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As much as President Trump would like credit for solving the Iran nuclear problem, he will not get far trying to replicate the approach his administration has taken toward North Korea. The facts on the ground in each country are simply too different.

The bottom line: Torpedoing the nuclear deal will not intimidate Iran into talks. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif reiterated the country's position Thursday morning: "We will neither outsource our security nor will we renegotiate or add onto a deal we have already implemented in good faith."

First, North Korea already has nuclear weapons, which Kim Jong-un considers sufficient leverage to negotiate effectively with U.S. By killing the Iran deal, Trump will only convince Tehran that it should secure similar leverage — a bigger nuclear program, perhaps even nuclear weapons — before resuming talks. Trump may also find it difficult to squeeze Iran while continuing to squeeze North Korea, potentially giving Iran even more time to work with. After all, to keep North Korea talking and ultimately making concessions will require concerted and ongoing U.S. pressure.

Second, Iran has a true domestic politics with many competing factions, despite its authoritarian edifice. Although an absolute dictator may be swayed, Iran’s leaders, jostling for power and position, won’t bow to brazen intimidation any more than American politicians would. In fact, Trump’s tactics will likely embolden hardliners in Tehran, who will see an opportunity to sideline rivals tainted by an association with the U.S. — in which case everything that worries the U.S. about Iran will only get worse.

Why it matters: It’s a mistake for Trump to follow his North Korea model — which is still being tested — in deciding the fate of the Iran nuclear deal. A victory for hardliners in Iran will only put the U.S. in a more difficult negotiating position down the line, with much higher stakes.

Vali Nasr is dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Trump's North Korea strategy won't go far with Iran

A U.S. exit from the Iran deal makes an Iranian nuclear weapons program more likely.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Photo: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

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As much as President Trump would like credit for solving the Iran nuclear problem, he will not get far trying to replicate the approach his administration has taken toward North Korea. The facts on the ground in each country are simply too different.The bottom line: Torpedoing the nuclear deal will not intimidate Iran into talks. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="reiterated" data-vars-click-url="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYOnXL6R-B8" data-vars-content-id="a8fdfcf8-2b09-4585-bfe0-261b2e7743a3" data-vars-headline="Trump&#x27;s North Korea strategy won&#x27;t go far with Iran" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYOnXL6R-B8" target="_blank">reiterated</a> the country&#x27;s position Thursday morning: &quot;We will neither outsource our security nor will we renegotiate or add onto a deal we have already implemented in good faith.&quot;

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

President Trump’s favorite hot-and-cold deal-making strategy appears to be losing steam. Trump ratcheted up tensions with North Korea to get Kim to the Singapore summit, and is following the same script with Iran: scuttling the nuclear deal, increasing economic pressure but then proposing talks. But North Korea has been dragging its feet on denuclearization since the summit, and Iran has for now rejected Trump's offer.

The big picture: Both Pyongyang and Tehran have suspected Trump's administration of harboring internal resistance to him, an impression that's been bolstered by Bob Woodward and a senior official's anonymous op-ed. It's clear now that there's a rift between Trump's own  foreign policy and the recommendations of much of his national security team, as well as the default positions of the Republican (not to mention American) foreign policy establishment, and that his administration is thwarting his efforts to implement it. 

Far from benefitting the U.S., Trump’s North Korea strategy advantaged Pyongyang and Beijing. Trump indulged Kim in Singapore,  promised to cancel military exercises with South Korea and relaxed pressure on North Korea. So why is North Korea backtracking, and why would Tehran not see benefit in replicating the Singapore Summit?

Reality check: While engaging Trump could be an opportunity for Pyongyang and Tehran to secure results unfathomable under any other U.S. president, it's also unclear whether Trump would be able to deliver on them, and whether agreements made now would hold after he leaves office.

In Kim's and Rouhani's eyes, the Woodward book and the anonymous op-ed have likely heightened the expectation that the Mueller investigation and possible party setbacks in the midterms could weaken Trump and mire his administration in taxing wars of attrition with Congress. Better not to get into deal-making with a president whose fortunes are uncertain, and whose unorthodox initiatives are bound to be discarded quickly by his successor.

The bottom line: North Korea's and Iran’s postures are not unique. Friends and foes across the world have adopted a wait-and-see approach. Trump’s troubles at home have weakened his hand abroad, and that trend will only intensify if the Democrats take the House in November or the Mueller investigation gets closer to the president. 

