Women holding signs at the Democratic National Convention. Photo: ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images

California's top-two primary system has some critics, but it's been an early look at what the general U.S. House election typically looks like, per NYT's Nate Cohn.

By the numbers: "Since 1990, the major party vote share in top-two congressional primaries in Washington (which also uses the top-two system) and California has differed from the general election result by an average of just three percentage points."

Between the lines: "There’s generally a slight Republican bias, on the order of a little more than a point, presumably because the primary electorate tends to be somewhat older and whiter than the general electorate."

One example: In the 2016 primary, Rep. Darrell Issa earned 50.8% of the vote, and his Democratic challenger Doug Applegate got 45.5% — in the general election Issa earned 50.3% of the vote and won re-election.

What to watch: There are seven GOP-held districts in California that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. If Democrats take the lead in two of these, Cohn writes, "that would make the Democratic candidate a two-to-one (or better) favorite to win in the general election."

  • Don't ignore the long-shots. If Democrats somehow have a chance against GOP Rep. Devin Nunes, that'll be a pretty significant bellwether for November.

Yes, but: California is just a small subset of the country. “I don’t believe the Romney-Clinton districts are the only path to victory in the House," Brian Stryker, a partner at the public opinion research firm ALG and who works with various campaigns across the country, told Axios. "Nobody’s writing anything off — just look at Pennsylvania."

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NYC's coronavirus positivity rate spikes to highest since June

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New York City's coronavirus positivity rate has ticked up to 3.25%, its highest since June, Mayor Bill de Blasio said at a news conference on Tuesday.

Why it matters: The jump — from 1.93% on Monday — came on the first day that public elementary classrooms reopened in the city after months of closures, but guidelines state that all public schools will have to shut if the citywide seven-day positivity rate stays above 3%.