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Andrew Harnik / AP

Janet Yellen will speak this afternoon at 1 PM, sharing her economic outlook at the Executives Club of Chicago. Traders will parse her words carefully, looking for any clues to the timing of the next hike. They're now placing a 75.3% chance of a rate hike in March, up from 66.4% late Wednesday. After Vice Chair William Dudley said earlier this week, "the case for tightening monetary policy has become a lot more compelling." Chair Yellen is expected to reinforce the idea that higher interest rates are on the way.

Mexico's trade war strategy: Alejandro Silva & Alejandro Urbina, emerging market investors at Silva Capital Management, argue in Bloomberg View that Mexico has plenty of leverage in a trade war with the U.S. "Mexico should target products coming from states that were critical to Trump's victory in the Electoral College," they write, naming states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina as places where hundreds of thousands of jobs rely on exports to Mexico. In Ohio, for instance, they write that 178,000 in the jobs in transportation equipment manufacturing are supported with exports to Mexico.

Caterpillar's facilities raided by feds: Three manufacturing facilities in Illinois were raided by federal law enforcement officials, the company said Thursday afternoon, sending the stock down 4.28%. The company added that it thinks the investigation is related to an IRS probe of a Swiss subsidiary.

Go deeper

House passes $1.9 trillion COVID relief package

Photo: Screenshot via C-SPAN

The House approved President Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID relief package on a 219-212 vote early Saturday morning, sending it to the Senate for a possible rewrite before it gets to Biden's desk.

The big picture: The vote was a critical first step for the package, which includes $1,400 cash payments for many Americans, a national vaccination program, ramped-up COVID testing and contact tracing, state and local funding and money to help schools reopen.

8 hours ago - Health

Biden says it's "not the time to relax" after touring vaccination site

President Biden speaking after visiting a FEMA Covid-19 vaccination facility in Houston on Feb. 26. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

President Biden said Friday that "it's not the time to relax" coronavirus mitigation efforts and warned that the number of cases and hospitalizations could rise again as new variants of the virus emerge.

Why it matters: Biden, who made the remarks after touring a vaccination site in Houston, echoed CDC director Rochelle Walensky, who said earlier on Friday that while the U.S. has seen a recent drop in cases and hospitalizations, "these declines follow the highest peak we have experienced in the pandemic."

Updated 8 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

  1. Health: Most COVID-19 survivors can weather risk of reinfection, study says — "Twindemic" averted as flu reports plummet amid coronavirus crisis
  2. Vaccine: FDA advisory panel endorses J&J COVID vaccine for emergency use — About 20% of U.S. adults have received first vaccine dose, White House says — New data reignites the debate over coronavirus vaccine strategy.
  3. Economy: What's really going on with the labor market.
  4. Local: All adult Minnesotans will likely be eligible for COVID-19 vaccine by summer — Another wealthy Florida community receives special access to COVID-19 vaccine.
  5. Sports: Poll weighs impact of athlete vaccination.