National

Kremlin-spawned influence campaigns that falsely accuse Ukraine of interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election have successfully furthered Russia's yearslong geopolitical battle against its largest European neighbor.

Why it matters: In addition to deflecting blame for its own well-documented meddling in American politics, the Kremlin has an interest in making support for Ukraine a more polarizing, partisan issue in the U.S. American military assistance is critical to Ukraine's efforts to defend itself against Russian aggression and territorial incursion.

Driving the news: U.S. intelligence officials briefed senators in recent weeks on the Russian campaign to frame Ukraine for interfering in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The briefing also covered the evolution of the Kremlin's tactics, including a much improved ability to cover its tracks.

On Thursday, former top National Security Council official Fiona Hill testified that the Ukraine conspiracy theory is "a fictional narrative that has been perpetrated and propagated by the Russian security services themselves."

Context: Moscow has a history of using state media, online troll farms and a network of sympathetic agitators to promote content designed to deflect culpability for the Kremlin’s misdeeds.

After Russian military intelligence poisoned former British-Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in the U.K. in 2018, Russian state-controlled news agencies promoted conspiracy theories about alternate culprits, including the U.S., the British government, a drone and even Yulia Skripal’s future mother-in-law.

Russia deployed similar tactics after the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine in 2014 by Russian-affiliated rebels. Its Ministry of Defense released doctored satellite images in an effort to pin blame on Ukraine.

What to watch: Ahead of the 2020 U.S. elections, much attention has been paid to the potential for social media operations of the sort Russia's infamous troll farm, the Internet Research Agency, carried out in 2016. But such operations take many forms — often relying, as in this case, on the use of proxies to spread a narrative across the information ecosystem.

The bottom line: Russia's Ukraine conspiracy theories offer a reminder that disinformation spreads through various channels, both online and offline. While elections are a prominent flashpoint, these interference campaigns are ongoing and put a range of political events in their crosshairs.

Jessica Brandt is a fellow at the German Marshall Fund and the head of policy and research for its Alliance for Securing Democracy.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/21/us/politics/fiona-hill-opening-statement-ukraine.html

Russian blame game sows U.S. discord to weaken Ukraine

The Kremlin has a long history of using misinformation to obscure its misdeeds.

The Moscow Kremlin. Photo: Sergei Karpukhin/TASS via Getty Images

World

Russia interference

Expert Voices

Russia

Kremlin-spawned influence campaigns that falsely accuse Ukraine of interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election have successfully furthered Russia&#x27;s yearslong geopolitical battle against its largest European neighbor.Why it matters: In addition to deflecting blame for its own <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="well" data-vars-click-url="https://www.justice.gov/storage/report.pdf" data-vars-content-id="0399bad2-7c8f-4ef2-989c-846a15017af3" data-vars-headline="Russian blame game sows U.S. discord to weaken Ukraine" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.justice.gov/storage/report.pdf" target="_blank">well</a>-<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="documented" data-vars-click-url="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Report_Volume1.pdf" data-vars-content-id="0399bad2-7c8f-4ef2-989c-846a15017af3" data-vars-headline="Russian blame game sows U.S. discord to weaken Ukraine" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Report_Volume1.pdf" target="_blank">documented</a> <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="meddling" data-vars-click-url="https://comprop.oii.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/93/2018/12/IRA-Report.pdf" data-vars-content-id="0399bad2-7c8f-4ef2-989c-846a15017af3" data-vars-headline="Russian blame game sows U.S. discord to weaken Ukraine" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://comprop.oii.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/93/2018/12/IRA-Report.pdf" target="_blank">meddling</a> in American politics, the Kremlin has an interest in making <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="support for Ukraine" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/21/us/politics/fiona-hill-opening-statement-ukraine.html" data-vars-content-id="0399bad2-7c8f-4ef2-989c-846a15017af3" data-vars-headline="Russian blame game sows U.S. discord to weaken Ukraine" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/21/us/politics/fiona-hill-opening-statement-ukraine.html" target="_blank">support for Ukraine</a> a more polarizing, partisan issue in the U.S. American military assistance is critical to Ukraine&#x27;s efforts to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="defend itself" data-vars-click-url="https://time.com/5732777/trumps-actions-ukraine-dangerous/" data-vars-content-id="0399bad2-7c8f-4ef2-989c-846a15017af3" data-vars-headline="Russian blame game sows U.S. discord to weaken Ukraine" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://time.com/5732777/trumps-actions-ukraine-dangerous/" target="_blank">defend itself</a> against Russian aggression and territorial incursion.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

