Driving the news: Russia had shown scant interest in Africa since the fall of the Soviet Union, but it announced $12.5 billion in investments at the summit in Sochi. Most are memorandums of understanding focused on arms, its largest export to Africa.

• In 2017, Russian-African trade surged to $17.4 billion, up significantly from $5.7 billion in 2009. Although Russia’s trade volumes with Africa are relatively tiny, exports represent a larger share of its GDP than China's or India's.

Context: Political instability has spurred an upheaval in international trade flows and pushed nontraditional trading partners to pursue Africa as a new market.

• In 2018, the Trump administration launched Prosper Africa, an initiative to increase U.S. trade and investment on the continent. It will be buoyed by the new U.S. Development Finance Corporation, which can invest in equity and at higher amounts in African companies, making the U.S. private sector more competitive.
• Japan held its seventh Tokyo International Conference on African Development in August. Over the last three years, Japanese companies have invested $20 billion on the continent, and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pledged to continue boosting private investment.
• China has curried favor with African governments by committing $60 billion in investment and building large infrastructure projects through its Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing has also made heavy "soft power" investments in media and education.

Yes, but: There are drawbacks to the worldwide attention.

• Russia’s embrace of authoritarian leaders in Africa and military support in volatile countries like the Central African Republic and Guinea could sow political instability.
• China’s opaque financing of large infrastructure projects, such as Kenya’s “railroad to nowhere,” raises questions about the sustainability of Africa’s debt levels and fears that China could seize vital infrastructure assets.

What to watch: More high-profile summits and initiatives are likely to follow, given the projected growth rates of Africa's population and economy. Next up is the U.K.-Africa Investment Summit in January 2020, followed by the European Union's summit with the African Union.

Paulo Gomes is the founder of Constelor Investment, an investment management firm, and a co-founder of New African Capital Partners.

Background: Investors are already pulling back from emerging markets because of growing concerns over political tensions, which likely contributed to sub-Saharan Africa’s absence on the 2018 A.T. Kearney FDI Confidence Index.

• Further exacerbating the political risk outlook, over a dozen high-profile elections are taking place in Africa this year, including the continent’s two largest markets, Nigeria and South Africa.

Yes, but: Investors’ perceptions of Africa's high political risk need to be put into perspective, assessed within the local context rather than generalized to the whole continent. Broad perceptions of political risk blind investors to opportunities in Africa, which hosts half of the world's fastest-growing economies. Over the next five years, 20 African economies are expected to grow at 5% or higher, outpacing the 3.6% rate for the world economy.

Moreover, political dysfunction has become a global trend. The U.S. just grappled with its longest government shutdown in history, while in the U.K. Theresa May has faced two no-confidence votes in Parliament, impeding her ability to pass her Brexit plan.

The bottom line: Perceptions of risk in African markets need to be better calibrated to global realities and cross-border uncertainties. Many African countries — such as Ethiopia, which is expected to grow by 8.5% this year, and Guinea, which is expected to grow by nearly 6% — remain promising places to do business and will continue to attract savvy investors with a nuanced approach to risk assessment.

Paulo Gomes is the founder of Constelor Investment, an investment management firm, and a co-founder of New African Capital Partners.

Between the lines: An African president would better understand the finance needs of Sub-Saharan Africa.

• Over the next three fiscal years, the World Bank has earmarked $57 billion for the region, with three-fourths of the funds coming from the International Development Fund (IDA), which is dedicated to the world’s poorest countries.
• Over half of IDA funds are expected to flow to Sub-Saharan Africa.

Why it matters: Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s least-developed region, has especially great geopolitical implications. As long as economic opportunity remains scarce on the continent, Africans will migrate elsewhere, particularly to Europe. Rising migration levels have led to the rise of populist parties in Hungary, Austria, Germany and elsewhere, undermining liberal democracy and posing an existential threat to the EU.

In the years to come, demographics and climate change could further exacerbate migration flows:

• Africa’s population is predicted to surge, doubling in size to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, making it the youngest population in the world.
• Unpredictable weather patterns and environmental degradation resulting from climate change in the arid Sahel and Horn will worsen food insecurity and jeopardize livelihoods.

What’s next: The race for the World Bank presidency will be hotly contested in the coming months, with many donor and recipient countries rallying against a Trump appointee. Sub-Saharan African countries will push to advance a candidate who is receptive to their needs.

Paulo Gomes is the founder of Constelor Investment and a co-founder of New African Capital Partners.