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Jacob Ford / Odessa American via AP

The Permian Basin still matters:

Simon Lack of SL Advisors points out that even as Persian-Gulf OPEC states tried to chase American shale producers from the market following the oil-price crash of 2014, exploitation of the Permian Basin in West Texas remained a profitable, and the location is home to nearly half of the active rigs in America today.

The resilience of the Permian Basin speaks to the future economic power of Texas and its continued importance to the American energy, especially as rig counts in North Dakota and elsewhere have collapsed.

The Fed's public relations problem:

For years now, the Federal Reserve has seen no conflict between its goals of keeping inflation low and employment high. But as inflation rates rises above its 2% annual inflation target, Janet Yellen and company will have to start raising interest rates more quickly.

Why it matters: Donald Trump's inauguration address suggested that despite a low unemployment rate, the American public isn't satisfied. But as Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics writes in a research note, the Fed pays closer attention econometrics than it does public opinion.

Shepherdson argues that the Fed can't force companies to focus on hiring folks who have left the workforce since 2008, which means that we could see much higher inflation before we see the labor market heal to the Trump White House's standards.

What we're watching:

McDonald's reports earnings Monday morning, and the results could provide a window into the health of the American economy.

Analysts don't expect the firm to maintain the growth that was spurred by the introduction of all day breakfast last year, and that slowdown could be exacerbated by the rising cost of labor.

Why it matters: Fast food companies like McDonald's will be the first to feel the sting of higher wage inflation, and how the firms react to a shorter supply of workers—whether it's through higher prices, investing in training, or investing in automation—will foreshadow the reaction of the rest of the economy.

Go deeper

Updated 30 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Inauguration Day dashboard

Screenshot: Fox News

President Trump has delivered a farewell speech and departed Washington for the last time on Air Force One, kicking off the day that will culminate with President-elect Joe Biden taking office.

What's next: The inaugural celebration for young Americans is being livestreamed, starting at 10am.

Updated 46 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Trump departs on final Air Force One flight

President Trump and his family took off on Air Force One at 9 a.m. on Wednesday morning for the final time en route to Florida.

The big picture: Trump's final hours as president were punctuated by his decisions to snub his successor's inauguration and grant pardons to many of his allies who have been swept up in corruption scandals.

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
2 hours ago - Economy & Business

Janet Yellen said all the right things to reassure the markets

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Treasury Secretary nominee and former Fed chair Janet Yellen's confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday showed markets just what they can expect from the administration of President-elect Joe Biden: more of what they got under President Trump — at least for now.

What it means: Investors and big companies reaped the benefits of ultralow U.S. interest rates and low taxes for most of Trump's term as well as significant increases in government spending, even before the coronavirus pandemic.