How your air conditioner plays catch-up to regulations

Environmental rules, like any regulation, upend industries and business behavior in obscure ways. Ultimately, however, the rules usually leave consumers on the hook for the costs. I know because I'm one of them.

What you need to know: Nearly 90% of U.S. homes have air conditioners, which will need repairs at one time or another. If a technician encourages replacement of an A/C unit because of environmental rules, there are three refrigerants you need to know about, and three regulatory transitions too.

Dive deeper: Read the rest of my column in the Axios stream here.

Business news: big power deal, oil outlook, Gazprom rising

• "With GE Industrial Solutions, we strengthen our Number 2 position in electrification globally and expand our access to the attractive North American market," ABB CEO Ulrich Spiesshofer said in a statement.

• The GE unit — which makes a wide range of electrical equipment like transformers and circuit breakers — had revenues of $2.7 billion last year, according to ABB.

• Go deeper: The Wall Street Journal explores how the deal is part of GE's efforts to streamline its sprawling operations.

• "Bloated crude inventories have started to shrink, and products markets — particularly diesel — are getting tighter. If 2016 was about $50 a barrel, it's $60 a barrel this year," Bloomberg reports.

• Bloomberg also passes along the view of a top BP trader who argues that the production-cutting deal should be extended beyond the first quarter of next year in order to rebalance markets.

• Reporting from the same event, Reuters reports on one executive's forecast that U.S. crude oil exports could grow to meet 5% of global demand within five years "as refiners seek more low-sulfur crude to meet stricter rules for cleaner fuels."

Changing of the guard: S&P Global Platts is out with its annual energy company rankings, and this year Russia's state-owned gas and oil giant Gazprom tops the list, ending the long reign of ExxonMobil, which is now 9th.

• You can see the full 250-company list, and compare this year's rankings to prior years, right here. It's based on "asset worth, revenues, profits, and return on invested capital."

On our radar: Clean Energy Week and Capitol Hill

Get ready: An array of energy industry groups — representing wind and solar, biomass, LNG, nuclear and more — have dubbed this week "National Clean Energy Week" and scheduled a suite of events, like this symposium tomorrow where Energy secretary Rick Perry and Interior secretary Ryan Zinke are slated to appear.

Flashback: Amy wrote about the effort and the messaging behind it here, noting that the groups are seeking to "highlight how the industry is creating jobs and providing reliable electricity, with less focus on the sector's role combating climate change."

The other side: Some environmentalists are chafing at the messaging and lobbying blitz because groups involved include fossil-fuel organizations, including the American Petroleum Institute, as well as the nuclear power industry's main trade group and others. (The full list of groups is here.)

• The environmentalists are warning of "greenwashing," and in a letter to Congress, around a dozen green groups warn that "[t]axpayer dollars should not support dangerous and dirty technologies masquerading as 'clean energy.'" Groups behind the letter include 350.org, the Center for Biological Diversity, and Friends of the Earth.

A few other things on our radar this week in Congress...

DOE nominees: The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee meets tomorrow to hear from nominees for two major Energy Department jobs: assistant secretary for fossil energy and assistant secretary for electricity delivery and energy reliability.

Tech in focus: Also Tuesday, a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee examines "technology's role in empowering consumers." This hearing will examine a suite of emerging technologies like microgrids, storage, and other distributed energy resources.

Nuclear: One more on a packed Tuesday — a House Oversight and Government Reform subcommittee will look into nuclear waste storage and management policy.

Into the Great Wide Open on solar

Big picture: This sums it up pretty well...

A Goldman Sachs note this morning says that Friday's big International Trade Commission ruling on solar was "largely expected," but adds:

• "By 11/13, the ITC will recommend specific trade restrictions, where expectations appear to be more wide-ranging as to the extent and ultimate impact of any imposed financial remedies."
• Simply put, things are going to be murky for a while, and that's especially true because the White House, under U.S. trade law, has wide-ranging discretion to follow whatever the ITC recommends or do something different, and either more or less aggressive.

What's next: We'll spend more time with this in the coming weeks, but there are a couple of things to watch and consider in the next phases, beginning with briefs due to the ITC this week and then a public hearing October 3.

1. Trade issues: One is how the outside parties opposed to tariffs suggest that the White House may be able to thread the needle of imposing new trade penalties without causing solar panel costs to skyrocket so much that new projects become uneconomical.

