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Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

As the coronavirus pandemic pushes more and more universities to switch to remote learning — at least to start — 22% of college students across all four years are planning not to enroll this fall, according to a new College Reaction/Axios poll.

Why it matters: Scores of colleges were already approaching a financial cliff before the pandemic began. Steep drops in enrollment could push some over the edge.

Students are making alternative plans for the fall.

  • Of those not returning to school, most — 73% — are working full time. Around 4% are taking classes at a different university, and 2% are doing volunteer work.
  • Freshmen who are unwilling to sacrifice the experience of a normal first year of college appear to account for a big chunk of those who are planning not to enroll this fall. Harvard, which is going fully remote, says 20% of the students in its incoming freshman class are deferring.
  • Students also recognize the risk. 85% believe they are likely (or very likely) to be exposed to the coronavirus if they're on campus this fall.

Some colleges are planning to welcome students back. And those kids are preparing for a very different college experience.

  • No more dorm life: Of the students returning to a campus, 56% are living off-campus, 7% are in single dorms and 9% are in doubles. Many universities are limiting dorm capacities.
  • Party police: A clear majority — 58% — of students say they will not tell the school if they see a peer violate campus safety protocol.
  • Tailgating is over: 77% say their school shouldn't participate in football and other sports this fall.

Methodology: The poll was conducted August 16-17 from a representative sample of 798 college students with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

College Reaction’s polling is conducted using a demographically representative panel of college students from around the country. The surveys are administered digitally and use college e-mail addresses as an authentication tool to ensure current enrollment in a four-year institution. The target for the general population sample was students currently enrolled in accredited 4-year institutions in the United States.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to indicate that 58% of students say that will not report COVID-19 policy violations.

Go deeper

Nov 29, 2020 - Health

New York City to reopen public schools with weekly testing

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio in New York on Nov. 28. Photo: Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images

Some New York City schools will be allowed to reopen for in-person learning as early as Dec. 7, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced Sunday.

The state of play: De Blasio said schools will no longer be forced to shutter when the city hits a 3% COVID-19 test positivity rate, but he did not specify what the new threshold will be. The school district will mandate weekly tests for 20% of children in each school, and students will not be tested before they return.

"Atmospheric river" swings Northern California from drought to flood

Satellite view of the bomb cyclone swirling off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and the atmospheric river affecting California on Oct. 24. Photo: CIRA/RAMMB

A series of powerful "atmospheric river" storms are delivering historic amounts of rainfall across parts of drought-stricken California and the Pacific Northwest — triggering widespread power outages and flooding.

Why it matters: The strong atmospheric river, packing large amounts of moisture, is causing Northern California to whiplash from drought to flood.

“You blew it”: GOP activist turns on corporations over vaccine mandates

The chairman of the American Conservative Union said on "Axios on HBO" he accepts "Joe Biden is my president, and I want him to succeed," but predicted Republicans retake the House and Senate in 2022 — with greater than 50% odds Donald Trump runs in 2024.

The big picture: In a joint interview with his wife, Mercedes, Matt Schlapp also refused to share their vaccination status. And he told corporate America "you blew it" by embracing vaccine mandates and liberal social stances that have alienated GOP voters and politicians.

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