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Data: PPIC Statewide Survey; Note: 535 surveyed by household income, 573 of all likely voters. ±5.7 percentage point margin of error; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

With Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg out of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, today's primaries will be a major test for Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Why it matters: For the markets, Sanders' economic policy proposals and anti-Wall Street rhetoric are seen as a major potential negative for the stock market and a good showing could put him one step closer to the Democratic party nomination and the presidency.

What's happening: Sanders has a commanding lead in California, which has by far the most delegates of any state voting today.

  • A recent survey from Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) shows Sanders with a wide lead.
  • The latest CBS News Battleground Tracker/YouGov poll also shows Sanders with a significant advantage, at 31%, with Biden at 19%, Elizabeth Warren at 18% and Mike Bloomberg at 12%.
  • Polls also show Sanders with a sizeable lead in Texas, which holds the second highest number of delegates.

Be smart: Only candidates who receive 15% of the vote will get a share of the state's delegates.

  • The PPIC study also asked respondents who their second choice would be and Warren led with 22%, followed by Sanders with 19%.
  • Biden, who received endorsements from Klobuchar and Buttigieg Monday night, got 13% of second place votes, while Bloomberg received just 9%.

Go deeper: Inside the Bernie economy

Go deeper

Democrats' mail voting pivot

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Democrats spent the early months of the coronavirus pandemic urging their base to vote absentee. But as threats of U.S. Postal Service delays, Team Trump litigation and higher ballot rejection rates become clearer, many are pivoting to promote more in-person voting as well.

Why it matters: Democrats are exponentially more likely to vote by mail than Republicans this year — and if enough mail-in ballots are lost, rejected on a technicality or undercounted, it could change the outcome of the presidential election or other key races.

New interactive tool shows Biden's mail voting danger

Data: SurveyMonkey; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Voters who disapprove of President Trump most strongly are by far the most likely to vote by mail in the presidential election, according to an Axios analysis of exclusive data from SurveyMonkey and Tableau.

Why it matters: The new data shows just how strongly the mail-in vote is likely to favor Joe Biden — with potentially enormous implications in the swing states due to the greater risk of rejection with mail ballots.

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
53 mins ago - Health

Reopening the ACA debate is politically risky for GOP

Data: Kaiser Family Foundation, The Cook Political Report; Notes: Those losing insurance includes 2020 ACA marketplace enrollment and 2019 Medicaid expansion enrollment among newly-eligible enrollees. Close races are those defined as "Toss up" or "Lean R/D"; Table: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

The sudden uncertainty surrounding the future of the Affordable Care Act could be an enormous political liability for Republicans in key states come November.

Between the lines: Millions of people in crucial presidential and Senate battlegrounds would lose their health care coverage if the Supreme Court strikes down the law, as the Trump administration is urging it to.

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