National

If the Supreme Court does overturn Roe v. Wade and send decisions on abortion rights back to the states, it would usher in a new era of power, influence and visibility for statewide politicians across the county.

Why it matters: We're in the midst of a political moment that could jumpstart the national profiles of Democratic politicians, especially women.

Jen Jordan, Georgia state senator and attorney general candidate

During the 2019 fight over Georgia’s 6-week abortion ban, Jordan gave a speech about her experiences with miscarriage. It captured national attention and vaulted her to the forefront of the state's reproductive rights movement.

What's happening: Now in a statewide race to become Georgia's first woman attorney general, Jordan is continuing to embrace her voice on the issue in the wake of the Roe draft decision leak.

She’s currently exploring possible legal remedies at the state level for an attorney general to pursue, should Roe be overturned.

What she’s saying: Jordan told Axios while she didn’t intend to become a face of this issue, and almost didn’t give the 2019 speech, she thinks that — especially as a lawyer — "I am the person to take on this fight."

Louise Lucas, Virginia Senate president pro tempore

In Virginia, any GOP efforts to tighten abortion restrictions would have to get through the state Senate, where Democrats still hold a one-seat majority and Lucas is the party’s 78-year-old ceremonial leader in the chamber.

"I have one message tonight. When [GOP Gov.] Glenn Youngkin comes to take away our abortion rights — he is going to run into a BRICK WALL," she tweeted Monday night.

What to watch: Lucas spent the week fundraising, reminding supporters that all 40 senators are up for re-election next year. "We will need to raise an enormous amount of money," she wrote.

McMorrow made national news — the New Yorker called her "a role model for the midterms" — with an assertive floor speech last month in response to accusations from a Republican colleague that she was grooming and sexualizing children.

Her emphatic tone and plain speaking stood in contrast to more milquetoast responses from other Democrats nationwide when faced with patently false statements amid the country's deepening culture war.

The bottom line: "We have to let go of the idea that this is politics as usual," she told the New Yorker.

Nikki Fried, Florida agriculture commissioner and gubernatorial candidate

Fried has emerged as one of Gov. Ron DeSantis' most outspoken critics over the last year, and she currently trails U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist in a primary battle for the right to take on DeSantis in the fall.

She's using this moment to uplift women, but also take on both men — including leading a fundraising push blasting Crist, who was once a Republican, for his pro-life stance during his prior stint as the state's governor.

What she's saying: "We make sure that we are standing on shoulders of the women that came before us and we are fighting for the next generation of women to make sure they have access to affordable reproductive health care," she told a rally this week.

Axios' Joe Guillen, Emma Hurt, Ben Montgomery, Ned Oliver and Selene San Felice contributed to this report.

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Editor's note: This story has been corrected to reflect that Jen Jordan is a Georgia state senator, not a state representative.

4 Democratic women legislators to watch in a post-Roe America

We're in the midst of a generational political moment.

Photo illustration of Jen Jordan, Louise Lucas, Mallory McMorrow, and Nikki Fried.

Abortion

Politics & Policy

A leaked draft Supreme Court opinion showing the justices are poised to overturn Roe v. Wade has injected new urgency into midterm races across the country. 

Why it matters: Removing federal protection for abortion rights is likely to jumpstart voters of both parties, and bring heightened scrutiny to some previously sleepy races.

State of play: Purple states, especially those currently with divided control between their governor's mansion and legislature, now have added attention on their statewide races.

Pennsylvania's governor's race — which had taken a backseat to the battle for its Senate seat — could now decide the fate of abortion rights in the state. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, long antagonized by a Republican legislature, is term-limited, and his replacement will decide what's next.

In North Carolina, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's term isn't up until 2024, but he's now trying to avoid a GOP supermajority in the state legislature that could veto his attempts to preserve abortion rights.

"That's where the battles will move to — the state capitals — and where these fundamental freedoms will be won and lost. And it will matter who [the] governors are," Cooper told Axios.

Zoom in: The stakes also got higher for Democrats to try to flip their own gubernatorial races, especially in Georgia, where the party managed to lock down two Senate seats in the 2020 cycle.

