Chris Canipe
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The U.S. opts out of global trade, opening the door to China

Data: The World Bank; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios
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How guns move across state lines

The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives traced more than 211,000 guns back to their original point of purchase on behalf of law enforcement agencies in 2016. Of those, roughly 71 percent were originally sold in the state they were found, while the rest were from out of state. This interactive map shows the pattern of how guns move from state to state.

Note: Map shows only the top 10 out-of-state sources for traces run from each state; Data: Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives; Chart: Chris Canipe

Why it matters: It's often impossible to establish the chain of ownership from owner to original point of sale. Firearms legally change hands without a paper trail through private purchases, including those made at gun shows. Additional restrictions on how records can be stored can make the entire chain even harder to trace.

Most ATF traces are run at the request of law enforcement agencies seeking information on guns recovered at crime scenes or confiscated during traffic stops. Not all recovered firearms are traced, but those that are can tell us a lot about how guns move between states.

Here are some key takeaways from the data:

  • Roughly 71 percent of guns traced by the ATF in 2016 originate in the same state in which they were confiscated. Washington, D.C. had the highest ratio of out-of-state traces at 96 percent. New Jersey and New York were the next highest, at 79 percent and 73 percent.
  • States with stricter gun laws tend to have more traces originating in neighboring states.
  • Illinois requires background checks for private sales and a 72-hour waiting periods for handgun purchases. Neighboring Indiana does not. Thirty percent of out-of-state guns in Illinois originated from Indiana.

Go deeper: Gun Laws Stop At State Lines, But Guns Don't

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Here’s who gets the tax cuts (and who doesn’t)

The House Republican tax bill would give tax cuts to people in most income brackets, but not all — creating potential problems for Republican leaders who promised tax cuts for everyone. Here's how the tax cuts would turn into tax increases for some Americans in the later years, and who would get the deepest cuts, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation.

Data: The Joint Committee on Taxation; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

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The African-American vote nosedived in 2016

The United States saw a big decline in African-American voter turnout between 2012 and 2016, reaching its lowest point since 2000. Read on to see the change in minority voter turnout, state by state.

Data: Census Bureau; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

Why it matters: There's been so much discussion of the impact of unprecedented factors in the 2016 election — including Russian meddling in social media — that it's easy to forget more basic factors, like the steep drop in the African-American vote since Barack Obama's two elections as president.

Why it happened: A dip in enthusiasm without Obama on the ballot, as well as restrictive voter ID laws. Among the eight states that instituted strict voter ID laws since 2008, five of them saw immediate drops in minority voter turnout, including dramatic dips in Wisconsin, North Dakota and Georgia.

Data: Census Bureau, National Conference of State Legislatures; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

The impact: Between 2012 and 2016, African-Americans shifted from overrepresented to underrepresented among the voters who turned out, according to a Brookings Institution analysis of U.S. census data published in May.


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U.S. wind projects completed or under development in 2017

Data: American Wind Energy Association; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

The American Wind Energy Association, industry's main trade group, has released its latest snapshot of U.S. development. A few takeaways and numbers from the wealth of new data:

  • Check out the chart above. It's a very busy time in the industry, with 13,759 megawatts of power capacity under construction, and another 15, 875 MW in "advanced" development — that is, projects that aren't under construction yet but are clearly in the pipeline thanks to steps such as a signed power purchase contract or other factors.
  • Growth: That combined 29,634 megawatts of capacity under construction or in the pipeline is a 27% year-over-year increase, according to AWEA. For context, the total amount of nationwide installed capacity at the end of 2016 was just over 82,000 MW.
  • Where it's happening: "Consistent with the previous quarter, 30% of combined activity is located in the Midwest. An additional 23% is located in Texas, followed by the Mountain West states (20%) and the Plains states (18%)," the report states.
  • All done: 2,892 MW of wind power capacity has been brought online through the first three quarters of the year.
  • Corporate procurement: The report notes that some familiar names — Anheuser-Busch, Cummins, JPMorgan Chase, and Kimberly-Clark — all signed wind power purchase agreements for the first time.
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Here’s what insurers will lose if health care deal doesn’t pass

The health care deal by Sens. Lamar Alexander and Patty Murray is the best chance for insurers to regain the Affordable Care Act subsidies President Trump wants to cut off. But there's no guarantee it can pass Congress and get to Trump's desk. Here's a look at the $1 billion in losses insurers would suffer through the end of this year if the subsidies end, per the consulting firm Avalere.