Trump administration's foreign policy hampered by internal divisions

Friends and foes across the world have adopted a wait-and-see approach.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo listens as President Trump speaks during a cabinet meeting at the White House on June 21, 2018. Photo: Win McNamee via Getty Images

Trump administration

President Trump’s favorite hot-and-cold deal-making strategy appears to be losing steam. Trump ratcheted up tensions with North Korea to get Kim to the Singapore summit, and is following the same script with Iran: scuttling the nuclear deal, increasing economic pressure but then proposing talks. But North Korea has been dragging its feet on denuclearization since the summit, and Iran has <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="for now rejected Trump&#x27;s offer" data-vars-click-url="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/syria-summit-in-iran-may-decide-idlib-military-offensive/2018/09/07/89adc86e-b25e-11e8-8b53-50116768e499_story.html?utm_term=.7bb110f093dd" data-vars-content-id="ddcff011-502f-4bc4-91fc-7c43ee454643" data-vars-headline="Trump administration&#x27;s foreign policy hampered by internal divisions" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/syria-summit-in-iran-may-decide-idlib-military-offensive/2018/09/07/89adc86e-b25e-11e8-8b53-50116768e499_story.html?utm_term=.7bb110f093dd" target="_blank">for now rejected Trump&#x27;s offer</a>.The big picture: Both Pyongyang and Tehran have suspected Trump&#x27;s administration of harboring internal resistance to him, an impression that&#x27;s been bolstered by Bob Woodward and a senior official&#x27;s anonymous op-ed. It&#x27;s clear now that there&#x27;s a rift between Trump&#x27;s own foreign policy and the recommendations of much of his national security team, as well as the default positions of the Republican (not to mention American) foreign policy establishment, and that his administration is thwarting his efforts to implement it.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

In the span of a month, President Trump has managed to create two nuclear crises. First, he walked away from the Iran nuclear deal, and then he scrapped the North Korea summit. Now, the world faces both the prospect of Iran restarting its nuclear program and the far-more menacing threat of a full-blown nuclear-capable North Korea.

The big picture: Gone is American credibility to manage complex global issues. In fact, rather than acting as the bulwark against dangers to world order, the U.S. is now seen as the country inflaming them.

Ironically, given how Trump has handled the two cases, the sympathy of our allies and  the broader international community lies with Iran and North Korea. He has alienated U.S. allies just when he needs them most, to the benefit of geopolitical rivals: Much to Russia's delight, the demise of the Iran deal has created a rift between the U.S. and its European allies, while the collapse of the Trump–Kim summit has put the U.S. at odds with South Korea, which suits China.

The administration’s strategy can be boiled down to the hope that “maximum pressure” will compel Iran and North Korea to accept new deals. But why would they? The threat of maximum pressure rings hollow when there is scant support for it among U.S. allies. Nor is it convincing that the U.S. would be able to effectively apply maximum pressure on both Iran and North Korea at the same time.

The bottom line: The global expectation now is that Washington will fail. That does not bode well for U.S. foreign policy.

Scrapping the Iran deal and North Korea summit harms U.S. credibility

The global expectation now is that Washington will fail.

Activists gather in front of the U.S. embassy to demand peace for the Korean peninsula after the cancellation of the U.S. and North Korea summit on May 25, 2018 in Seoul, South Korea.  

Activists gather in front of the U.S. embassy in Seoul, South Korea, to demand peace after the cancellation of the U.S.–North Korea summit, on May 25, 2018. Photo: Chung Sung-Jun via Getty Images

North Korea

In the span of a month, President Trump has managed to create two nuclear crises. First, he walked away from the Iran nuclear deal, and then he scrapped the North Korea summit. Now, the world faces both the prospect of Iran restarting its nuclear program and the far-more menacing threat of a full-blown nuclear-capable North Korea.The big picture: Gone is American credibility to manage complex global issues. In fact, rather than acting as the bulwark against dangers to world order, the U.S. is now seen as the country inflaming them.

Vali Nasr

Stories

Trump administration's foreign policy hampered by internal divisions

Scrapping the Iran deal and North Korea summit harms U.S. credibility

Trump's North Korea strategy won't go far with Iran