National

President Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner of Venezuela’s presidential election on Sunday with 68% of the vote. Although the main opposition parties boycotted the election, the two opposition candidates who participated came in at 21% and 11%. Maduro will serve another 6-year term after an election characterized by low turnout — 46% compared to 80% in the previous race — and widespread allegations of fraud. 

Why it matters: Although Sunday’s outcome is a far cry from the landslide victories of Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, the country’s economic mismanagement and steady march toward authoritarianism are bound to continue.

What's in store for the country after Maduro’s re-election:

With generalized irregularities before and on election day, Venezuela will remain a competitive authoritarian regime — one where elections are held but the results are predetermined. 

The economic emergency will likely grow more dire, fueling a vicious cycle. The government corruption and mismanagement that contributed to hyperinflation, soaring violent crime, widespread poverty and the unprecedented exodus of Venezuelans will get worse as conditions deteriorate.

Although the recent increase in oil prices has eased some of the financial strain on government coffers, the disarray of Venezuela’s oil industry will prevent higher prices from translating into a palpable improvement in living conditions. With a 
37% production decline since 2015, the government’s inability to preserve its main source of hard currency suggests a slow but steady collapse of the state.

The big picture: As in 2005, boycotting elections has accomplished little for the opposition. To challenge Maduro in the future, the opposition will have to rally behind a common candidate, as in 2013, when Henrique Capriles lost to Maduro by only 1.5% of the vote.

Gustavo Flores-Macías is an associate professor of government at Cornell University.

With opposition in disarray, Maduro’s win spells trouble for Venezuela

Economic mismanagement and the march toward authoritarianism are bound to continue.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro gestures after the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced the results of the voting on election day in Venezuela, on May 20, 2018.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro after winning his re-election on May 20, 2018. Photo: Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images

World

Venezuela

Expert Voices

President Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner of <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Venezuela’s presidential election" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/nicolas-maduro-venezuela-elections-ef75c26f-21e6-47de-be63-9e9eabff9ed5.html" data-vars-content-id="3a1ad95e-ec91-4445-9edf-c729760edc01" data-vars-headline="With opposition in disarray, Maduro’s win spells trouble for Venezuela" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/nicolas-maduro-venezuela-elections-ef75c26f-21e6-47de-be63-9e9eabff9ed5.html" target="_self">Venezuela’s presidential election</a> on Sunday with 68% of the vote. Although the main opposition parties boycotted the election, the two opposition candidates who participated came in at 21% and 11%. Maduro will serve another 6-year term after an election characterized by low turnout — 46% compared to 80% in the previous race — and widespread allegations of fraud. Why it matters: Although Sunday’s outcome is a far cry from the landslide victories of Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, the country’s economic mismanagement and steady march toward authoritarianism are bound to continue.

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

Last week Raúl Castro fulfilled his promise to step down at the end of his second term as Cuba’s president, marking at least a nominal end to the Castro era. But many remain skeptical that political or economic change is really on the horizon: Castro's successor, Miguel Díaz-Canel, was chosen and carefully groomed precisely because he shares the vision of Cuba’s aging revolutionary guard. 

Yes, but: Symbolic changes still matter, and Cubans will get used to everyday life without a Castro in office. The transfer of power presents an opportunity for the island to go down a different path — one with more room for both political contestation and private enterprise.

Castro is slated to remain in control of the two main sources of power on the island, the Communist Party and the armed forces, until 2021. But this interim period could give Díaz-Canel an opening to grow comfortable in the presidency and find more room to maneuver as Castro approaches 90.

The bottom line:  Cuba is beset by major challenges, including crumbling infrastructure, low productivity and a two-currency system. If the pragmatic new president can improve the lives of Cubans, he might garner the legitimacy needed to institute meaningful reforms, such as allowing private enterprise beyond the restaurant and tourist industries, lowering the tax burden on the fledgling private sector and letting market considerations drive a single currency.

End of Cuba's Castro era largely symbolic, yet holds promise of change

Castro carefully groomed his successor, but the transition could still be a turning point.

Former Cuban President Raul Castro raises the arm of newly elected Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel.

