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Aerial view of coal being unloaded from a cargo ship at Lianyungang port on October 14, 2021 in Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province of China. Photo: Wang Jianmin/VCG via Getty Images.

Nations' formal emissions targets submitted under the Paris climate agreement, even if implemented, would fall well short of the deal's benchmarks for holding global warming in check, a new United Nations analysis concludes.

Why it matters: The report comes a week before a major UN climate summit convenes in Glasgow, Scotland that's aimed at pushing the world toward much more aggressive steps to rein in planet-warming emissions.

Threat level: The report analyzed 165 pledges, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), including revised 2030 targets submitted as of mid-October.

  • Overall, the existing plans would bring greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 that are 16% higher than 2010 levels, the UN found.
  • The UN says that such an increase, "unless changed quickly," could bring temperature rise of about 2.7°C (almost 4.9°F) above preindustrial levels by the end of the century.

The big picture: The 2015 Paris deal calls for limiting warming to "well below" 2°C and ideally 1.5°C, but the latter target is fast slipping out of reach.

  • Those are benchmarks for avoiding some of the most significant harms from climate change beyond damage already baked into the cake.
  • "Overshooting the temperature goals will lead to a destabilized world and endless suffering, especially among those who have contributed the least to the GHG emissions in the atmosphere," Patricia Espinosa, the top UN climate official, said in a statement alongside the report.

Yes, but: The report analysis of 165 existing and updated NDCs considered only revisions submitted through Oct. 12.

  • A handful have arrived since. More importantly China, by far the world's largest emitter, and India, the third largest, have yet to submit revisions to their existing targets.
  • They could increase their pledges before the summit opens Oct. 31, or during the two-week event.
  • Nonetheless, targets submitted under the Paris framework are non-binding and represent aspirational goals.

Go deeper

The most startling facts in 2021 climate report

An unsettling part of the human condition today is that the year you were born will most likely be the coolest year of your life, globally speaking.

By the numbers: Newly released climate data from NOAA, NASA and Berkeley Earth show that the planet has had an unbroken streak of 45 years of warmer than average temperatures.

Fed: Rate hikes "will soon be appropriate"

The Federal Reserve's headquarters building. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Federal Reserve officials expect "it will soon be appropriate" to raise the central bank's main target interest rate, setting the stage for a rate hike at its next meeting in mid-March.

Driving the news: In a statement following a two-day meeting published Wednesday afternoon, however, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee teed up its next move without taking new action.

How long it’s taken to confirm Supreme Court justices

Expand chart
Data: Axios research, U.S. Supreme Court, Supreme Court Historical Society; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios

It takes a U.S. president an average of 70 days from the date a Supreme Court seat is vacated to nominate a replacement, according to data from the Supreme Court Historical Society.

Why it matters: With news outlets reporting liberal Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer's plans to retire, Democrats will be looking to confirm President Biden's nominee with enough time to refocus the national political debate ahead of the midterms.

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