• For instance: "Under global trade rules, a country can exempt a product from safeguard import measures from another country with which it has a free-trade agreement. If the ITC and the Trump administration insist on restricting imports in this case, they should consider this as an alternative strategy," notes Clark Packard, an analyst with the free-market R Street Institute, in a primer the group recirculated over the weekend in response to the ruling.

2. Coal question: Another wrinkle is whether the White House will view the potential trade penalties as another tool to assist coal, in addition to a chance to show a muscular trade policy imposing restrictions that hit exports from solar companies in Asia and elsewhere.

• Moody's analysts have argued that imposing tariffs that stymie investment in solar energy could extend the life of some U.S. coal-fired power plants.

More: Here's a little perspective on that idea, from an energy expert with the Council on Foreign Relations...

• "I think there will be at least a small lift for coal. The reason is that less solar coming online means wholesale prices won't drop as much in each market, meaning coal plants can make more revenue," Varun Sivaram tells Axios in an email.

• "Coal plants still are going to struggle to compete with cheap gas, assuming gas prices stay low. But the marginal effect of less solar is probably to help out both coal and gas by raising wholesale prices," Sivaram said.

One good listen: Trump and U.S. energy "dominance"

Big picture: Good stuff on the latest episode of The President's Inbox, a Council on Foreign Relations podcast, where author Meghan O'Sullivan offers a lucid and helpful view of the U.S. energy boom and how it is shaking up markets and geopolitics.

Here are a couple of the many interesting points from O'Sullivan:

LNG and geopolitics: "I am not a big believer that the U.S. is going to capture a lot of Russia's market in Europe," said O'Sullivan, a former George W. Bush adviser, casting doubt on the prospect of using U.S. LNG to counter Russian influence.

Why? Longtime supplier Russia, facing more global market competition, has been willing to alter its business practices and renegotiate prices, and there are newer entrants on the global scene.

• "A lot of foreign policy people, who may not be market people, think about, 'Well, we should be able to take away the market share from Russia, and that should be easily done and there should be no question that this is a good thing.' That overlooks the fact that this trade is done by companies, not countries or governments, and so it has to be commercial. So there is a big price element there," she said.

China: The surge in U.S. oil-and-gas production and all the supplies sloshing around global markets mean China is less anxious about access to energy, which has a beneficial effect.

• "I do think that this energy abundant landscape that we are talking about puts China in a more comfortable position in the existing network of norms and institutions," she said.

Industry to Trump: Keep Obama climate policy

The world's biggest air conditioning and chemical companies are urging Trump to defend one of his predecessor's landmark climate policies, the Kigali amendment. So far it's working.

Why it matters: The policy, to phase down greenhouse gases emitted from refrigerants in appliances like air conditioners and refrigerators, is the only Obama-era climate policy Trump hasn't targeted for repeal. Companies, led by global chemical makers Honeywell and Chemours, are lobbying the administration to defend a regulation and support a global treaty on the issue, according to industry officials, administration officials and others involved in the issue.

Bottom line: Companies have spent millions complying with the policy and other similar standards around the world over the past several years — and they don't want that money to go to waste. To the industry and administration, this is more about financial investments than it is about climate change. That makes it non-controversial compared with the Paris climate deal.

Read the rest on the Axios stream here.

On our radar this week: solar trade decision, pipelines, nominations

Big decision: The U.S. International Trade Commission faces a Friday deadline to decide whether imported solar cells and modules are injuring the domestic panel manufacturing industry. If they decide the answer is yes — and most expect they will — the focus moves to what type of trade penalties the White House may decide to impose.

• Why it matters: It's a big deal for the solar industry. The two manufacturers behind the petition say companies operating in the U.S. need relief from cheap Asian imports. But the wider solar industry is against the petition from Suniva and SolarWorld, arguing that the import penalties they're seeking would raise panel prices enough to wreak havoc on the economics of solar energy projects, posing a major threat to the sector's continued growth.

Nominations in focus, part 1: The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee will vote Tuesday on White House nominees for two open slots on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, as well as picks for senior roles at the Interior and Energy Departments.

Nominations in focus, part 2: On Wednesday the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will hear from nominees for several senior positions at the Environmental Protection Agency, including Bill Wehrum, Trump's pick to be the agency's top air pollution regulator.

• Why it matters: Wehrum will play a major role in EPA's controversial and sure-to-be-litigated efforts to roll back Obama-era regulations to cut carbon emissions from power plants. Expect Wehrum and another nominee, general counsel pick Matthew Leopold, to get questions about the topic.

