Andrew Harnik / AP

Janet Yellen will speak this afternoon at 1 PM, sharing her economic outlook at the Executives Club of Chicago. Traders will parse her words carefully, looking for any clues to the timing of the next hike. They're now placing a 75.3% chance of a rate hike in March, up from 66.4% late Wednesday. After Vice Chair William Dudley said earlier this week, "the case for tightening monetary policy has become a lot more compelling." Chair Yellen is expected to reinforce the idea that higher interest rates are on the way.

Mexico's trade war strategy: Alejandro Silva & Alejandro Urbina, emerging market investors at Silva Capital Management, argue in Bloomberg View that Mexico has plenty of leverage in a trade war with the U.S. "Mexico should target products coming from states that were critical to Trump's victory in the Electoral College," they write, naming states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina as places where hundreds of thousands of jobs rely on exports to Mexico. In Ohio, for instance, they write that 178,000 in the jobs in transportation equipment manufacturing are supported with exports to Mexico.

Caterpillar's facilities raided by feds: Three manufacturing facilities in Illinois were raided by federal law enforcement officials, the company said Thursday afternoon, sending the stock down 4.28%. The company added that it thinks the investigation is related to an IRS probe of a Swiss subsidiary.

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Updated 53 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Politics: Americans feel Trump's sickness makes him harder to trustFlorida breaks record for in-person early voting.
  2. Health: The next wave is gaining steam.
  3. Education: Schools haven't become hotspots.
  4. World: Ireland moving back into lockdown — Argentina becomes 5th country to report 1 million infections.

Meadows confirms Trump's tweets "declassifying" Russia documents were false

Photo: Tom Williams-Pool/Getty Images

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows confirmed in court on Tuesday that President Trump's tweets authorizing the disclosure of documents related to the Russia investigation and Hillary Clinton's emails "were not self-executing declassification orders," after a federal judge demanded that Trump be asked about his intentions.

Why it matters: BuzzFeed News reporter Jason Leopold cited the tweets in an emergency motion seeking to gain access to special counsel Robert Mueller's unredacted report as part of a Freedom of Information Act request. This is the first time Trump himself has indicated, according to Meadows, that his tweets are not official directives.

2 hours ago - World

China embraces hostage diplomacy

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The Chinese government is threatening to detain foreign citizens unless their home governments do what Beijing demands. In some cases, China has already made good on those threats.

The big picture: This marks a potential evolution of China's "wolf warrior diplomacy" to outright rogue state behavior, putting it in the company of countries like North Korea and Iran, which have also engaged in hostage diplomacy.