National

As the war in Yemen grinds toward its fourth year, the prospects may be improving for a deal to reduce the bloodshed and suffering.

Why it matters: Yemen is facing a terrible humanitarian crisis — potentially the world’s worst in the past century — with as many as half of its 28 million people at risk of starvation, according to UN estimates. The conflict has allowed al-Qaeda’s most dangerous branch to deepen its influence within Yemen and has also spilled over the country’s borders, with regular Houthi drone and missile strikes in Saudi Arabia.

Details: The U.S. Senate’s vote this week to consider cutting support to the Saudi military campaign is the latest sign of momentum toward ending the conflict. On Thursday, the Houthis agreed to attend peace talks in Sweden next week if their safe passage is guaranteed.

Houthi leaders undoubtedly recognize that they will eventually lose the fight for Hodeidah to the Saudi-led coalition, and may calculate that it would be wise to cut a deal before they lose access to the port’s critical resources.

The Saudis, meanwhile, are under intense international pressure in the wake of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder. The potential loss of U.S. military support is likely to generate a newfound willingness on their part to negotiate in earnest.

The Emiratis, who following the bloody fight for Hodeidah likely want to avoid participating in a ground assault on Houthi strongholds in the north, and the Iranians, who provide military support to the Houthis but face their own domestic and international pressures, may be similarly receptive to talks.

What’s next: If UN envoy Martin Griffiths is able to bring together the Saudi-backed Yemen government and the Houthis in Sweden next week, those negotiations will present the best opportunity to achieve progress toward ending, or at least easing, the conflict.

Immediate measures to discuss include a “freeze for freeze” on missile and airstrikes, the creation of cease-fire zones to facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid, and cash injections to prop up Yemen’s devastated banking system.

The bottom line: A rare window of opportunity has opened for a settlement, even if it may not meet each party’s maximalist objectives. For the long-suffering people of Yemen, such a deal is overdue and certainly worth making.

Michael P. Dempsey is the national intelligence fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a government-sponsored fellowship. He is the former acting director of national intelligence and the opinions expressed are his alone.

In Yemeni conflict, signs of diplomatic progress finally appearing

The Houthis have conditionally agreed to UN-sponsored talks next week.

a soldier in a ravaged street of Hodeidah, Yemen

A Yemeni pro-government solider in an industrial district of the port city of Hodeidah on November 18, 2018. Photo: Stringer/AFP/Getty Images

World

Yemeni Civil War

Expert Voices

As the war in Yemen grinds toward its fourth year, the prospects may be improving for a deal to reduce the bloodshed and suffering.Why it matters: Yemen is facing a terrible humanitarian crisis — potentially the world’s worst in the past century — with as many as half of its 28 million people at risk of starvation, according to UN estimates. The conflict has allowed al-Qaeda’s most dangerous branch to deepen its influence within Yemen and has also spilled over the country’s borders, with regular Houthi drone and missile strikes in Saudi Arabia.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Turkey’s last-minute effort to head off a looming offensive from the Syrian, Russian and Iranian governments in Idlib Province has fallen short, leaving open only the question of when and how the offensive will occur. Given Syrian President Assad’s pledge to recapture every inch of Syrian territory, neither Western pleas for restraint nor for a potential campaign targeting only extremist fighters is likely to avert the assault.

Why it matters: Idlib is the last remaining de-escalation zone from 2017’s Russian-led Astana peace process, and is home to more 3 million civilians. It is also home to thousands of the most extreme, battle-hardened al-Qaeda and Islamic State fighters, who now have nowhere in Syria left to go. Difficult terrain and the regime’s history of using chemical weapons in the region only compound the challenges. The U.N. warns that a major military clash could force nearly a million Syrians to flee north toward the Turkish border; as many as 30,000 have already been reported displaced from Idlib in recent days.   

The details: Even before last week’s diplomatic talks concluded, Russian and Syrian jets had begun hammering targets in southwestern Idlib, reportedly dropping cluster munitions and more than a dozen barrel bombs. The Syrian army has also been amassing troops near the province, while Russia has been building up its naval forces off the Syrian coast. Last week, the navy conducted its largest exercise there since entering the conflict in 2015, signaling Moscow’s determination to support the offensive and warning the U.S. to steer clear. 

What’s next: If Assad follows his typical playbook, the regime’s forces and allies will pound the province from the air and with artillery fire, targeting critical infrastructure like hospitals, power generation facilities and the water supply. The aim will be to break the opposition’s will to fight and undermine local support for the extremists. The regime will then try to seize the region’s two main highways to split opposition forces and disrupt their supply lines. If the offensive devolves into street-by-street fighting, the chances increase that regime forces will use chemical munitions.

The bottom line: The Syrian war is poised to enter an ominous stage, one that risks a spike in fighting, a humanitarian crisis and an accidental clash between major powers. Even coming after seven years of conflict, this fight won’t mark the end of the war: Difficult questions linger about the Kurds, control of eastern Syria, Iran’s long-term presence, and the country’s enormous reconstruction costs.