Pipeline push: Texans for Natural Gas is stepping up its pro-pipeline digital advocacy this week with the launch of a social media campaign via Twitter, internet ads, and a mobile-focused Facebook push that a spokesman tells Axios will run well into the six figures.

• Why it matters: The industry-backed group is seeking to promote pipelines and emphasize their safety at a time when environmental groups have been organizing against specific infrastructure projects. For instance, the group will release a paper later this week that says pipelines support 165,000 jobs in Texas and "will contribute $374 billion in total economic output between 2014 and 2024."

What's new and what's not with Trump's Paris pullout, part 1

Buzz: The big question right now is whether this week's U.N. General Assembly meeting and sideline chatter will reveal...

• If there's any real evidence that the White House is actually seeking a pathway to staying in the Paris agreement
• How the U.S. might seek to work with other countries on the nexus of climate and energy more broadly, even as the White House keeps pushing ahead with pro-fossil fuels policies

What's next: White House economic advisor Gary Cohn is slated to host a breakfast meeting in New York this morning with energy and climate officials from other nations.

Where it stands: All heck broke loose over the weekend when the WSJ, citing comments by White House advisor Everett Eissenstat at a meeting in Canada, reported that the U.S. would not withdraw from Paris, a report the WSJ later softened.

• The White House batted down the claim and reiterated that the U.S. is bailing (a process that actually takes years), "unless we can re-enter on terms that are more favorable to our country," per the administration's official statement.
• National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson also reiterated versions of that statement on the Sunday talking head shows.

What's new: Nothing and everything. The Trump administration's position, spelled out in June, is that the U.S. is theoretically open to staying in Paris under some kind of revised terms.

• What this means: Realistically that would probably mean a watered-down U.S. emissions pledge (reflecting the reality that Trump is abandoning Obama-era domestic climate rules), and maybe some kind of symbolic statement from other parties, because there's no appetite among other countries for rewriting the 2015 pact.

What's new and what's not with Trump's Paris pullout, part 2

Continuing our discussion of comments surrounding the administration's stance on the Paris climate accord, is Andrew Light, who was a senior climate aide in Obama's State Department. He assesses the state of play and known unknowns in an email to Axios on Sunday evening...

• "This round of comments ‎that we've heard over the weekend isn't anything new. The National Security Council and National Economic Council figures who argued for not withdrawing from the Paris Agreement have been saying for the last couple months that the administration may be willing to 're-engage,' and that this likely would come through the creation of a new U.S. pledge under Paris. It's good to see senior figures out there publicly talking about it."

• "We don't, however, know two critical things. First, what are they thinking about in terms of a new pledge, the time line, and the process for creating it? Second, will President Trump ultimately support withdrawing the withdrawal? If I were invited to the breakfast with Gary Cohn, I'd be trying to find out as much as I could on those two issues," said Light, who is now a distinguished senior fellow with the World Resources Institute.

Thought bubble: There are two things to keep in mind here.

• One is that for all the talk of "renegotiation," the primary deliberation is internal — under the Paris agreement, countries set their own emissions-cutting targets.
• A second thing to watch as Cohn gathers with other countries' officials is what type of U.S. multilateral engagement might be in the offing that's technically outside of the formal U.N. framework, but meant to influence it or compliment it.

Flashback: There's precedent here. George W. Bush is correctly remembered for bailing on his campaign pledge to regulate carbon emissions. Less well remembered is that late in his presidency, Bush convened something called the "major economies meeting on energy security and climate change," the predecessor to the Obama administration-led Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate that met for years.

On my screen: electric cars, oil markets, microgrids

ICYMI: The New York Times published an important piece from China on Friday, reporting that General Motors chief executive Mary Barra "cautioned against the growing trend of officials in China and a number of other countries making plans to phase out sales of gasoline- and diesel-powered cars."

• What to watch: Whether officials from other major automakers start pushing back against plans by France, the U.K. and other nations to set timetables in coming decades for the phaseout of internal combustion engines.

Oil markets: Bloomberg reports on concerns of a top International Energy Agency analyst that there's not enough industry spending on new supply projects to avoid a crunch in coming years. Here's what they quoted Neil Atkinson, head of IEA's oil markets division, as saying in Bahrain Sunday:

• "There are still not enough signs of investment beginning to return, and that raises the risk of tightening of the market in the next five years and a risk to the stability of oil prices...There is at least a possibility of going back to the situation we had 10 years ago where oil prices were very, very high at a time when demand was growing."

