National

Data: National Association of Realtors; Chart: Will Chase/Axios

The housing boom marches on as Americans rush to enter into contracts on new homes, according to fresh data out Monday from the National Association of Realtors.

The big picture: Contract signings increased 7.5% in October from September, representing a month-over-month increase in all regions, according to NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index.

Yes, but: Signings were 1.4% lower versus a year ago.

What they’re saying: "Motivated by fast-rising rents and the anticipated increase in mortgage rates, consumers that are on strong financial footing are signing contracts to purchase a home sooner rather than later," Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said in a statement.  

"The notable gain in October assures that total existing-home sales in 2021 will exceed 6 million, which will shape up to be the best performance in 15 years."

What we're watching: Yun expects home prices to rise more slowly and overall demand to cool off a bit as mortgage rates increase. 

Home sales poised to hit 15-year high

Contract signings increased 7.5% in October from September.

Housing

An 'Available' and 'Sold' signs outside of new homes in Nampa, Idaho, in October.

The housing boom marches on as Americans rush to enter into contracts on new homes, according to fresh data out Monday from the National Association of Realtors.The big picture: Contract signings increased 7.5% in October from September, representing a month-over-month increase in all regions, according to NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index.

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Data: New York Fed SCE Credit Access Survey; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios

Americans want access to more credit than they have since the pandemic began. Demand for borrowing is increasing, albeit alongside consumer jitters about being able to shoulder unexpected bills.

What’s happening: Requests for credit card applications and credit limit increases are leading the demand rebound, according to the latest credit access survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 

Credit card application rates reached 26.5% in October 2021, up 10.8 percentage points from the low point hit last October.

Mortgage application rates have also exceeded 2019 and 2020 levels, though the appetite for refinancing has subsided a bit in the second half of this year. 

Yes, but: Lenders may not generate more profit from the trend because while people might borrow more they are also paying off balances at a faster rate, the Wall Street Journal reported. 

What we're watching: Households say that with the exception of mortgage refis they are likely to apply for even more credit over the next 12 months (think mortgages, credit cards, card limit increases and auto loans), the survey found. 

The strengthening appetite coincides with respondents, on average, having a lower expectation for being able to cover a $2,000 emergency expense — while at the same time expecting to have to do so.

A credit feast

Requests for credit card applications and credit limit increases are leading the demand rebound.

Credit

Americans want access to more credit than they have since the pandemic began. Demand for borrowing is increasing, albeit alongside consumer jitters about being able to shoulder unexpected bills.What’s happening: Requests for credit card applications and credit limit increases are leading the demand rebound, according to the latest credit access survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The latest measure of inflation is set for release Friday, as market watchers continue to process last week’s confusing jobs report and try to game out the economic impact of the latest coronavirus variant.

Why it matters: Americans, politicians, and regulators are laser-focused on price gains picking up steam and impacting the overall economic recovery.

By the numbers: Consensus estimates among economists call for the core Consumer Price Index, which measures the price of goods and services excluding food and energy, to have risen by 0.4% in November from October. 

That compares to the 0.6% hike seen in October, and September’s 0.2% uptick. 

What they’re saying: A group of top economists have ramped up their inflation expectations in recent months, and downgraded their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in 2021, according to a new NABE Outlook survey released Monday. 

"Nearly three-fourths of respondents — 71% — anticipate that the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, the change in the core PCE price index, will not cool down to or below the Fed’s target of 2% year-over-year until the second half of 2023 or later," said NABE vice president Julia Coronado, in a statement. 

The bottom line: The Fed has already reversed course on its stance that higher prices would be temporary and that admission may change the central bank's view on its policies. 

What to expect from Friday's Consumer Price Index report

Consensus estimates among economists call for the core CPI to have risen by 0.4% in November from October.

Illustration of a large dollar bill sign balloon being held by a man who is floating slightly off the ground. 

Inflation

The latest measure of inflation is set for release Friday, as market watchers continue to process last week’s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="confusing jobs report" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/us-jobs-number-november-unemployment-4a70677a-5ce2-48fd-946f-1a70570402da.html?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosprorata&amp;stream=top" data-vars-content-id="876a6c05-083a-4604-95f4-58d5ba04aebb" data-vars-headline="What to expect from Friday&#x27;s Consumer Price Index report" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/us-jobs-number-november-unemployment-4a70677a-5ce2-48fd-946f-1a70570402da.html?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosprorata&amp;stream=top" target="_self">confusing jobs report</a> and try to game out the economic impact of the latest coronavirus variant.Why it matters: Americans, politicians, and regulators are laser-focused on price gains picking up steam and impacting the overall economic recovery.

Data: Morning Consult/Axios Inequality Index; Chart: Axios Visuals 

Inequality widened in September, driven by income losses and fears among the most financially vulnerable, according to the latest Morning Consult/Axios Inequality Index released today.

