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BP boosts electric car outlook but says oil isn't going away

BP has increased its long-term forecast for the rise of electric vehicles and sees a potential peak in global oil demand within two decades, but is nonetheless warning that even the more bullish scenarios they modeled will not lead to a collapse in oil consumption.

The forecast is in its just-published 2018 Energy Outlook, a big collection of scenarios for global fuels, power and emissions trends through 2040.

Reproduced from BP Energy Outlook 2018; Chart: Axios Visuals

Bottom line: The "evolving transition" scenario sees growth in global demand for liquid fuels (largely a proxy for oil) ending in around 2035. More aggressive scenarios, including one that models global ban on sales of internal combustion (ICE) vehicles starting in 2040, show a more aggressive move away from oil, as the chart above shows.