Data: Avalere; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

The bottom line: Florida, California, and Texas insurers would be hardest hit, with Florida insurers alone losing $200 million. They have to provide the subsidies to low and middle-income people even if they don't get reimbursed — but some will raise their rates or even pull out of the markets if they have to face those kinds of losses.

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Who’s in the line of fire in the ACA subsidy wars

Data: Kaiser Family Foundation; Daily Kos Elections; Census Bureau; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

The Trump administration's decision to stop paying the Affordable Care Act's cost-sharing reduction subsidies will affect ACA customers in Republican-leaning congressional districts as well as Democratic ones. Here's a look at how many people could feel the impact in districts that voted for President Trump, compared to those in districts that voted for Hillary Clinton.

The details: This year, 11.1 million people were enrolled in ACA marketplace plans or in a Basic Health Plan created by the law. Of those, 5.9 million live in Republican-held congressional districts and 5.2 million live in districts held by Democrats, per the Kaiser Family Foundation.

The impact: The cost-sharing reduction subsidies are going to 58 percent of the people who are enrolled in ACA marketplace plans. In all, about 7 million people don't receive any financial assistance with their premiums, so they'd pay the full cost when health insurance companies raise their rates. But others could be affected if health insurers decided to pull out of the markets rather than deal with the instability.

Go deeper: Trump states are hit hardest by the subsidy cutoff, per the Associated Press.

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How Puerto Rico shipping traffic dropped after Hurricane Maria

Data: MarineTraffic.com; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

Shipping traffic into Puerto Rico dropped off dramatically when Hurricane Maria hit the island on Sept. 20, and was slow to pick up again in the days that followed as the country scrambled to acquire relief supplies. The data comes from MarineTraffic.com, which tracks the position of maritime traffic in real time.

What you're seeing: When the traffic resumed, most of the ships docked in San Juan. But that doesn't necessarily mean relief supplies are making it to the island. The shipping traffic includes all kinds of ships — anything from cargo vessels to tankers, passenger boats or tug boats.

The back story: The Trump administration weathered criticism in the crucial few days following the storm for not waiving the Jones Act, a 1920s law requiring ships carrying goods within the United States to be built, owned and operated by U.S. citizens. The administration waived the Jones Act on Sept. 28, but reports suggest it hasn't had the desired effect of encouraging foreign ships to bring supplies to Puerto Rico.
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Trump disapproval has soared in every state

Since January, President Trump's disapproval rating has jumped in every state, with the increases ranging from 9.6% (Alabama) to 18.8% (Illinois).

Among states that Trump won, he is now above 50% disapproval in Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Data: Morning Consult; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

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One in five American children live with hunger

The United States has one of the worst rates of child hunger among high-income countries. A recent UNICEF analysis puts it in perspective: About 20% of American children live in food-insecure households, meaning they lack access to safe and nutritious foods.

The big picture: Child hunger is a worldwide problem, with some of the world's poorest countries in Africa reporting rates upwards of 70%. But among wealthy nations as defined by the World Bank, the United States has the fourth worst child hunger problem, followed only by Lithuania, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay.

Note: Food insecurity data represents households with children under age 15 that lacked access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food in 2014-15; Data: UNICEF; World Bank; Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

Key takeaways:

  • The study measured how many children in each country live in households that cannot provide access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food.
  • South Sudan and Liberia, both in the lowest income category, have the highest rates of child hunger at 92% and 89% respectively.
  • Japan has a rate of only 1%, which is the lowest among wealthy countries and overall.
  • The United States is the richest country, in terms of GDP per capita, among the high-income countries with the top five steepest rates of child hunger.
  • Countries with lower rates of child hunger than the United States include Vietnam (18%), Myanmar (17%) and Ukraine (15%), all of which fall into the lower-middle income category.
The bottom line: "You can throw food at the problem, and it will seemingly go away," but that's not a sustainable solution, John Ricketts of the nonprofit group Feed the Children told Axios. Hunger is tied to education and economic mobility, and the public and private sectors need to find solutions that break cycles of generational poverty in the United States to tackle child hunger, he said.