Sign up for our daily briefing
Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.
Catch up on the day's biggest business stories
Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter
Stay on top of the latest market trends
Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.
Sports news worthy of your time
Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.
Tech news worthy of your time
Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.
Get the inside stories
Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver
Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines
Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities
Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay
Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte
(Photo by DANIEL SLIM/AFP via Getty Images)
Boeing expects demand for commercial airplanes over the next decade to be 11 percent lower than what it was forecasting just a little over a year ago — a direct result of the economic shock from the coronavirus pandemic.
- Yes, but: Long-term growth rates should return after 2030, the company said Tuesday.
Why it matters: The pandemic upended what had been a long, steady ascent for the global aviation industry, with U.S. domestic passenger traffic down 70 percent and by as much as 90 percent internationally.
By the numbers: Boeing's annual forecast, published since 1961, is considered one of the most accurate forecasts in the aviation industry.
- The company estimates the total market for planes, products and services will be $8.5 trillion over the next decade, down from the $8.7 trillion forecast a year ago.
- It projects demand for 18,350 commercial airplanes in the next decade — 11% lower than the comparable 2019 forecast — worth about $2.9 trillion. Many of them will be replacements for existing planes.
- Demand for defense and space aircraft remains strong, a market worth $2.6 trillion, with 40 percent outside the U.S.
Longer term, the trends look more stable, Boeing said:
- Over the next 20 years, passenger traffic growth is projected to increase by an average of 4% per year.
- The global commercial fleet is expected to reach 48,400 by 2039, up from 25,900 airplanes today.
- Asia-based airlines will continue to expand their share of the world’s fleet, to nearly 40%, from about 30% today.
There's also some good news on the jobs front. Despite massive furloughs during the pandemic, demand for pilots and technicians remains strong.
- Boeing estimates the industry will need 2.4 million aviation personnel worldwide between now and 2039.
The bottom line, says Boeing's chief strategy officer, Marc Allen:
- “While this year has been unprecedented in terms of its disruption to our industry, we believe that aerospace and defense will overcome these near-term challenges, return to stability and emerge with strength."