The U.K. announced last Monday a sweeping plan to prevent the spread of harmful online content — part of a global trend of new content regulations targeting material designed to polarize and mislead.

The big picture: The British proposal, which comes on the heels of new measures in Australia and Singapore, would create a regulator empowered to punish social media platforms that fail to quickly remove harmful material, including disinformation. But these approaches — which focus on content rather than problematic behavior — have concerning implications for free expression.

Singapore introduced draft legislation two weeks ago that would allow the government to force corrections into online content that it deems false. Given its history of silencing criticism, rights groups are justifiably concerned.

Also two weeks ago, Australia passed a law that threatens fines and even jail time for social media companies and their executives that fail to quickly remove violent posts. That too is fraught, since it incentivizes companies to take a broad approach that could imperil legitimate speech.

Britain's proposal will soon enter a 3-month comment period, during which revisions are likely.

Between the lines: If platforms work to root out accounts that engage in deceptive behavior, they can limit the spread of weaponized misinformation without policing content.

Disinformation operations deploy coordinated networks of fake personas and automated accounts that manipulate algorithms and flood the information space — tactics that have little to do with content.

Focusing on tools and tactics enables social media companies to identify patterns of behavior that can prevent disinformation operations in the future.

The bottom line: Policing online content could play into the hands of the very authoritarian regimes that deploy disinformation campaigns, since they themselves want to restrict expression.

How global efforts to limit disinformation could infringe speech

Targeting behavior rather than content carries fewer risks.

man in a suit pointing at a computer whose monitor is glowing red

Digital content

Technology

The U.K. announced last Monday a sweeping <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="plan" data-vars-click-url="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/793360/Online_Harms_White_Paper.pdf" data-vars-content-id="10cba500-2299-4077-8fc2-4c13e4d4ff86" data-vars-headline="How global efforts to limit disinformation could infringe speech" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/793360/Online_Harms_White_Paper.pdf" target="_blank">plan</a> to prevent the spread of harmful online content — part of a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="global trend" data-vars-click-url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrPzZaKF_lo#t=23m33s" data-vars-content-id="10cba500-2299-4077-8fc2-4c13e4d4ff86" data-vars-headline="How global efforts to limit disinformation could infringe speech" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrPzZaKF_lo#t=23m33s" target="_blank">global trend</a> of new content regulations targeting material designed to polarize and mislead.The big picture: The British proposal, which comes on the heels of new measures in Australia and Singapore, would create a regulator empowered to punish social media platforms that fail to quickly remove harmful material, including disinformation. But these approaches — which focus on content rather than problematic behavior — have concerning implications for free expression.

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

In the past week, Google, Twitter and Facebook each deactivated networks of accounts found to be waging Beijing-backed global influence campaigns — a sign that China is taking pages out of Russia's propaganda playbook.

Why it matters: These campaigns, which aim to discredit the massive protests underway in Hong Kong, show China not only censoring information domestically but increasingly promoting disinformation abroad.

Driving the news: For the first time, Western social media platforms have attributed information manipulation campaigns to China.

Google suspended 210 YouTube channels on Thursday for behaving "in a coordinated manner."

That news followed announcements on Monday that Twitter suspended 936 accounts originating in mainland China and Facebook removed 5 accounts, 7 pages and 3 groups for similar violations of the sites' policies.

