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Women holding signs at the Democratic National Convention. Photo: ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images

California's top-two primary system has some critics, but it's been an early look at what the general U.S. House election typically looks like, per NYT's Nate Cohn.

By the numbers: "Since 1990, the major party vote share in top-two congressional primaries in Washington (which also uses the top-two system) and California has differed from the general election result by an average of just three percentage points."

Between the lines: "There’s generally a slight Republican bias, on the order of a little more than a point, presumably because the primary electorate tends to be somewhat older and whiter than the general electorate."

One example: In the 2016 primary, Rep. Darrell Issa earned 50.8% of the vote, and his Democratic challenger Doug Applegate got 45.5% — in the general election Issa earned 50.3% of the vote and won re-election.

What to watch: There are seven GOP-held districts in California that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. If Democrats take the lead in two of these, Cohn writes, "that would make the Democratic candidate a two-to-one (or better) favorite to win in the general election."

  • Don't ignore the long-shots. If Democrats somehow have a chance against GOP Rep. Devin Nunes, that'll be a pretty significant bellwether for November.

Yes, but: California is just a small subset of the country. “I don’t believe the Romney-Clinton districts are the only path to victory in the House," Brian Stryker, a partner at the public opinion research firm ALG and who works with various campaigns across the country, told Axios. "Nobody’s writing anything off — just look at Pennsylvania."

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Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

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  3. Vaccine: Florida requiring proof of residency to get vaccine — CDC extends interval between vaccine doses for exceptional cases.
  4. World: Hong Kong to put tens of thousands on lockdown as cases surge.
  5. Sports: 2021 Tokyo Olympics hang in the balance.
  6. 🎧 Podcast: Carbon Health's CEO on unsticking the vaccine bottleneck.

Trump impeachment trial to start week of Feb. 8, Schumer says

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Photo: The Washington Post via Getty

The Senate will begin former President Trump's impeachment trial the week of Feb. 8, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced Friday on the Senate floor.

The state of play: Schumer announced the schedule after reaching an agreement with Republicans. The House will transmit the article of impeachment against the former president late Monday.

4 hours ago - Health

CDC extends interval between COVID vaccine doses for exceptional cases

Photo: Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty

Patients can space out the two doses of the coronavirus vaccine by up to six weeks if it’s "not feasible" to follow the shorter recommended window, according to updated guidance from the Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention.

Driving the news: With the prospect of vaccine shortages and a low likelihood that supply will expand before April, the latest changes could provide a path to vaccinate more Americans — a top priority for President Biden.