Why it matters: As COVID continues to spread, expanded pandemic-era unemployment benefits expired this month, removing a financial safety net for 7.5 million Americans. 

Worsening inequality underscores the role the enhancements played for those at the low end of the income spectrum, Morning Consult chief economist John Leer tells Axios.

“What’s particularly different right now — if you connect the economic reality with the policy situation — is that those folks who experienced pay and income losses don’t have unemployment insurance benefits to help support them and support their finances," Leer says.

How the index works: It compares sentiment between income groups based on consumer confidence, employment outcomes, employment expectations and financial vulnerability. The larger the gaps, the higher the inequality level. 

The overall index widened to 7.23% from 6.52% in August. 

What they found: The Delta variant's impact on employment is worsening, especially in customer-facing service sectors where consumer confidence also factors in.  

For example, the share of food and beverage workers reporting income losses shot up to 26.5%, from 19.1% in the span of four weeks. These are typically lower-paying jobs so the gap in income losses between someone making less than $50,000 and a person making more than $100,000 increased to 4.5%.

Paying bills is getting harder for some. The number of people who say they can't afford a month of basic expenses rose to 31.1% from 29% for those earning less than $50,000 — and fell to 5.3% from 9.8% for those earning above $100,000.

Go deeper: Retail sales increase despite low expectations from Delta

Fears grow for the financially vulnerable, index shows

The Delta variant's impact on employment is worsening, especially in customer-facing service sectors.

Economic inequality

A chart showing pay/income loss inequality

Inequality widened in September, driven by income losses and fears among the most financially vulnerable, according to the latest <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Morning Consult/Axios Inequality Index" data-vars-click-url="https://morningconsult.com/inequality-index/" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://morningconsult.com/inequality-index/" target="_blank">Morning Consult/Axios Inequality Index</a> released today.Why it matters: As COVID continues to spread, expanded pandemic-era unemployment benefits <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="expired this month" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/06/business/economy/unemployment-benefits.html" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/06/business/economy/unemployment-benefits.html" target="_blank">expired this month</a>, removing a financial safety net for 7.5 million Americans.

As the world grapples with the pandemic's impact on globalization, Michael Bloomberg on Wednesday is unveiling the inaugural members of a new group to focus on solving its biggest problems, Axios is the first to report. 

Why it matters: COVID-19 spread globally — in an instant shutting borders, disrupting trade and eventually leaving millions dead or sick. What comes next as emerging economies prepare for recovery, will also impact the rest of the world.

What’s happening: Members of the first Bloomberg New Economy Catalysts cohort span six continents and are focused on technology and policy in emerging economies. 

The group will assemble virtually for a kick-off event on June 30 to discuss the future of climate, agriculture, bio-tech, e-commerce, space and digital money.  

They will also participate in this year’s in-person Bloomberg New Economy Forum set for November 16-19 in Singapore.

The forum, hosted by the former New York City mayor, Henry Kissinger and Hank Paulson, aims to draw roughly 400 business executives, government officials and academics to discuss climate, cities, finance, trade and public health.

Between the lines: Bloomberg's efforts take aim at turf previously dominated by the World Economic Forum's annual V.I.P. event for business and political leaders in Davos. It was cancelled this year after several attempts to set up shop in Singapore this summer. 

Of note: WEF has a Young Global Leaders program for people younger than 40 from different communities and industries.

What they’re saying: Catalyst will offer startups in places like Africa the opportunity to attract interest and investment, says 25-year-old member Shamim Nabuuma Kaliisa. 

“Startups in Africa strive so hard to get one investor ... which is not the case in Europe, in the U.S., in China, in Japan."

She is the founder of the Uganda-based Chil. The group of companies provide services like AI for cancer screenings and drones for transporting cancer specimens from rural areas.

The big picture: The pandemic didn't send globalization back to the dark ages of the financial crisis as initially feared, noted a Harvard Business Review report in March. 

Aside from the unprecedented collapse in the movement of people to and from, trade has rebounded, along with flows of capital and digital information.

The bottom line: “We certainly are in favor of an open global economy," Andy Browne, the editorial director of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, tells Axios. 

"What we’ve seen this year is this really retrograde tendency towards closing borders, towards vaccine nationalism, migrant workers going home and in a sense we feel that the counterforce to that is technology,” Browne says.

Bloomberg's plan to take on Davos and the world's greatest challenges

Bloomberg is unveiling the inaugural members of a new group to focus on solving the world's biggest problems.

Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg on February 28, 2020 in Blountville, Tennessee. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Sections

Axios Local

Axios gets you smarter, faster with news & information that matters.

About

Subscribe

Aja Whitaker-Moore

Stories

What to expect from Friday's Consumer Price Index report

A credit feast

Home sales poised to hit 15-year high

Fears grow for the financially vulnerable, index shows

Bloomberg's plan to take on Davos and the world's greatest challenges