In my ears: The latest edition of The Interchange, one of Greentech Media's podcasts, is a timely discussion of the role microgrids can play in helping to create resilience to powerful storms that wreak havoc on traditional power networks — and how some policymakers' reluctance to address climate change head-on in their planning (hello Florida) could affect deployment of the technology.

Arctic policy: The Washington Post reports on a quiet Interior Department effort to enable industry seismic testing to gauge oil resources in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, even though drilling in the Alaska region remains banned and would require an act of Congress to allow.

Climate change is like diabetes for the planet

There's a lot of talk lately about how climate change is affecting the hurricanes and the wildfires hitting the U.S. right now. The simple answer: Climate change doesn't cause extreme weather events. It can make them worse, and many scientists are saying that's a factor in these events.

My thought bubble: That makes climate change like diabetes for the planet.

• People with diabetes should make sure their blood sugar levels don't get too high or too low. Diabetes can make other health conditions worse, especially when left unchecked.
• Most world leaders are seeking to reduce greenhouse gases from fossil-fuel production and other human activity. Climate change can make naturally occurring things worse, like droughts and heatwaves. Established science predicts risks will grow the longer we leave carbon emissions unchecked.

The bottom line: Climate change is not a problem we can solve, full stop, like diabetes isn't completely curable. However, we can mitigate its impact by simultaneously cutting carbon emissions and adapting to a warmer planet.

Click here to read the rest of the column in the Axios stream.

Irma's energy effect

Please keep an eye on the Axios stream today for news about Hurricane Irma. Here's a quick rundown of some of energy impact:

Power: "The storm left more than 5.7 million customers without power and littered the state with downed trees, downed power lines and standing water," CNN reported Monday morning, citing information from Gov. Rick Scott's office.

• Roughly 58% of the state's power customers have lost electricity, ABC notes. You can check on power losses in specific counties and by utility here.
• Full power restoration is expected to take weeks.

Petroleum: A Goldman Sachs research note Monday morning points out that Irma will dent oil demand, but not production and processing, given the relative absence of petroleum infrastructure in its path.

• They estimate that Irma and Harvey combined will cut around 600,000 barrels per day of crude demand in the U.S. this month. Reuters looks here are how oil traders are responding to the news.

Climate: The New York Times looks at the politics of hurricanes and global warming. For scientists, the influence of global warming on the impact of hurricanes is a logical conversation...

• "But in Washington, where science is increasingly political, the fact that oceans and atmosphere are warming and that the heat is propelling storms into superstorms has become as sensitive as talking about gun control in the wake of a mass shooting," the NYT story notes.

Interesting discussion: The mass evacuations in Florida prompted Bloomberg New Energy Finance transportation expert Colin McKerracher to pose this question on Twitter:

• "Honest question to those who think almost everybody will switch to mobility as a service by 2030: How will an evacuation of 6.5m ppl work?"
• Check out the whole discussion here.

On our radar, part 1: carbon capture push in Congress

Carbon capture: Backers of more aggressive federal support for commercialization of projects to trap and store carbon emissions from coal-fired power will look for momentum this week.

What's happening: On Wednesday, the Senate Environment and Public Works (EPW) Committee will hold a hearing on the topic, while a day later the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions will hold a symposium on the topic with four senators, industry officials, and other experts.

• One major focus will be building support for bipartisan legislation that would expand federal tax credits for carbon capture and storage (and use in enhanced oil recovery) and make the incentive more valuable. Across Capitol Hill, GOP Rep. Mike Conaway is circulating a letter seeking cosponsors for a House companion bill.
• The tax bill isn't technically before EPW (the Finance Committee has jurisdiction). But the Senate hearing will explore other ways to speed up deployment of carbon capture technologies that are in the wheelhouse of EPW, which oversees a suite of environmental laws that govern the topic, such as the National Environmental Policy Act
• One issue in particular that's slated to come up is the need for pipeline infrastructure to expand enhanced oil recovery using CO2, a GOP aide said.

On our radar, part 2: climate, FERC, Korea, oil report

A few other things to watch this week on and off Capitol Hill...