The state saw an emotional, polarized battle over a six-week abortion ban in 2019, which has been frozen in federal court pending the Supreme Court decision.

Incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp, the leading Republican candidate, championed Georgia's 2019 anti-abortion law.

On Tuesday, he vowed to continue defending the "strongest pro-life law in the country," but did not go as far as his primary opponent David Perdue, who said he would call a special legislative session to "ban abortion," if elected. 

Presumptive Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams said she is "enraged" and "appalled" by the implications of the leaked decision.

Even in states where big races aren't expected to flip, like Florida's gubernatorial contest, the news energized Democrats in the race — especially coupled with the state's new 15-week abortion ban taking effect July 1.

"This is just Step 1 of this radical-right agenda across our country," Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried said at a well-attended, impromptu rally in Miami. "And if you're not angry today, what are you waiting for?"

"I just wish this weren't happening to America. It's heartbreaking," former governor and U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist told reporters.

Of note: Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has been silent on Twitter since the leaked ruling was published Monday night. 

The bottom line: Even if Roe is indeed ultimately overturned by the Supreme Court, the true effects of that decision won't be known in some key states until after the midterms.

Axios' Taylor Allen, Emma Hurt, Ben Montgomery, Selene San Felice and Lucille Sherman contributed to this report.

Abortion battleground states brace for midterm brawl

"That's where the battles will move to — the state capitals — and where these fundamental freedoms will be won and lost."

Illustrations of ballots in an hour glass, with a small amount of red ones in the bottom and many more blue ones above

Policymaking

A leaked draft Supreme Court opinion showing the justices are poised to overturn Roe v. Wade has injected new urgency into midterm races across the country. Why it matters: Removing federal protection for abortion rights is likely to jumpstart voters of both parties, and bring heightened scrutiny to some previously sleepy races.

As America's record Omicron surge continues, cities and states across the country have no cohesive strategy to monitor the results of at-home rapid COVID tests.

Why it matters: This patchwork system means the official COVID case counts are almost certainly a vast undercount. Many cities don't have an accurate sense of just how prevalent COVID is as they make decisions about mask mandates, school closures and other restrictions.

One of the better systems is run by Washington, D.C., where the city has established a portal to report positives from an at-home rapid test, allowing a contact tracer to get in touch.

The state of Colorado has a similar portal, and the city of Austin, Texas, has an email address to report at-home positives.

Yes, but: Residents don't always know about these options, and because they're all ad hoc systems, they can be difficult to track down even for the people who are inclined to use them.

That's exemplified by a place like the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, where Fort Worth's Tarrant County has an extensive self-reporting tool while Dallas County simply refers back to the CDC's general guidance on at-home testing.

There's also no requirement to report an at-home positive result, even if the service is available.

And many people may not even realize that they have the option at all.

The other side: Many areas simply don't have a system in place at all. "It is my perception that there is an understanding that cases are indeed higher because some people are testing positive using home kits," said Jessica Corbitt, a spokesperson for Georgia's Fulton County, which contains most of Atlanta.

Chicago says that at-home tests are a helpful diagnostic tool, but they "are not included in official COVID-19 case counts."

In Des Moines, the Polk County Health Department only counts cases verified using a PCR test.

In the Twin Cities, the Minnesota Department of Health cites the lack of "a good way to verify the results" as its basis for not tracking at-home results.

What they're saying: Minnesota Department of Health spokesman Doug Schultz told Axios that the state's reasoning on at-home tests is based on the fact that "we don’t have complete case ascertainment now."

"We may not be able to count every case, but people will continue to get laboratory-run testing, so our data will still provide a picture of what is happening in the state," Schultz added.

North Carolina has a similar take. "There are going to be more cases out there than are reflective in our data. What we’re really interested in is our hospitalization data. That’s our key focus right now," said Dr. Susan Kansagra, acting senior deputy director for the state's Division of Public Health.

The big picture: Rapid tests are already in short supply, and a small preprint study released this week found that people may not test positive with them until after they're infectious, which would make them an unreliable measure of whether it's safe to gather, as Axios' Caitlin Owens reported.