Background: Beijing has long sought to control the flow of information beyond its borders, including by censoring critical content on the Chinese app WeChat and pressuring Western platforms to do the same.

Closer to home, Chinese “content farms” have spread disinformation on social media in Taiwan, seeding pro-Beijing narratives.

Between the lines: While most of the Twitter accounts operated in Mandarin, others engaged in Arabic, Japanese, Russian and Spanish — suggesting that Beijing sought to shape perceptions of the protests globally.

Based on data released by Twitter , 3 of the 5 most-followed accounts it suspended were promoting material in English.

Some of the English-language Twitter accounts has been created and previously controlled by Western businesses and students, an indication that they may have been compromised or sold.

As part of this multi-pronged effort, Chinese state media amplified disinformation about the protests with paid advertisements, prompting Twitter to revoke ad purchase privileges from state-run media.

What to watch: At least one account Twitter identified, @LibertyLionNews, focused its messaging on U.S. politics, not the Hong Kong protests. If Twitter is correct in tracing it to China, that signals a greater shift in Chinese tactics, toward promoting divisive narratives within the U.S.

Social media platforms reveal China's disinformation reaching the West

China has taken a page out of Russia's playbook.

protestors outside at night linking arms together and holding up glowing cell phones

Pro-democract protesters in Hong Kong. Photo: Chris McGrath/Getty Images

Chinese influence

Media

China

In the past week, Google, Twitter and Facebook each deactivated networks of accounts found to be waging Beijing-backed global influence campaigns — a sign that China is taking pages out of Russia&#x27;s propaganda playbook.Why it matters: These campaigns, which aim to discredit the massive protests underway in Hong Kong, show China not only censoring information domestically but increasingly promoting disinformation abroad.

Special counsel Robert Mueller concurs with the Intelligence Community's assessment that the Russian government carried out a sophisticated, multi-pronged campaign to interfere in the 2016 election, per Attorney General William Barr’s letter summarizing the investigation’s findings.

Why it matters: Absent a bipartisan effort to combat this threat, Russian meddling may continue to disrupt American democracy.

Background: Russia's meddling didn’t stop on election day in 2016. The Kremlin seeded disinformation to influence the 2018 midterm elections and may have sought to compromise electoral infrastructure.

Russia's campaigns spread propaganda and disseminate private information with the aim of sowing discord among Americans.

What's new: A social media campaign is already underway to spread falsehoods about 2020 presidential candidates, and it appears foreign state actors are behind at least some of that activity. Elements of the campaign resemble the information operations Russia has deployed to misinform and polarize voters.

What to watch: Per Barr's letter, more information on the results of Mueller’s investigation should be publicly released. That could help social media companies, journalists and national security professionals draw lessons for combating future interference.

Mueller’s investigation is over. Russia’s election meddling isn’t.

Falsehoods about 2020 candidates are already spreading on social media.

Special counsel Robert Mueller. Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Politics

Special counsel Robert Mueller concurs with the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Intelligence Community" data-vars-click-url="https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf" data-vars-content-id="3d7894ee-2ca8-4cc2-bfd7-75e3b4899281" data-vars-headline="Mueller’s investigation is over. Russia’s election meddling isn’t." data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf" target="_blank">Intelligence Community</a>&#x27;s assessment that the Russian government carried out a sophisticated, multi-pronged campaign to interfere in the 2016 election, per Attorney General William Barr’s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="letter summarizing the investigation’s findings" data-vars-click-url="https://judiciary.house.gov/sites/democrats.judiciary.house.gov/files/documents/AG%20March%2024%202019%20Letter%20to%20House%20and%20Senate%20Judiciary%20Committees.pdf" data-vars-content-id="3d7894ee-2ca8-4cc2-bfd7-75e3b4899281" data-vars-headline="Mueller’s investigation is over. Russia’s election meddling isn’t." data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://judiciary.house.gov/sites/democrats.judiciary.house.gov/files/documents/AG%20March%2024%202019%20Letter%20to%20House%20and%20Senate%20Judiciary%20Committees.pdf" target="_blank">letter summarizing the investigation’s findings</a>.Why it matters: Absent a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="bipartisan effort" data-vars-click-url="http://www.gmfus.org/publications/asd-policy-blueprint-countering-authoritarian-interference-democracies" data-vars-content-id="3d7894ee-2ca8-4cc2-bfd7-75e3b4899281" data-vars-headline="Mueller’s investigation is over. Russia’s election meddling isn’t." data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="http://www.gmfus.org/publications/asd-policy-blueprint-countering-authoritarian-interference-democracies" target="_blank">bipartisan effort</a> to combat this threat, Russian meddling may continue to disrupt American democracy.

