May 16, 2018

Why climate politics might not be stuck forever

Protestors at last year's March for Science in Washington. Photo: Astrid Riecken for The Washington Post via Getty Images

A just-released paper from the Niskanen Center charts how Capitol Hill's partisan divide on the environment grew so stark in recent decades while offering a few reasons why GOP lawmakers' posture on climate could shift in the future.

Why it matters: The paper delves into demographic, economic and political forces that could eventually lead Republicans to moderate their positions.

  • Younger voters show more support for regulation than their elders, noting a GOP "generation gap" on climate. To be sure, though, a recent Pew survey showed that most millennial Republicans don't agree with the scientific mainstream on human-caused warming.
  • The fossil fuel industry represents a declining share of U.S. employment, and political giving to Republicans from renewable energy interests is growing.

One useful metric: The paper, by University of Maryland political scientist David Karol, uses League of Conservation Voters' annual rankings of lawmakers as a proxy for polarization.

Quoted: "Changes on the environment might actually prove easier for Republicans than modifying stands on issues like immigration, which connects directly to identity politics," he writes.

Be smart: Predictions of a shift in GOP lawmakers' stances on climate have been around for years, yet actual changes in posture have been very rare. Karol's paper isn't Pollyannish, but it offers a lucid look at how the landscape could eventually shift.

Go deeper

Situational awareness

Photo: Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

Catch up on today's biggest news:

  1. Mike Bloomberg offers to release women from 3 NDAs
  2. Wells Fargo to pay $3 billion to settle consumer abuse charges
  3. Bloomberg campaign says Tennessee vandalism "echoes language" from Bernie supporters
  4. Scoop: New White House personnel chief tells Cabinet liaisons to target Never Trumpers
  5. Nearly half of Republicans support pardoning Roger Stone

Wells Fargo agrees to pay $3 billion to settle consumer abuse charges

Clients use an ATM at a Wells Fargo Bank in Los Angeles, Calif. Photo: Ronen Tivony/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Wells Fargo agreed to a pay a combined $3 billion to the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday for opening millions of fake customer accounts between 2002 and 2016, the SEC said in a press release.

The big picture: The fine "is among the largest corporate penalties reached during the Trump administration," the Washington Post reports.

Bloomberg offers to release women from 3 nondisclosure agreements

Mike Bloomberg. Photo: Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

Mike Bloomberg said Friday his company will release women identified to have signed three nondisclosure agreements so they can publicly discuss their allegations against him if they wish.

Why it matters, via Axios' Margaret Talev: Bloomberg’s shift in policy toward NDAs comes as he tries to stanch his loss of female support after the Las Vegas debate. It is an effort to separate the total number of harassment and culture complaints at the large company from those directed at him personally. That could reframe the criticism against him, but also protect the company from legal fallout if all past NDAs were placed in jeopardy.