Idlib is the next ugly phase in Syria’s civil war

A major military clash could force nearly a million Syrians to flee.

Displaced Syrians who fled from regime raids ride in a truck with their belongings arrive near a camp in Kafr Lusin near the border with Turkey

Syrians who fled regime raids with their belongings arrive at a camp near the Turkish border in the northern part of Idlib province on September 9, 2018. Photo: Aaref Watad/AFP via Getty Images

Syrian Civil War

Turkey’s last-minute effort to head off a looming offensive from the Syrian, Russian and Iranian governments in Idlib Province has fallen short, leaving open only the question of when and how the offensive will occur. Given Syrian President Assad’s pledge to recapture every inch of Syrian territory, neither Western pleas for restraint nor for a potential campaign targeting only extremist fighters is likely to avert the assault.Why it matters: Idlib is the last remaining de-escalation zone from 2017’s Russian-led Astana peace process, and is home to more 3 million civilians. It is also home to thousands of the most extreme, battle-hardened al-Qaeda and Islamic State fighters, who now have nowhere in Syria left to go. Difficult terrain and the regime’s history of using chemical weapons in the region only compound the challenges. The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="U.N. warns" data-vars-click-url="https://www.un.org/press/en/2018/sc13468.doc.htm" data-vars-content-id="bb0af812-9088-425e-8d05-48fcc31c6c9e" data-vars-headline="Idlib is the next ugly phase in Syria’s civil war" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2018/sc13468.doc.htm" target="_blank">U.N. warns</a> that a major military clash could force nearly a million Syrians to flee north toward the Turkish border; as many as 30,000 have already been reported displaced from Idlib in recent days.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Lost amid the intense international focus on diplomatic talks with North Korea and renewed U.S. tensions with Iran, has been a recent spate of Islamic State attacks across a broad swath of the Middle East and North Africa.

Why it matters: Like the mythological hydra, the Islamic State has remained resilient and lethal, even after losing its physical caliphate in Iraq and Syria last year — continuing to thrive in areas without local authority and legitimacy and to recruit from vulnerable Sunni populations. Equally worrisome, the recent attacks demonstrate the group’s ability to retain its followers; in the year since the fall of Raqqa, no Islamic State branch has renounced its pledge of fealty.

The details: Last week in southern Syria, the Islamic State conducted a series of attacks that killed more than 200 people and wounded 180 more. In Iraq, Islamic State fighters have recently engaged in hit-and-run attacks, kidnappings and other criminal activities, only a few months after Prime Minister Abadi had declared the group defeated.

Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, the Islamic State has launched several high-profile attacks in Kabul in the past few months, including a deadly assault on a voter-registration center and another on the Interior Ministry. Similar deadly attacks have occurred in Libya, Yemen, and the Sinai.

What’s next: The Islamic State is currently focused on keeping a toehold in Iraq and Syria and embedding its supporters into local populations there. The group's leaders undoubtedly calculate that another opportunity to regain territory will present itself once Baghdad and Damascus prove unable, or unwilling, to rebuild shattered communities.

Islamic State leaders are encouraging overseas affiliates to conduct independent operations, especially attacks by local citizens throughout the West. The group will thus remain active in the public’s eye, helping to create the perception of battlefield momentum and attract recruits.

The bottom line: The events of the past few months serve as a sharp reminder that the Islamic State still poses a significant danger, that the conditions that fueled its rise have not been adequately addressed, and that in the absence of a sustained, multi-pronged strategy to confront this threat, the Islamic State will almost certainly regain its footing and force its way back to the top of America’s crowded security agenda.

The Islamic State threat hasn’t gone away

Without a sustained U.S. strategy, the group could further regain its footing.

 Houses and cars are that were destroyed by the Islamic State litter the city with debris. 

Houses and cars destroyed by an Islamic State attack, in Mosul, Iraq, on April 24, 2018. Photo: Kay Nietfeld via Getty Images

ISIS

Politics

Afghanistan

Lost amid the intense international focus on diplomatic talks with North Korea and renewed U.S. tensions with Iran, has been a recent spate of Islamic State attacks across a broad swath of the Middle East and North Africa.Why it matters: Like the mythological hydra, the Islamic State has remained resilient and lethal, even after losing its physical caliphate in Iraq and Syria last year — continuing to thrive in areas without local authority and legitimacy and to recruit from vulnerable Sunni populations. Equally worrisome, the recent attacks demonstrate the group’s ability to retain its followers; in the year since the fall of Raqqa, no Islamic State branch has renounced its pledge of fealty.

Michael P. Dempsey

Stories

In Yemeni conflict, signs of diplomatic progress finally appearing

Idlib is the next ugly phase in Syria’s civil war

The Islamic State threat hasn’t gone away