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In a speech on Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rolled out the Trump administration’s long-awaited Indo-Pacific economic strategy, outlining the Trump administration’s alternative to China’s Belt and Road initiative. 

The big picture: The Trump administration has made the region a centerpiece of its approach to Asia, speaking frequently about the importance of a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” Pompeo highlighted the importance of deeper U.S. engagement with this large and fast-growing economic area, but the proposed strategy falls short of the scale needed to provide credible alternatives to China’s efforts, which include increasingly prominent cases of “debt-trap” diplomacy. 

Pompeo announced a $113 million fund to support digital, energy, and infrastructure connectivity, countering concerns about the administration’s underappreciation of diplomacy and development in U.S. foreign policy. But set against the trillion-dollar scale of the Belt and Road initiative, this new fund will struggle to compete. 

Additionally, Pompeo did not explain how the U.S. would leverage its diplomatic ties across the Indo-Pacific to further its stated goals. He emphasized the importance of private-sector investment, but said nothing about support, or even diplomatic endorsement, from other interested countries.

Pompeo noted that further announcements on security assistance would come later this week — when he travels to Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia — and mentioned working with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum, and the Indian Ocean Rim Association. Washington will need to pay more attention to these institutions and their relationship with India in order to lend more diplomatic heft to this initiative across the enormous region.

The bottom line: The Trump administration’s attention to development finance and diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific region is significant, but it will need to be stepped up to provide attractive alternatives for countries wooed by the easy loans of the Belt and Road.

Alyssa Ayres is senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of “Our Time Has Come: How India Is Making Its Place in the World.”

U.S. economic strategy for Indo-Pacific doesn't stack up to China's

It will struggle to compete against the massive Belt and Road Initiative.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks during the Indo-Pacific Business Forum at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (USCC) July 30, 2018 in Washington, DC.

Secretary of State Pompeo speaks during the Indo-Pacific Business Forum at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on July 30, 2018, in Washington, DC. Photo: Alex Wong via Getty Images

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In a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="speech" data-vars-click-url="https://www.facebook.com/usdos/videos/10155626522111074/" data-vars-content-id="2f5233b6-8163-4e44-859e-8ee2d3adc703" data-vars-headline="U.S. economic strategy for Indo-Pacific doesn&#x27;t stack up to China&#x27;s" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.facebook.com/usdos/videos/10155626522111074/" target="_blank">speech</a> on Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rolled out the Trump administration’s long-awaited Indo-Pacific economic strategy, outlining the Trump administration’s alternative to China’s Belt and Road initiative. The big picture: The Trump administration has made the region <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="a centerpiece of its approach to Asia" data-vars-click-url="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf" data-vars-content-id="2f5233b6-8163-4e44-859e-8ee2d3adc703" data-vars-headline="U.S. economic strategy for Indo-Pacific doesn&#x27;t stack up to China&#x27;s" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf" target="_blank">a centerpiece of its approach to Asia</a>, speaking frequently about the importance of a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” Pompeo highlighted the importance of deeper U.S. engagement with this large and fast-growing economic area, but the proposed strategy falls short of the scale needed to provide credible alternatives to China’s efforts, which include increasingly prominent cases of “<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="debt-trap” diplomacy" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/china-debt-africa-djibouti-kenya-angola-belt-and-road-initiative-c65b82fa-48a6-4140-bb01-bc19580a16c9.html" data-vars-content-id="2f5233b6-8163-4e44-859e-8ee2d3adc703" data-vars-headline="U.S. economic strategy for Indo-Pacific doesn&#x27;t stack up to China&#x27;s" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/china-debt-africa-djibouti-kenya-angola-belt-and-road-initiative-c65b82fa-48a6-4140-bb01-bc19580a16c9.html" target="_self">debt-trap” diplomacy</a>.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Indians began casting votes for their lower house of parliament on Thursday, in an election that represents a referendum on Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Why it matters: The elections are taking place amid worries about unemployment, recent tensions with Pakistan and the future of secularism in India.

How it works: India's 900 million eligible voters will be able to cast their ballots in more than 1 million polling stations across 29 states and 7 Union Territories. To accommodate this scale and assure security at polling stations, voting will take place on 7 dates between April 11 and May 19, with the ballot count beginning May 23.

