J.):

  • On House Democrats voting for tax cuts: "A lot of us want to get there." He said it's a regional issue, based in part on preserving the state and local tax deduction.
  • On chances of bipartisan Alexander-Murray health care bill passing: "I'm actually pretty optimistic."
Featured

Maggie Haberman on Trump's moods

Evan Vucci / AP, New York Times Facebook Live screenshot

Speaking on a New York Times panel Thursday evening, Maggie Haberman discussed the extreme emotions she's observed from President Trump during the campaign and the presidency.

Why it matters: Few people are able to explain Trump as well as Haberman. Known as the 'Trump Whisperer', the paper's White House correspondent often complements her regular coverage with public commentary about the man she has covered dating back to the New York tabloids in the '90s.

The varying degrees of Trump:

Humiliation: "The Access Hollywood tape is the only time in my memory when Donald Trump was humiliated. And he really was humiliated. He does not experience these things the way most people do, but he was then."

  • 'Undone': "When he came downstairs at Trump Tower that day, the day after the tape dropped. He came downstairs and there had been an impromptu rally in front of Trump Tower. And Trump walked out the glass doors unannounced...and he did a power salute and people were pawing...It was really scary because I felt like anything could happen at that moment because he clearly was undone. And the next night was when he brought Bill Clinton's accusers to the debate."

Anger: "The only rally that I can think of that felt really similar to the campaign was Arizona (on August 22). His tone has not been as intense as it has been during the campaign, except for that one...That night he was very angry. That was the night that [the NYT] reported about his feud with Mitch McConnell. And the story broke when he was on Air Force One, he didn't read it. They were trying to keep it from him. And it flashed on TV on Air Force One."

Happiness: "The happiest that I have ever seen him is when he was at Mar-a-Lago because he's sort of relaxed and he's playing greeter. It's like he's hosting a big party. There are aspects of this job that I think he thought were going to be like that. The governing piece has been a challenge."

Featured

Trump spikes the football on NFL protests

Via Giphy

This morning, President Trump reveled in the wake of a memo NFL commissioner Roger Goodell sent to league owners.

ESPN's Adam Schefter first reported on the memo, which told owners:

Like many of our fans, we believe that everyone should stand for the National Anthem. It is an important moment in our game. We want to honor our flag and our country, and our fans expect that of us. We also care deeply about our players and respect their opinions and concerns about critical social issues. The controversy over the Anthem is a barrier to having honest conversations and making real progress on the underlying issues. We need to move past this controversy, and we want to do that together with our players.

What's next: NFL owners will have a meeting next week, in which potential policy and punishment for protests during the anthem will be hashed out.

Update: The NFL has responded to Trump's tweet with a statement:

Commentary this morning about the Commissioner's position on the Anthem is not accurate. As we said yesterday, there will be a discussion of these issues at the owners meeting next week.