"Based on viral load and transmissions confirmed through epidemiological investigation, most Omicron cases were infectious for several days before being detectable by rapid antigen tests," the study's authors wrote.

The bottom line: Omicron may have exposed the limitations of at-home rapid tests — not only as a gauge of how big the current case surge truly is, but also as a possible pathway to avoid COVID disruptions in daily life.

Axios' Chelsea Cirruzzo, Jason Clayworth, Katie Peralta Soloff, Asher Price, Torey Van Oot and Thomas Wheatley contributed to this report.

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Much of America isn't tracking at-home COVID test results

The current record COVID caseload is almost certainly a vast undercount.

An at-home COVID swab casting a shadow in the shape of a question mark.

COVID-19

Coronavirus

As <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="America&#x27;s record Omicron surge" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/covid-cases-hospitals-omicron-wave-less-severe-ac81dd8b-082d-4f06-bff8-93825a0ce9a5.html" data-vars-content-id="a85df479-586e-41bb-b948-186a43c749f6" data-vars-headline="Much of America isn&#x27;t tracking at-home COVID test results" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/covid-cases-hospitals-omicron-wave-less-severe-ac81dd8b-082d-4f06-bff8-93825a0ce9a5.html" target="_self">America&#x27;s record Omicron surge</a> continues, cities and states across the country have no cohesive strategy to monitor the results of at-home rapid COVID tests.Why it matters: This patchwork system means the official COVID case counts are almost certainly a vast undercount. Many cities don&#x27;t have an accurate sense of just how prevalent COVID is as they make decisions about mask mandates, school closures and other restrictions.

The U.S. faces a range of health care flashpoints — unaffordable drugs, opioids, vaping — as we debate whether to adopt universal care. For now, the Affordable Care Act is the law of the land, but Republicans want to issue it a final death blow.

Health

As Omicron continues to spread, schools across the U.S. are struggling with teacher shortages that have forced them to consolidate classes and lean on administrative staff to fill in as substitutes.

Why it matters: School closures and virtual classes can do lasting damage to kids' academic achievement — but so can some of the accommodations schools have had to make in order to stay open.

"If staff is out and you're just farming fifth-graders into a first-grade classroom, is that learning or is that babysitting?" asks John Coneglio, president of the Columbus Education Association teachers union.

"How long can we sustain this? We already have people leaving their jobs," said Kelly Wilson, president of Minnesota's Osseo Local #1212 teachers union.

What's happening: COVID has forced schools to shutter this month across America, often on a building-by-building basis as districts deal with mounting absences on the fly.

Chicago has been a focal point for this battle as the city's teachers union stayed home, cancelling days of classes over what it believes are unsafe work conditions.

Where schools have attempted to stay open, teachers are in short supply. Columbus City Schools was 124 substitute teachers short of its goal of 740 during the first week of January, according to district spokesperson Jacqueline Bryant.

How they're coping: In the Washington, D.C., area, like many school districts around the country, teachers often have to add students into their classrooms or miss their planning periods to teach other classes.

In Philadelphia and the Twin Cities, administrative and support staff have been forced to step into the breach as classroom fill-ins.

The impact: One Denver-area high school senior said that it's "back to the whole 2020 [thing]." He added that virtual class felt like "just hearing the teacher talk and their face and their voice" for the entire period.

The big picture: None of these issues taking teachers to the brink are new, but COVID has just made them worse, as Axios' Erica Pandey reported.

"It's a problem that existed pre-pandemic, it has been exacerbated by the pandemic, and the teacher shortage will not disappear with the pandemic," said Michael Rice, Michigan's state superintendent of public instruction.

The bottom line: Schools across America are trying to stay open, but it's still anyone's guess how effective that strategy will ultimately be — for everyone involved.

Editor's note: This piece has been updated to clarify that Columbus City Schools was short of its goal for substitute teachers, not teachers generally.

Axios' Taylor Allen, Alayna Alvarez, Monica Eng, Nick Halter, Paige Hopkins and Alissa Widman Neese contributed to this report.