India’s complex political landscape — with 7 national, 56 state-level and more than 2000 other political parties — presents voters with diverse options at the ballot box.

Where it stands: Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party heads a single-party majority government. The Indian National Congress, the other major national party, has formed a “grand alliance” with some 20 parties in the hopes of dislodging the BJP and its allies and restoring India’s tradition of secular politics.

Modi campaigned 5 years ago on a platform of jobs, economic growth and good governance. While India has seen comparatively good economic growth, it has not created enough jobs for the bulging youth demographic, and unemployment has reached a 45-year high.

Rural voters, who make up more than 66% of the population and depend overwhelmingly on agriculture, have been hurt by a collapse in food prices and poor rainfall.

Yet Modi may have shored up support among voters focused on terrorism and national security with his decision to order airstrikes in response to a recent suicide bombing claimed by a Pakistan-based terrorist group. 

What to watch: Conventional wisdom sees Modi likely to return to power, though with fewer seats, requiring coalition support to form the next government. But Indian voters have delivered surprises before. With an election of this scale and complexity, nothing’s over until the last ballot is counted.

https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp-growth-annual

https://www.business-standard.com/article/reuters/india-s-unemployment-rate-hit-45-year-high-in-2017-18-report-119013100353_1.html

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS?locations=IN

http://www.fao.org/india/fao-in-india/india-at-a-glance/en/

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/10-reasons-why-farmers-are-in-distress/articleshow/67069814.cms

https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/nearly-50-per-cent-of-india-currently-facing-drought-iit-gn-scientists-119022800317_1.html

Modi’s vision of India is on the ballot in parliamentary elections

Unemployment, religious politics and tensions with Pakistan will be on voters' minds.

India's prime minister Narenda Modi with the president of his political party

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah holding up copies of the party manifesto in New Delhi. Photo: Arvind Yadav/Hindustan Times via Getty Images

India

Indians began casting votes for their lower house of parliament on Thursday, in an election that represents a referendum on Prime Minister Narendra Modi.Why it matters: The elections are taking place amid worries about unemployment, recent tensions with Pakistan and the future of secularism in India.

India has announced tariff hikes totaling $235 million on 29 U.S. goods — including agricultural products, steel and aluminum — in direct retaliation to U.S. tariffs.

The big picture: Despite decades of economic frictions, the strategic partnership between the world’s two largest democracies has continued to strengthen. Recently, however, President Trump’s trade policies have inflamed frictions with India, to the potential detriment of security cooperation across the Indo-Pacific region.

The U.S. and India have a long list of economic irritants, even at the best of times. For example, the Obama administration took India to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on solar panels and poultry, while India has a still-pending WTO dispute with the U.S. on H-1B visas. 

The Trump administration has added to the list. Trump's trade-deficit fixation put India in the crosshairs despite a relatively small $24-billion deficit, as did the March steel and aluminum tariffs, which were supposed to target China. Unlike the EU, Canada, Mexico and other countries, India didn’t receive an exemption at the time.

The Indian government fears further escalation, given talk of removing India from the Generalized System of Preferences program — which aids developing countries by eliminating duties on select products — and limiting high-skilled worker visas.

With the Trump administration’s national-security strategy’s emphasis on the Indo-Pacific, and India’s participation in the “Quad” Security Dialogue (U.S., Australia, India, Japan), closer cooperation with India appears to be a high priority. But India — now the world’s sixth largest economy, but nonetheless a developing one with its own domestic needs — will not be pushed around, and will interpret America’s latest measures as coercive rather than good-faith efforts to resolve longstanding issues. 

The bottom line: Managing problems while finding new areas for cooperation has improved U.S.–India ties. But a deteriorated economic relationship will inevitably color New Delhi’s interest in strategic cooperation, which should be the greater priority given pressing U.S. security interests across the Indo-Pacific. 

Alyssa Ayres is senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of “Our Time Has Come: How India is Making Its Place in the World.” 

India imposes retaliatory tariffs, escalating U.S. trade tensions

Trump's trade policies have inflamed frictions with India, even as he seeks cooperation.

President Trump speaks with Indian Prime Minister Modi during a bilateral meeting on the sideline of the 31st Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Manila on November 13, 2017. 

