Andrew Harnik / AP

Janet Yellen will speak this afternoon at 1 PM, sharing her economic outlook at the Executives Club of Chicago. Traders will parse her words carefully, looking for any clues to the timing of the next hike. They're now placing a 75.3% chance of a rate hike in March, up from 66.4% late Wednesday. After Vice Chair William Dudley said earlier this week, "the case for tightening monetary policy has become a lot more compelling." Chair Yellen is expected to reinforce the idea that higher interest rates are on the way.

Mexico's trade war strategy: Alejandro Silva & Alejandro Urbina, emerging market investors at Silva Capital Management, argue in Bloomberg View that Mexico has plenty of leverage in a trade war with the U.S. "Mexico should target products coming from states that were critical to Trump's victory in the Electoral College," they write, naming states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina as places where hundreds of thousands of jobs rely on exports to Mexico. In Ohio, for instance, they write that 178,000 in the jobs in transportation equipment manufacturing are supported with exports to Mexico.

Caterpillar's facilities raided by feds: Three manufacturing facilities in Illinois were raided by federal law enforcement officials, the company said Thursday afternoon, sending the stock down 4.28%. The company added that it thinks the investigation is related to an IRS probe of a Swiss subsidiary.

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Trump commutes Roger Stone's sentence

Roger Stone arriving at his sentencing hearing on Feb. 20. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

President Trump on Friday evening commuted the sentence of his longtime associate Roger Stone, according to two senior administration officials. Stone in February was sentenced to 40 months in prison for crimes including obstruction, witness tampering and making false statements to Congress.

Why it matters: The controversial move brings an abrupt end to the possibility of Stone spending time behind bars. He had been scheduled to report to prison on July 14.

Updated 7 hours ago - Health

Which states have set single-day coronavirus records this week

Data: COVID Tracking Project and state health department data compiled by Axios; Map: Danielle Alberti and Naema Ahmed/Axios

13 states this week surpassed records set just last week for their highest number of coronavirus infections in a single day, according to the COVID Tracking Project and state health department data. 16 states in total reported new highs.

The big picture: The United States' alarming rise in coronavirus cases isn't just due to increased testing — particularly where the number of cases has grown fastest over the last month, Axios' Andrew Witherspoon and Caitlin Owens report.

Updated 8 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 6:30 p.m. ET: 12,389,660 — Total deaths: 557,279 — Total recoveries — 6,830,596Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 6:30 p.m. ET: 3,169,611 — Total deaths: 133,885 — Total recoveries: 983,185 — Total tested: 38,856,341Map.
  3. Public health: The reality of the coronavirus bites.
  4. Trade: Trump says he's no longer considering phase-two trade deal with China because the pandemic damaged the two countries' relationship.
  5. 🎧 Podcast: Rural America has its own coronavirus problem.