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As the U.S. begins to withdraw troops from Syria, some Iraqi leaders are now demanding the same for their country, even as ISIS is making a comeback.

The big picture: Iraqi politicians and military leaders are divided on the presence of U.S. military forces in the country. Those wanting them out include Shi’a militias under the control of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which wants to gain more power, as well as Muqtada al-Sadr, the maverick cleric whose winning coalition in the May 12 national election gained popular support by running on pledge to secure the withdrawal of all foreign forces from the country.

Background: The U.S. had the greatest number of troops stationed in Iraq in 2007 during the “surge,” more than 165,000. Four years later, the number had decreased to 40,000, with the last major contingent withdrawing in December 2011.

What's new: Many Iraqis saw President Trump’s unannounced December visit as a violation of their country’s sovereignty. Secretary of State Pompeo’s January trip was less controversial, but his push for the remaining 5,200 American troops to stay galvanized politicians who want them out.

Some Iraqi leaders say they no longer need the U.S. to fight ISIS, as they did in 2014 and 2015. They hold the U.S. 2003 invasion partially responsible for ISIS' ability to seize one-fourth of Iraq’s territory.

Leading clerics, many of whom have become increasingly nationalistic, have also called for less foreign influence in the country. 

The other side: Some Iraqi politicians and Iraqi army officials believe they need U.S. troops to prevent an ISIS resurgence. Others are focused on Iranian, rather than U.S., influence, following protests last year during which thousands of Iraqi Shia took to the streets in Basra and Najaf to call for the expulsion of Iranian forces from the country. 

For its part, the U.S. military believes troops are needed to defeat ISIS, counter the influence of Iranian-backed militias, and deter Iranian encroachment from the west, most especially following a U.S. drawdown from Syria.

The bottom line: The issue of the U.S. troop presence is dividing the Iraqi military and Iraqi politicians alike. Expect the debate to intensify as Iranian-aligned militias and some politicians seek to mobilize the Iraqi electorate against the continued presence of U.S. forces, especially if the U.S. Syrian withdrawal proceeds.

Geneive Abdo is a resident scholar at the Arabia Foundation.

As U.S. withdraws from Syria, some want its troops out of Iraq, too

Many Iraqis saw Trump’s recent visit as a violation of their sovereignty.

An Iraqi graffiti artist sprays a cement wall with anti-US President Donald Trump slogans in the southern Iraqi city of Basra on February 2, 2017.

An Iraqi graffiti artist sprays a cement wall with anti-Trump slogans in Basra. Photo: Haidar Mohammed Ali/AFP via Getty Images

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Politics

As the U.S. begins to withdraw troops from Syria, some Iraqi leaders are now <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="demanding the same" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/27/world/middleeast/trump-iraq-visit.html" data-vars-content-id="db2821a4-3a8d-4465-834a-2ec1b88f89a2" data-vars-headline="As U.S. withdraws from Syria, some want its troops out of Iraq, too" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/27/world/middleeast/trump-iraq-visit.html" target="_blank">demanding the same</a> for their country, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="even as ISIS is making a comeback." data-vars-click-url="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iraqis-fear-defeated-islamic-state-could-make-comeback-n951611" data-vars-content-id="db2821a4-3a8d-4465-834a-2ec1b88f89a2" data-vars-headline="As U.S. withdraws from Syria, some want its troops out of Iraq, too" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iraqis-fear-defeated-islamic-state-could-make-comeback-n951611" target="_blank">even as ISIS is making a comeback.</a>The big picture: Iraqi politicians and military leaders are divided on the presence of U.S. military forces in the country. Those wanting them out include <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Shi’a militias" data-vars-click-url="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/27/iraq-us-troop-withdrawal-trump-1076363" data-vars-content-id="db2821a4-3a8d-4465-834a-2ec1b88f89a2" data-vars-headline="As U.S. withdraws from Syria, some want its troops out of Iraq, too" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/27/iraq-us-troop-withdrawal-trump-1076363" target="_blank">Shi’a militias</a> under the control of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which wants to gain more power, as well as <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Muqtada al-Sadr" data-vars-click-url="https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/27/middleeast/iraq-lawmakers-reject-trump-visit/index.html" data-vars-content-id="db2821a4-3a8d-4465-834a-2ec1b88f89a2" data-vars-headline="As U.S. withdraws from Syria, some want its troops out of Iraq, too" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/27/middleeast/iraq-lawmakers-reject-trump-visit/index.html" target="_blank">Muqtada al-Sadr</a>, the maverick cleric whose winning coalition in the May 12 national election gained popular support by running on pledge to secure the withdrawal of all foreign forces from the country.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is expected to announce Wednesday that Tehran may withdraw in whole or in part from the 2015 nuclear deal, potentially by resuming production of high-grade centrifuges for nuclear fuel and limiting inspections of nuclear facilities.

Why it matters: If Iran were to withdraw even partially from the deal, it could see its economy plummet further while military tensions with the U.S. ratchet up. Its internal power balance could also tilt more toward hardliners, who oppose any policies seen as accommodating the West.

Background: Since the U.S. withdrawal from the deal, Iran has counted on European states to pressure the private sector, especially oil companies, to find ways to circumvent U.S. sanctions and continue doing business in Iran.

But few large firms have been willing to risk violating U.S. law and being banned from the international banking system. As a result, Iran’s economy has taken a hit, with cash reserves depleting as oil exports fall 70%.

Between the lines: Iran has few cards left to play in the face of the U.S. "maximum pressure" campaign. If its actions prompt Europeans to re-impose sanctions, the West would have no remaining diplomatic leverage should Iran opt for military escalation, whether directly or through its proxies in Syria and Iraq.

Iran’s ongoing military activities across the Middle East — though not the priority of U.S. diplomacy under President Obama — present an arguably greater threat to U.S. regional interests than its possible development of a nuclear weapon. Trump and his cohorts, by contrast, have tried to focus on both threats at the same time.

What to watch: A shift in Iran’s compliance with the deal could give Trump ammunition with foreign governments that have argued for trusting Tehran. Should Iran decide to attack U.S. troops in the Middle East or ships in the Gulf, there would be even fewer states willing to come to its defense.

Iran could step out of nuclear deal, leaving West little leverage

The move would play to hardliners in Iran but risk further economic harm.

Hassan Rouhani seated at a press conference

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Photo: Iranian Presidency/Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Iran deal

Iran

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="expected to announce" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/06/world/middleeast/iran-trump-nuclear-deal.html" data-vars-content-id="e3a3f7ca-e6a4-4b00-a2a7-f41ae064c9c2" data-vars-headline="Iran could step out of nuclear deal, leaving West little leverage" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/06/world/middleeast/iran-trump-nuclear-deal.html" target="_blank">expected to announce</a> Wednesday that Tehran may withdraw in whole or in part from the 2015 nuclear deal, potentially by resuming production of high-grade centrifuges for nuclear fuel and limiting inspections of nuclear facilities.Why it matters: If Iran were to withdraw even partially from the deal, it could see its economy plummet further while military tensions with the U.S. ratchet up. Its internal power balance could also tilt more toward hardliners, who oppose any policies seen as accommodating the West.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

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Geneive Abdo

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Iran could step out of nuclear deal, leaving West little leverage

As U.S. withdraws from Syria, some want its troops out of Iraq, too