The implication of Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini in a campaign finance deal involving Russian funds highlights the expanding reach of Russian interference in nationalist, populist political movements across Europe.

Why it matters: Russia's foreign meddling aims to further its goals of weakening liberal democracies in the West and expanding its share of global influence. But the exposure of some of its efforts has come back to haunt the intended beneficiaries.

Details: Leaked audio revealed a meeting between associates of Salvini and Russians with ties to senior officials in Moscow.

In the October 2018 recording, Gianluca Savoini and two unidentified Italians discuss a scheme to funnel $65 million worth of oil profits to Salvini’s hard-right La Lega party ahead of Europe’s parliamentary elections in May.

It is uncertain whether the transaction took place; if it did, it would have been illegal under Italian law.

Context: This is just one front of a broad Russian campaign that often exploits legal loopholes.

In France, the Russian government sought to bolster the fortunes of far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen with €9.4 million ($10.5 million) in loans from a now-defunct bank tied to Putin’s inner circle, skirting the ban on foreign election contributions by structuring its donation as a loan.

In the U.K., the then-Russian ambassador in London and other officials reportedly offered investment opportunities to the largest funder of the Leave.EU campaign.

Russia has a history of using firms in the notoriously opaque energy industry to wield influence through political financing in Bosnia, the Czech Republic, Ukraine and other countries.

Flashback: Earlier this year, Austrian Vice-Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache was forced to resign after it was exposed that he offered preferential contracts to individuals posing as Russian businessmen in exchange for kickbacks to his Freedom Party. The episode prompted the collapse of Austria’s coalition government.

What to watch: Two of Italy's former prime ministers have called for an investigation, and the public's reaction could determine the political future of one of Europe’s ascendant populists. On Tuesday, Salvini bowed to pressure and agreed to answer questions at a still-unscheduled hearing in Parliament.

Italy's Salvini embroiled in Russian scheme to aid League party

Similar efforts have been uncovered in France, the U.K. and much of Eastern Europe.

Italian Deputy Minister Matteo Salvini. Photo: Stefano Montesi - Corbis/Getty Images

The implication of Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini in a campaign finance deal involving Russian funds highlights the expanding <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="reach of Russian interference" data-vars-click-url="https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/russias-promotion-of-illiberal-populism-tools-tactics-networks/" data-vars-content-id="b51bc59d-7bdd-4d8c-b7e5-8cd281944b44" data-vars-headline="Italy&#x27;s Salvini embroiled in Russian scheme to aid League party" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/russias-promotion-of-illiberal-populism-tools-tactics-networks/" target="_blank">reach of Russian interference</a> in nationalist, populist political movements across Europe.Why it matters: Russia&#x27;s foreign meddling aims to further its goals of weakening liberal democracies in the West and expanding its share of global influence. But the exposure of some of its efforts has come back to haunt the intended beneficiaries.

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Russian blame game sows U.S. discord to weaken Ukraine

Social media platforms reveal China's disinformation reaching the West

Italy's Salvini embroiled in Russian scheme to aid League party

How global efforts to limit disinformation could infringe speech

Mueller’s investigation is over. Russia’s election meddling isn’t.