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Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

The collision of demographics, increased party ideology and broader trends like #MeToo has the 2018 midterms set to make history, and the point of that spear will be in the House.

Driving the news: Democrats have been increasingly diverse in recent decades, a trend that has gradually been matched with more political representation.

At stake on Tuesday:

  • The share of white men among House Democrats could fall to a record low of 37%, Cook Political Report analyst David Wasserman told the AP.
  • "[F]or the first time, less than half the Democratic candidates for the House are white men, and the Democrats are poised to send the first Native American and Muslim-American women to the House." [AP]

Between the lines, via Axios' Alexi McCammond: The Democratic Party says more explicitly and specifically that they care about identity and diversity and representation, so they tend to have more resources to try to fix these imbalances.

By the numbers, per the AP.

  • "Democrats have nominated more than 180 female [House] candidates... But while voters could send more than 100 of them to victory, Republicans could have fewer women than now in their ranks next year due to retirements and tough races, according to election analysts.
  • "Overall, nearly 9 in 10 House Republicans will be white menwhen the new Congress convenes in January."
  • "House Republicans now count just over a dozen minority members... Meanwhile, African-American, Latino and Asian-American lawmakers make up almost half the House Democratic caucus."

What's next: Roughly 700 millennials, mostly Democrats, are running for the ~6,000 state legislative seats up in 2018, Axios' Khorri Atkinson reports.

Go deeper

"Atmospheric river" swings Northern California from drought to flood

Satellite view of the bomb cyclone swirling off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and the atmospheric river affecting California on Oct. 24. Photo: CIRA/RAMMB

A series of powerful "atmospheric river" storms are delivering historic amounts of rainfall across parts of drought-stricken California and the Pacific Northwest — triggering widespread power outages and flooding.

Why it matters: The strong atmospheric river, packing large amounts of moisture, is causing Northern California to whiplash from drought to flood.

Updated 2 hours ago - World

Saudi dissident claims MBS said he could get "poison ring" to kill king

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attending the Saudi Green Initiative Forum, via video link, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Saturday. Photo: Royal Court of Saudi Arabia/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

A former senior Saudi intelligence official who worked with the U.S. on counterterrorism alleged to "60 Minutes" in an interview broadcast Sunday that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed in 2014 killing the kingdom's then-monarch.

Why it matters: The claim by the exiled Saad al-Jabri, whom Saudi authorities describe as "a discredited former government official," that the crown prince, known as "MBS," allegedly said he could obtain a "ring from Russia" to carry out the attack, is one of several serious but unproven allegations he made on the CBS show.

“You blew it”: GOP activist turns on corporations over vaccine mandates

The chairman of the American Conservative Union said on "Axios on HBO" he accepts "Joe Biden is my president, and I want him to succeed," but predicted Republicans retake the House and Senate in 2022 — with greater than 50% odds Donald Trump runs in 2024.

The big picture: In a joint interview with his wife, Mercedes, Matt Schlapp also refused to share their vaccination status. And he told corporate America "you blew it" by embracing vaccine mandates and liberal social stances that have alienated GOP voters and politicians.