Expand chart
Data: Brookings analysis of U.S. Census data; Table: Naema Ahmed/Axios

California is projected to lose a congressional seat for the first time next year, while states President Trump won such as Texas and Florida will likely gain seats, according to an analysis of new Census data by the Brookings Institution's William Frey.

Why it matters: It only takes a handful of seats to shift a party's power in Congress for a decade. The new data underscores the need for an accurate 2020 Census count, especially with changing demographics in states with booming populations such as Florida, Texas and Arizona.

By the numbers: If the rate of population change from July 2018 to July 2019 holds into the next year...

  • Blue states including New York, Illinois, Rhode Island and California are projected to each lose a seat.
  • Red states such as Texas, Arizona, Montana, Florida and North Carolina are projected to gain.

What to watch: Demographics are shifting in states like Florida, Texas and Arizona, which have seen an influx of Latinos who tend to skew more Democratic and are more likely to be undercounted by the census, Frey said. Texas has slowly been turning blue, and Florida has been tightly contested for years.

  • Three key swing states that voted for Trump in 2016 — Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania — are each projected to lose a congressional seat.
  • Redistricting will play a crucial role in determining how much a political party benefits from congressional reapportionment. It will have a significant impact on elections in the next decade.

The big picture: The changes come as total population growth in the U.S. reaches its lowest point since 1918 at just 0.48%.

  • For the first time in decades, the number of births minus the number of deaths was less than 1 million in the U.S., the AP reports.
  • With the aging of the population, as the baby boomers move into their 70s and 80s, there are going to be higher numbers of deaths,” Frey said.
  • Four states had more deaths than births: West Virginia, Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont.

Go deeper: The U.S. communities in danger of being overlooked in the 2020 census

Go deeper

The positions of key GOP senators on replacing Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell talks to reporters on Capitol Hill last Thursday. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

With President Trump planning to nominate his third Supreme Court justice nominee by next week, key Republican senators are indicating their stance on replacing the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg just over six weeks out from Election Day.

The big picture: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) has vowed that "Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate." But Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) told Alaska Public Media, "I would not vote to confirm a Supreme Court nominee. We are 50 some days away from an election."

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

ActBlue collects a record $91 million in hours after Ginsburg's death

A makeshift memorial in honor of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in front of the U.S. Supreme Court on Sept. 19. Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images

ActBlue received a record $91.4 million in the 28 hours following Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, the Democratic donation-processing site confirmed to Axios late Saturday.

Why it matters via the New York Times: "The unprecedented outpouring shows the power of a looming Supreme Court confirmation fight to motivate Democratic donors."

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 11:30 p.m. ET: 30,674,077 — Total deaths: 955,440— Total recoveries: 20,908,811Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 11:30 p.m. ET: 6,764,803 — Total deaths: 199,258 — Total recoveries: 2,577,446 — Total tests: 94,211,463Map.
  3. Politics: In reversal, CDC again recommends coronavirus testing for asymptomatic people.
  4. Health: The dwindling chances of eliminating COVID-19.
  5. World: Guatemalan president tests positive for COVID-19 — The countries painting their pandemic recoveries green.