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Women holding signs at the Democratic National Convention. Photo: ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images

California's top-two primary system has some critics, but it's been an early look at what the general U.S. House election typically looks like, per NYT's Nate Cohn.

By the numbers: "Since 1990, the major party vote share in top-two congressional primaries in Washington (which also uses the top-two system) and California has differed from the general election result by an average of just three percentage points."

Between the lines: "There’s generally a slight Republican bias, on the order of a little more than a point, presumably because the primary electorate tends to be somewhat older and whiter than the general electorate."

One example: In the 2016 primary, Rep. Darrell Issa earned 50.8% of the vote, and his Democratic challenger Doug Applegate got 45.5% — in the general election Issa earned 50.3% of the vote and won re-election.

What to watch: There are seven GOP-held districts in California that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. If Democrats take the lead in two of these, Cohn writes, "that would make the Democratic candidate a two-to-one (or better) favorite to win in the general election."

  • Don't ignore the long-shots. If Democrats somehow have a chance against GOP Rep. Devin Nunes, that'll be a pretty significant bellwether for November.

Yes, but: California is just a small subset of the country. “I don’t believe the Romney-Clinton districts are the only path to victory in the House," Brian Stryker, a partner at the public opinion research firm ALG and who works with various campaigns across the country, told Axios. "Nobody’s writing anything off — just look at Pennsylvania."

Go deeper

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Congressman criminally charged with lying to feds

Rep. Jeff Fortenberry. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.) has been indicted on charges he falsified records and lied to federal investigators probing an illegal foreign donation scheme, the Justice Department announced on Tuesday.

Driving the news: DOJ says a Fortenberry associate, who later cooperated with investigators, informed him he'd likely received illegal donations from an intermediary for a foreign national, but that Fortenberry denied any knowledge of such a scheme when contacted by the FBI.

"Assassin's Creed," but for schools

"Viking Age: Discovery Tour." Image via Ubisoft

For the third time since 2018, Ubisoft is releasing a nonviolent version of its latest “Assassin’s Creed” game as part of a unique effort to turn one of the medium’s most popular series into an educational tool.

Driving the news:Viking Age: Discovery Tour” transforms last year’s “Assassin’s Creed Valhalla” from a bloody 150-hour game about Viking conquest in 9th century England into a peaceful four-hour game about merchants and monks.

School enrollment fell by almost 3 million from 2019 to 2020

Kindergarten student Natalia Bayoumi holds the hand of her father Amir Bayoumi as he walks to the front door of Normont Elementary School in Harbor City, CA. Photo: Al Seib / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

The number of individuals enrolled in the U.S. education system dropped by 2.9 million from 2019 to 2020, according to new data released Tuesday by the Census Bureau.

Why it matters: This marks the lowest level of school enrollment for those under 35 years-old in over 20 years, per the Census Bureau.