America struggles to keep schools open

Education

As Omicron continues to spread, schools across the U.S. are struggling with teacher shortages that have forced them to consolidate classes and lean on administrative staff to fill in as substitutes.Why it matters: School closures and virtual classes can do lasting damage to kids&#x27; academic achievement — but so can some of the accommodations schools have had to make in order to stay open.

With America in a pandemic lull, communities across the country are choosing to shut down COVID testing and vaccination sites, even as experts warn that another wave could be on the horizon.

Why it matters: The Omicron surge showed how our defenses can be quickly overwhelmed, but many places are scaling back anyway.

These latest shifts are often taking place in more solidly Democratic areas that have prided themselves on their pandemic response so far.

Driving the news: Colorado announced last week its intention to close 14 state-run testing and vaccination sites by the end of the month, and it ended a program to ship at-home rapid tests to residents.

That means definitive PCR tests and vaccines in the state — including boosters — will more often need to come from battle-weary health care providers moving forward.

New strategies are needed because vaccine demand is plummeting, ​​Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment spokesperson Kristen Stewart told Axios.

Minnesota is similarly preparing to shift into an "endemic" phase of pandemic management by finalizing plans to close community testing and vaccination sites.

Gov. Tim Walz told Axios the state will do so "with the ability to pop them out almost immediately should we need them again."

"What happens if we have to come back here in April, May or August whenever the next surge comes?" he added. "How do we properly scale back up?"

Austin, Texas, has closed at least three testing sites run by Austin Public Health since mid-February "to meet the evolving needs of our communities and in response to declining testing demand."

At Omicron's peak, APH teams administered more than 5,500 tests in just three days, but by mid-February, the weekly figure dropped to just 410.

"Moving away from mass testing and vaccination sites allows APH to return to its core mission — serving as a safety net provider," APH officials wrote in an email to Axios.

The big picture: There might not be relief from the federal government if another surge comes, as the Biden administration sounded the alarm that it doesn't have the funding to secure fourth vaccine doses for many Americans should they become necessary, the Washington Post reports.

Plus, falling demand is causing testing manufacturers to cut back production — just like last year, per Politico.

Worth noting: The country should have significant built-in immunity to the more-transmissible Omicron subvariant driving concerns of another wave, thanks to the past winter's sky-high caseloads.

"[H]opefully, when we do — and I think it will be that we do — see an uptick [in cases], hopefully, it won't be accompanied by an increase in hospitalizations," Anthony Fauci told the Post this week.

What they're saying: Last week, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said during a press conference that the pandemic is entering "the next phase of individual responsibility, preparedness and prosperity" as the state announced it would move "from crisis response to disease management."

"[I]n most instances individual decision-making and risk assessment is the appropriate path forward," read a North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services document on the plan.

The bottom line: As Americans start returning to normal life en masse, officials across the country are once again similarly shifting policy — and hoping it sticks this time.

Axios' John Frank, Katie Peralta Soloff, Asher Price and Torey Van Oot contributed to this report.

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The U.S. powers down its COVID defenses

Many communities are charging headlong into a new normal.

Public health

With America in a pandemic lull, communities across the country are choosing to shut down COVID testing and vaccination sites, even as experts warn that <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="another wave" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/omicron-subvariant-sparks-reopening-jitters-76a976ec-0032-46bf-bf34-cfd96e8ff7cc.html" data-vars-content-id="c5a27f37-bcf1-43a7-9851-9d483bf32e5b" data-vars-headline="The U.S. powers down its COVID defenses" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/omicron-subvariant-sparks-reopening-jitters-76a976ec-0032-46bf-bf34-cfd96e8ff7cc.html" target="_self">another wave</a> could be on the horizon.Why it matters: The Omicron surge showed how <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="our defenses can be quickly overwhelmed" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/biden-covid-omicron-falling-behind-13b12a1f-b185-473c-ac5c-cf5a50892149.html" data-vars-content-id="c5a27f37-bcf1-43a7-9851-9d483bf32e5b" data-vars-headline="The U.S. powers down its COVID defenses" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/biden-covid-omicron-falling-behind-13b12a1f-b185-473c-ac5c-cf5a50892149.html" target="_self">our defenses can be quickly overwhelmed</a>, but many places are scaling back anyway.

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