President Trump speaks with Indian Prime Minister Modi during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting in Manila on November 13, 2017. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images 

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India has announced <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="tariff hikes" data-vars-click-url="https://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/india-raises-import-duties-on-agri-steel-products-to-protest-us-tariff-hike/story-fung5wX88UshIfORNCwPBK.html" data-vars-content-id="b0806d0f-dce1-4bf0-96fc-890f855a5665" data-vars-headline="India imposes retaliatory tariffs, escalating U.S. trade tensions" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/india-raises-import-duties-on-agri-steel-products-to-protest-us-tariff-hike/story-fung5wX88UshIfORNCwPBK.html" target="_blank">tariff hikes</a> <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="totaling $235 million" data-vars-click-url="https://www.livemint.com/Politics/kMvcOqb1C7sXJBW5RHqf6J/Indias-to-launch-retaliatory-tariffs-on-US-imports-from-4-A.html" data-vars-content-id="b0806d0f-dce1-4bf0-96fc-890f855a5665" data-vars-headline="India imposes retaliatory tariffs, escalating U.S. trade tensions" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.livemint.com/Politics/kMvcOqb1C7sXJBW5RHqf6J/Indias-to-launch-retaliatory-tariffs-on-US-imports-from-4-A.html" target="_blank">totaling $235 million</a> on 29 U.S. goods — including agricultural products, steel and aluminum — in direct retaliation to U.S. tariffs.The big picture: Despite decades of economic frictions, the strategic partnership between the world’s two largest democracies has continued to strengthen. Recently, however, President Trump’s trade policies have inflamed frictions with India, to the potential detriment of security cooperation across the Indo-Pacific region.

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

The series of coordinated blasts that struck several Sri Lankan churches and several hotels Easter Sunday has left more than 207 people reported dead and more than 450 injured — making the cluster of terrorist attacks more deadly than both the 2008 Mumbai attacks and the 2002 Bali bombings.

The big picture: The attacks targeting Christian worshippers suggest a new front in the annals of violence in Sri Lanka. Since the end of the bloody civil war in 2009, the country has mainly returned to peace, so the Easter attacks came as a shock.

Details: The attacks took place in the capital city of Colombo, the nearby city of Negambo, and in Batticaloa, across the island on the country's eastern coast.

By the end of day, the government had attributed the blast to suicide bombings and announced the arrests of 13 unnamed suspects.

Between the lines: Sri Lanka's decades-long civil war was driven largely by ethnolinguistic cleavage, with Tamil separatists in the north and east fighting against the Sinhalese-majority government. The pattern of today’s Easter Sunday attacks in churches point to yet another growing divide.

In its religious demographics, Sri Lanka is overwhelmingly Buddhist, more than 70% of the country’s population of more than 22 million, with around 12% Hindu, just under 10% Muslim, and a little more than 7% Christian.

The country’s earlier history of violence pitted ethnic Sinhalese (mainly Buddhist) against Tamil (mainly Hindu), with the small Muslim and Christian minorities not a target.

Tensions have been growing between Buddhists and Muslims, however; last year Buddhist extremists attacked Sri Lankan Muslims. 

What to watch: The Sri Lankan government also announced the suspension of several social media platforms, including Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram. The inability of such prominent services to catch up to and counter the spread of misinformation, especially during times of crisis, continues to be a major challenge for government and civil society.

In South Asia, governments have repeatedly opted to suspend platforms in situations of emergency, sparking difficult debates about freedom of expression, hate speech and misinformation. Look for this to become a growing concern in the region and beyond.

Alyssa Ayres is senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. She served as U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for South Asia from 2010 to 2013.

Easter terrorist attacks open new front of violence in Sri Lanka

The country has suffered decades of ethnic and religious conflict.

A Sri Lankan Catholic priest among the dead outside a church targeted in the attacks.

A Sri Lankan Catholic priest among the victims outside St Anthony's Church in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Photo: Tharaka Basnayaka/NurPhoto via Getty Images

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Easter terrorist attacks open new front of violence in Sri Lanka

Modi’s vision of India is on the ballot in parliamentary elections

U.S. economic strategy for Indo-Pacific doesn't stack up to China's

India imposes retaliatory tariffs, escalating U.S. trade tensions