Former Cuban President Raúl Castro raises the arm of newly elected President Miguel Díaz-Canel. Photo: Adalberto Roque/Pool via Getty Images

Cuba

Last week Raúl Castro <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="fulfilled his promise to step down" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-politics/cuba-set-to-swear-in-new-president-to-replace-raul-castro-idUSKBN1HQ0HL" data-vars-content-id="513a998e-eb82-48bc-8ad1-e0c0d964f891" data-vars-headline="End of Cuba&#x27;s Castro era largely symbolic, yet holds promise of change" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-politics/cuba-set-to-swear-in-new-president-to-replace-raul-castro-idUSKBN1HQ0HL" target="_blank">fulfilled his promise to step down</a> at the end of his second term as Cuba’s president, marking at least a nominal end to the Castro era. But many remain skeptical that political or economic change is really on the horizon: Castro&#x27;s successor, Miguel Díaz-Canel, was chosen and carefully groomed precisely because he shares the vision of Cuba’s aging revolutionary guard. Yes, but: Symbolic changes still matter, and Cubans will get used to everyday life without a Castro in office. The transfer of power presents an opportunity for the island to go down a different path — one with more room for both political contestation and private enterprise.

The U.S. and Mexico announced on Monday that they had reached a tentative agreement over several outstanding and contentious issues in NAFTA negotiations. Canada is expected to rejoin the negotiations on Tuesday, but the U.S. and Mexico have hinted they are willing to proceed without it.

The big picture: The announcement marks an important political victory for Trump, and a pyrrhic one for Mexico. President Trump got quite a bit of what he wanted, while Mexico seemed content to bypass Canada to get a worse deal. Despite both Canada's and Mexico's characterization of the U.S. proposals as unacceptable, Mexico accepted some version of them without getting in return either more NAFTA visas for Mexican nationals or dispute-resolution mechanisms that address the power imbalance.

Rather than joining forces with Canada to preserve key parts of the agreement, Mexico appears to have conceded to all three of Trump’s main demands, including increasing North American–manufactured content requirements in the auto industry, introducing a sunset provision to potentially end the agreement every six years (after the first 10), and diluting trinational dispute-resolution mechanisms.

Although Mexican negotiators see this as a breakthrough, by eschewing trilateral talks they limited their bargaining power and ultimately left money on the table. The proposed rules will negatively affect Mexico's auto-manufacturing industry by mandating that 40% to 45% of auto content be made by workers making at least $16 per hour, while the sunset mechanism will shorten investors' time horizons to about 16 years.

A U.S.–Mexico trade agreement without Canada would face an uphill battle in Congress, not to mention legal challenges to the president’s authority to undo NAFTA. It would also be a far cry from the fully revamped agreement that Trump had promised. 

The bottom line: Regardless, the announcement gives Trump the ability to tout the fulfillment of a major campaign promise ahead of the November midterm elections: the extraction of important concessions from Mexico.  

Mexico hands Trump a partial victory in proposed trade deal

Mexico appears to have conceded to all three of Trump’s main demands.

US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Mexico's Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray Caso as he arrives to speak on trade in the Oval Office.

President Trump shakes hands with Mexico's Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray Caso in the Oval Office on August 27, 2018. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)

Business

Politics

Latin America and Latinos

The U.S. and Mexico announced on Monday that they had reached a tentative agreement over <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="several outstanding and contentious issues in NAFTA negotiations." data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/nafta-us-mexico-preliminary-trade-deal-donald-trump-5359f85f-a1b2-4a1f-a2fc-582c337631bb.html" data-vars-content-id="e491a404-ca88-4ef1-ab71-101c7fbc388f" data-vars-headline="Mexico hands Trump a partial victory in proposed trade deal" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/nafta-us-mexico-preliminary-trade-deal-donald-trump-5359f85f-a1b2-4a1f-a2fc-582c337631bb.html" target="_self">several outstanding and contentious issues in NAFTA negotiations.</a> Canada is expected to rejoin the negotiations on Tuesday, but the U.S. and Mexico have hinted they are willing to proceed without it.The big picture: The announcement marks an important political victory for Trump, and a pyrrhic one for Mexico. President Trump got quite a bit of what he wanted, while Mexico seemed content to bypass Canada to get a worse deal. Despite both Canada&#x27;s and Mexico&#x27;s characterization of the U.S. proposals as unacceptable, Mexico accepted some version of them without getting in return either more NAFTA visas for Mexican nationals or dispute-resolution mechanisms that address the power imbalance.

Gustavo Flores-Macías

Stories

Mexico hands Trump a partial victory in proposed trade deal

With opposition in disarray, Maduro’s win spells trouble for Venezuela

End of Cuba's Castro era largely symbolic, yet holds promise of change