House climate tussle: When the chamber renews debate on a big spending package this week, keep an eye on a couple of looming amendment votes. Still on tap are two GOP proposals that would thwart funds for EPA methane emissions rules and would block use of Obama-era estimates of the so-called social cost of carbon, a metric that helps regulators tally the benefits of avoided emissions.

• Why it matters: While the amendments are largely symbolic, a key question is whether there could be more signals that a small but growing number of GOP lawmakers are willing to buck their party's mainstream on climate issues.

FERC member on the record: A House Energy and Commerce subcommittee will gather tomorrow for a hearing on power grid reliability. Neil Chatterjee, a new GOP member of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, will be making his first appearance before lawmakers since winning Senate confirmation.

• Why it matters: Chatterjee got lots of attention when he told FERC's in-house podcast last month that existing coal and nuclear power plants "need to be properly compensated to recognize the value they provide to the system." Now observers will be looking for signs of how those comments could be translated into policy specifics at FERC.

North Korean sanctions: The United Nations today holds a hearing on further sanctions on North Korea, that will likely pit the U.S. — which is pushing hard for a vote to cut off Kim Jong Un's lifeline of oil, most of which comes from neighboring China — against China and Russia, which are worried further sanctions will not work and will make North Korea collapse, Bloomberg reports.

Oil markets: On Wednesday the International Energy Agency will release its closely watched monthly oil market report. It's expected to address the impact of Hurricane Harvey. The report is also a monthly checkup of how IEA analysts view the progress of efforts by OPEC and Russia to ease the global supply glut.

Big in EVs: China, Uber, Tesla

All eyes on China: News broke over the weekend that Chinese officials are crafting a plan to eventually end sales of gasoline and diesel-powered cars.

The Associated Press, citing Chinese state media, reported yesterday: "The reports gave no possible target date, but Beijing is stepping up pressure on automakers to accelerate development of electrics."

Why it matters: China is the world's largest auto market. And the announcement, while vague, follows moves in a number of countries to create a horizon for the phase out of fossil-fuel vehicles. Most recently, the U.K. and France both announced over the summer that they would phase out sales in 2040.

• What to watch: How the spate of announcements will affect the next round of long-term global forecasts for EV penetration by major energy companies and analysts — and what impact that has on global crude demand. Recent projections have already been showing increased estimates for EV growth, but EVs remain a tiny portion of the global market.

Immediate impact: Reuters reports from Shanghai that Chinese companies in the EV space — including the Warren Buffet-backed BYD Co Ltd. — saw their shares surge in trading Monday on the heels of the news about an eventual phaseout of internal combustion cars.

A couple of other notes on electrics...

Uber: In case you missed it, the company pledged Friday that by the end of 2019, every car available via UberX in London will be hybrid or fully electric.

• "We're starting in the capital but aim to meet the same standard — 100% hybrid or fully electric cars on uberX with no diesels on the app — across the U.K. by the end of 2022," the company said.
• Fortune has more on the pledge here.

Solar is growing but faces headwinds

State of the ship: The Solar Energy Industries Association, the sector's main trade group, and GTM Research are out with their latest quarterly snapshot of U.S. solar photovoltaic installations and trends. A few toplines...

• The second quarter saw 2.39 gigawatts worth of solar capacity additions, making it the largest Q2 total ever (see the quarterly installations chart above).
• Yes, but: The residential rooftop market is slowing. That portion of that total additions — 563 megawatts — is 17% lower than the same three-month stretch a year earlier.
• "Slowdown in residential solar is largely a function of national installers scaling back operations in major state markets as they prioritize profitability over growth," said Austin Perea, an analyst with GTM Research.
• Predictions: Overall, the groups forecast addition of 12.4 gigawatts in 2017, a decline from the record 14.76 gigawatts added last year.
• Nonetheless, GTM Research and SEIA predict that U.S. installed solar capacity will triple over the next five years — but also warn that new import penalties on solar equipment that the White House may impose would result in a "substantial downward revision" in that prediction.

Clinton's coal flashback

Coal regrets: A snippet buried in this NYT piece on Hillary Clinton's upcoming book caught my eye. Clinton believes her biggest gaffe of the campaign was saying in Ohio that, "We're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business."

But the NYT adds:

• "Mrs. Clinton insisted that the line was taken out of context, but said Mr. Obama had fed the narrative of Democratic hostility toward coal miners by announcing a plan that set state-by-state targets for carbon emissions reductions, and a framework for meeting them, at the White House, next to the head of the Environmental Protection Agency."