Details: India has historically resisted global calls to halt coal expansion.

• The commitment by the heavily industrialized state of Gujarat — whose 15.8 GW coal fleet is larger than the U.K.'s — was quickly followed by a similar pledge from Chhattisgarh, home to the country's third largest coal reserves.

Context: Guterres has used the conclusions of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports to press for a transition away from coal.

• As one form of leverage, he may deny South Korea and Japan speaking slots at the summit because of their financial support for new coal plants around the world, according to the Financial Times.

What to watch: As the UN begins to draw a clearer line between countries supporting the Paris agreement goals and those ignoring them, more world leaders may soon announce plans to end coal expansion. A yet greater step, which Guterres has also called for, would be new limits on existing plants.

Justin Guay directs global climate strategy at the Sunrise Project and advises the ClimateWorks Foundation.

Background: According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 1.5 degree report, keeping warming below that threshold requires coal generation to decline 70% by 2030 and be phased out by 2050.

• Separate analyses have suggested that OECD nations need to cut out coal by 2030.
• UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for a moratorium on all new coal plants by 2020.

Between the lines: The GEM report does have some encouraging news.

• Since 2010, only about one third of proposed plants have been built.
• In the first half of 2019, 10 GW of coal plants have come offline, including 6 GW in the U.S. That puts the U.S. on track for its 4th-highest year of coal retirements, though it would mean a drop from the 18 GW retired in 2018.
• Although this is a global problem, only a handful of countries are needed for a solution: 90% of new plant construction is concentrated in just 15 countries, with 52% in India and China alone.

Yes, but: Despite hitting peak coal consumption in 2013, China's subsequent transition from coal has been uneven. More importantly, China, South Korea and Japan account for the majority of public finance for new coal plants in developing countries.

What to watch: If those 3 countries joined the 113 finance institutions with coal exclusion policies, most plants outside India and China would go unfinanced and thus unbuilt.

• Forestalling that construction could give the world a chance to stay within its carbon budget, assuming coal retirements in OECD countries also stay on track.

Justin Guay directs global climate strategy at the Sunrise Project and advises the ClimateWorks Foundation.

What's new: The policy from Chubb, the world’s largest publicly traded property and casualty insurer, will end new coverage for utilities and miners whose power generation or revenue is more than 30% derived from coal, in addition to phasing out existing relationships with such firms.

Background: Since rapid declines in coal power create risk for investors and insurance companies, higher costs of capital and rising premiums could become the “new normal.”

• The Bank of England conducted stress tests on insurer portfolios and consistently found coal investments to have the highest transition risk.
• According to California's voluntary disclosure database, the more than 1,000 insurance companies operating in the U.S. collectively hold over $131 billion in coal investments.
• Willis Towers Watson projects companies that continue to invest in coal will find it harder to replace their coverage as more insurers leave the industry.

Between the lines: The strength of insurers' coal-exit policies varies widely. Chubb’s policy, for example, allows exceptions until 2022 and would not impact large diversified miners like Glencore, whose coal dependence falls below the threshold.

• Per a scorecard by a group of NGOs, some divestment policies define coal companies too narrowly to include many leading developers, while others exempt certain types of insurance or projects as well as assets managed for third parties.
• While divestment policies will raise premiums for utilities like RWE, AEP and Ameren, loopholes could end up dampening the effects. Even still, however, companies unaffected by the policies, like BHP, are planning coal exits in response to investor pressure.

What to watch: Based on a Moody's forecast that coal could fall to 11% of the U.S. power supply by 2030, it will be easier for insurers to implement coal restrictions without hurting their bottom lines. More policies like Chubb's may soon be on the way.

Justin Guay directs global climate strategy at the Sunrise Project and advises the ClimateWorks Foundation.