The assault could be brutal. Russian officials have claimed knowledge of a plan by “militants” to stage a false chemical weapons attack in Idlib, with the goal of framing Assad’s forces. But Secretary of Defense Mattis has said there is “zero intelligence” to support that claim: It is Assad’s government that has a record of using chemical weapons against civilians, and Mattis noted that the Pentagon is “very alert” to the grisly possibility that it could do so again. “There is lots of evidence that chemical weapons are being prepared,” said the new U.S. adviser for Syria on Thursday.

If violence intensifies, hundreds of thousands could try to flee across the border into Turkey. That country already hosts more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees, the world’s largest share. Particularly against the backdrop of a deepening economic crisis, a spate of new arrivals would likely exacerbate inter-communal tensions, which have been on the rise. Turkish President Erdogan has pledged “to facilitate the return home of all our guests,” referring to Syrians already in Turkey. Not least in light of the coming assault, those returns hardly seem safe. As more Syrians arrive, those calls could escalate.

The bottom line: For more than seven years, displaced Syrians have endured a wrenching plight. It seems likely to get worse.

Jessica Brandt is a fellow in the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution.

First, spending on programs that benefit non-citizens was already politically unpopular. Especially at the local level, Turkish government efforts on behalf of refugees have often been quiet, and can continue to be. Second, at least some of the funding for these efforts comes from the EU–Turkey deal, which is not affected by the downturn. More broadly, as the Turkish lira weakens, Euros are likely to go further than before.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t cause for concern. Competition in the informal labor market will likely become tougher. Growth is expected to slow significantly at a time when unemployment figures were already rising. That could increase vulnerability to exploitative work conditions. It could also result in an uptick in child labor, indirectly resulting in a decline in school enrollments and attendance.

What to watch: Meanwhile, if Assad launches a full-scale assault in Syria’s northwest province of Idlib, the country’s last remaining opposition stronghold, more than 2 million Syrians could try to flee to Turkey. Especially against the backdrop of economic crisis, that could further exacerbate intercommunal tensions already on the rise.

Jessica Brandt is a fellow in the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution. Kemal Kirişci is a senior fellow and director of the Turkey Project at the Brookings Institution. 

The offensive, which began in June, violates a “de-escalation” agreement that Russia negotiated with the U.S. and Jordan last summer. It has taken a devastating toll on civilians, not least because of Russian airstrikes. Meanwhile, Assad’s regime has used chemical weapons on its own people and planned to confiscate the property of those forced to flee, seemingly without perturbing Putin.

In the past, the U.S. has held the Russian government at least partially responsible for the Assad regime’s conduct. Not yesterday.

"As far as Syria is concerned," Putin said in Helsinki, "the task of establishing peace and reconciliation in this country could be the first showcase example of this successful joint work." That’s a worthwhile goal. But accomplishing it will require a change in Russian behavior.

Jessica Brandt is a fellow in the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution.