National

The Kremlin has no worries that Vladimir Putin will be re-elected with a commanding majority on March 18. Securing a commanding turnout could still be a headache, however.

Legitimacy matters to Russia's leadership, which has a "70/70 plan": 70% turnout, 70% of the vote for Putin. But recent polling suggests closer to 60% plan to vote, with some experts predicting a drop as far as 53%. So what's sapping enthusiasm?

Putin's announcement last week of his intention to seek a fourth term removed the only real intrigue from the race. With no viable opposition candidates running, there's little incentive to participate in an effectively pre-determined vote.

Economic growth has stalled: The fastest Russia's GDP has grown since 2013 is 2%, and most people have seen their real disposable income shrink in that time. At the end of the day, pocketbook issues outweigh geopolitics.

To boost turnout, the election was moved to the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea, though Putin's surge in support after that move has become old news. And in a somewhat different voter incentive, select polling places will be turned into carnivals. Will either tactic work? We'll find out soon enough.

The bottom line: Putin will be re-elected. But the Kremlin faces the delicate balancing act of holding elections real enough to win popular legitimacy, but not so real as to risk an embarrassment.

Vladimir Putin has a turnout problem

Voter enthusiasm has dropped as economic growth sags.

Election officials prepare a voting booth in the village of Gusino, outside Smolensk, western Russia, on Sept. 17, 2016. Photo: Sergei Grits / AP

Politics

Expert voices

Expert Voices

World

The Kremlin has no worries that Vladimir Putin will be re-elected with a commanding majority on March 18. Securing a commanding turnout could still be a headache, however.<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Legitimacy matters to Russia&#x27;s leadership" data-vars-click-url="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/12/06/yes-the-kremlin-is-worried-about-russias-own-presidential-elections/?utm_term=.b09e8f2e97c9" data-vars-content-id="2a0a0206-7e73-4ed4-bf5d-d1aee33db831" data-vars-headline="Vladimir Putin has a turnout problem" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/12/06/yes-the-kremlin-is-worried-about-russias-own-presidential-elections/?utm_term=.b09e8f2e97c9" target="_blank">Legitimacy matters to Russia&#x27;s leadership</a>, which has a &quot;70/70 plan&quot;: 70% turnout, 70% of the vote for Putin. But recent polling suggests closer to 60% plan to vote, with some experts predicting a drop as far as 53%. So what&#x27;s sapping enthusiasm?<ul><li>Putin&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="announcement last week" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/06/world/europe/russia-vladimir-putin-president.html" data-vars-content-id="2a0a0206-7e73-4ed4-bf5d-d1aee33db831" data-vars-headline="Vladimir Putin has a turnout problem" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/06/world/europe/russia-vladimir-putin-president.html" target="_blank">announcement last week</a> of his intention to seek a fourth term removed the only real intrigue from the race. With no viable opposition candidates running, there&#x27;s little incentive to participate in an effectively pre-determined vote.</li><li>Economic growth has stalled: The fastest Russia&#x27;s GDP has grown since 2013 is 2%, and most people have seen their real disposable income shrink in that time. At the end of the day, pocketbook issues outweigh geopolitics.</li></ul>To boost turnout, the election was moved to the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea, though Putin&#x27;s surge in support after that move has become old news. And in a somewhat different voter incentive, select <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="polling places will be turned into carnivals" data-vars-click-url="https://app.salesforceiq.com/r?target=5a315644e4b0865026397b1d&amp;t=AFwhZf3e845GFnF4bqItyO9UDFRbBiQtkrJvwXP2X4YhLYfFPtyV1VTednqwsbDVX3hVtAWjv5tFd3cM6Gej6sl2U2EYFFKOVnBBDtyOxrpqy-2amy4BwbjQ7QYWfuhN3hsVAPQghXNS" data-vars-content-id="2a0a0206-7e73-4ed4-bf5d-d1aee33db831" data-vars-headline="Vladimir Putin has a turnout problem" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://app.salesforceiq.com/r?target=5a315644e4b0865026397b1d&amp;t=AFwhZf3e845GFnF4bqItyO9UDFRbBiQtkrJvwXP2X4YhLYfFPtyV1VTednqwsbDVX3hVtAWjv5tFd3cM6Gej6sl2U2EYFFKOVnBBDtyOxrpqy-2amy4BwbjQ7QYWfuhN3hsVAPQghXNS" target="_blank">polling places will be turned into carnivals</a>. Will either tactic work? We&#x27;ll find out soon enough.The bottom line: Putin will be re-elected. But the Kremlin faces the delicate balancing act of holding elections real enough to win popular legitimacy, but not so real as to risk an embarrassment.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Although Russia's presidential election is not until March, it's clear that Vladimir Putin will be re-elected. What's less clear, and more interesting, is who he will then pick as his prime minister.

Putin's choice will offer hints about the agenda for his next term. A reform-oriented candidate like former finance minister Alexei Kudrin would signal acknowledgment of worries about the economy and willingness to take painful steps to improve it: reducing the state's economic footprint or addressing unsustainable social spending.

Last spring, current prime minister Dmitri Medvedev was thought to be a goner after corruption allegations against him and ensuing mass protests. Keeping him on would indicate that Putin is more confident in his stability. With questions about Putin's own political future only growing louder — he's 65 and this next term would be his last under constitutional limits — he may feel no need to rock the boat unless absolutely necessary.

The bottom line: In Russia, the president holds much more power than the prime minister. Ironically, Putin's choice of prime minister looks to be more telling than his own re-election.

To tell where Russia is headed, look to Putin's PM pick

Putin's decision will likely signal a choice between continuity and reform.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev speaks during a TV interview broadcast in Moscow on Nov. 30, 2017. Photo: Alexander Astafyev, Sputnik / Government Pool Photo via AP

Although Russia&#x27;s presidential election is not until March, it&#x27;s clear that Vladimir Putin will be re-elected. What&#x27;s less clear, and more interesting, is who he will then pick as his prime minister.Putin&#x27;s choice will offer hints about the agenda for his next term. A reform-oriented candidate like former finance minister Alexei Kudrin would signal acknowledgment of worries about the economy and willingness to take painful steps to improve it: reducing the state&#x27;s economic footprint or addressing unsustainable social spending.Last spring, current prime minister Dmitri Medvedev was thought to be a goner after <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="corruption allegations" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/27/world/europe/in-protests-kremlin-fears-a-young-generation-stirring.html" data-vars-content-id="3543242e-518d-4460-8ba9-11164b4848b1" data-vars-headline="To tell where Russia is headed, look to Putin&#x27;s PM pick" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/27/world/europe/in-protests-kremlin-fears-a-young-generation-stirring.html" target="_blank">corruption allegations</a> against him and ensuing mass protests. Keeping him on would indicate that Putin is more confident in his stability. With questions about Putin&#x27;s own political future only growing louder — he&#x27;s 65 and this next term would be his last under constitutional limits — he may feel no need to rock the boat unless absolutely necessary.The bottom line: In Russia, the president holds much more power than the prime minister. Ironically, Putin&#x27;s choice of prime minister looks to be more telling than his own re-election.

Russia's annexation of Crimea propelled President Vladimir Putin's popularity to stratospheric highs — up to 80% — where it hovered for years. Now, economic stagnation and unpopular policies such as a value-added tax hike and, critically, pension reform have dragged his ratings back down. Recent polling shows his approval down to the neighborhood of 60%.

Why it matters: Putin is still a popular leader by international standards, though his approval has dropped back to pre-Crimea levels — a time when he faced serious political protest. Unlike in 2012, however, Putin will find it difficult to pin the economic sources of the decline on a foreign plot, and, absent the right opportunity abroad, will struggle to divert the Russian populace's increasing dissatisfaction with its stagnant fortunes.

Aaron Schwartzbaum founded and writes a column for BMB Russia, a daily news brief from the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Putin's popularity comes back down to earth

Unlike in 2012, it will be hard for him to pin the decline on a foreign plot.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin during a lunch with Turkmenistan's President

President Vladimir Putin during a lunch with Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow at the Bocharov Ruchei residence. Photo: Alexei Nikolsky/TASS via Getty Images

Vladimir Putin

Russia

Russia&#x27;s annexation of Crimea propelled President Vladimir Putin&#x27;s popularity to stratospheric highs — up to 80% — where it hovered for years. Now, economic stagnation and unpopular policies such as a value-added tax hike and, critically, pension reform have dragged his ratings back down. <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Recent polling" data-vars-click-url="http://www.levada.ru/en/" data-vars-content-id="53070327-f7e0-41ca-bd2d-fac806eebcff" data-vars-headline="Putin&#x27;s popularity comes back down to earth" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="http://www.levada.ru/en/" target="_blank">Recent polling</a> shows his approval down to the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="neighborhood of 60%." data-vars-click-url="https://wciom.ru/news/ratings/odobrenie_deyatelnosti_gosudarstvennyx_institutov/" data-vars-content-id="53070327-f7e0-41ca-bd2d-fac806eebcff" data-vars-headline="Putin&#x27;s popularity comes back down to earth" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://wciom.ru/news/ratings/odobrenie_deyatelnosti_gosudarstvennyx_institutov/" target="_blank">neighborhood of 60%.</a>Why it matters: Putin is still a popular leader by international standards, though his approval has dropped back to pre-Crimea levels — a time when he faced serious political protest. Unlike in 2012, however, Putin will find it difficult to pin the economic sources of the decline on a foreign plot, and, absent the right opportunity abroad, will struggle to divert the Russian populace&#x27;s increasing dissatisfaction with its stagnant fortunes.Aaron Schwartzbaum founded and writes a column for BMB Russia, a daily news brief from the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Putin has delayed his yearly address to the Federal Assembly (Russia's equivalent of the State of the Union) until later in February — ostensibly to boost intrigue surrounding the election. Reports suggest he will use the speech to lay out the agenda for his presumptive next term, one that will feature potentially painful reforms such as tax increases or a higher retirement age, alongside popular spending increases on education and healthcare.

Why it matters: Due to years of economic contraction and stagnation, Russians are increasingly demanding measures to improve their living standards. Over Putin's last term, Russia's foreign policy was trumpeted at home largely in place of a real domestic agenda, with "making Russia great again" sufficient to garner votes.

That approach, however, has lost the political appeal it once had. Moreover, with the potential for this next term to be Putin’s last, the importance of shoring up the stability and legitimacy of his political system has only grown.

The bottom line: Barring crisis, expect more inward policy and rhetoric from Russia's leadership in the year ahead, if not longer. Whether meaningful reforms are actually delivered is different question altogether.

Aaron Schwartzbaum is founder and editor in chief of the FPRI Bear Market Brief and a Russia and Ukraine analyst at Geoquant.

Putin refocusing at home in 2018

Foreign policy is losing appeal as a distraction from needed domestic reforms.

Vladimir Putin seated at microphone during meeting

Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in December 2017. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov / Getty Images

Putin has delayed his yearly address to the Federal Assembly (Russia&#x27;s equivalent of the State of the Union) until later in February — ostensibly to boost intrigue surrounding the election. Reports suggest he will use the speech to lay out the agenda for his presumptive next term, one that will feature potentially painful reforms such as tax increases or a higher retirement age, alongside popular spending increases on education and healthcare.Why it matters: Due to years of economic contraction and stagnation, Russians are increasingly demanding measures to improve their living standards. Over Putin&#x27;s last term, Russia&#x27;s foreign policy was trumpeted at home largely in place of a real domestic agenda, with &quot;making Russia great again&quot; sufficient to garner votes.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is all but guaranteed to win Russia's presidential election on Sunday. Voter turnout, on the other hand, is less certain. The Kremlin has set a target of 70% to secure the appearance of Putin's legitimacy, but, according to recent polling by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center, no more than 67% of voters plan to show up. Should too few voters turn out, that might hand Putin margin of victory high enough to look illegitimate.

Why it matters: Putin isn't just looking ahead to his next term — he's looking at his own political future. He will need a resounding and legitimate-looking win to jump-start the term,  as well as to plan for what happens beyond 2024 — when, for now at least, he is again barred from remaining president.

With only a couple of days to go, here are some factors that might affect turnout:

Growing dissatisfaction in cities: Recent polling finds Putin's approval declining over 10% in Russia's largest cities. Although Putin has not drawn support there in past elections, his support in smaller cities — his traditional base — has fallen as well. 

Get out the vote operations: After a slow start, Putin is now campaigning. Meanwhile, local leaders have turned to a number of strategies to gin up enthusiasm at polling places, employing both carrots (festivals, prizes for polling organizers that draw more voters) and sticks (threats to job security).

October surprises in March: A public health crisis involving a landfill near Moscow, which drove more than 5,000 people to protest at the beginning of the month, may mobilize voters. Meanwhile, should the U.K. and other European states respond more aggressively to the attempted assassination last weekend of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal in England — though that hasn't happened just yet — the Kremlin may take it as an opportunity to rally Russians around the flag.

The bottom line: With the election effectively decided, turnout is the best barometer for Putin's support. The degree of "legitimacy" he pulls out will be critical for building political capital as he enters his next term. 

Fixed Russian election still has stakes for Putin

The apparent legitimacy of the election results will determine his political capital in a new term.

President Putin gives a speech while campaigning for re-election

President Putin. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov via Getty Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin is all but guaranteed to win Russia&#x27;s presidential election on Sunday. Voter turnout, on the other hand, is less certain. The Kremlin has set a target of 70% to secure the appearance of<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" Putin&#x27;s legitimacy" data-vars-click-url="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/12/06/yes-the-kremlin-is-worried-about-russias-own-presidential-elections/?utm_term=.cf40e5e195c5" data-vars-content-id="f3f0a419-7364-4057-b180-d251ba517b49" data-vars-headline="Fixed Russian election still has stakes for Putin" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/12/06/yes-the-kremlin-is-worried-about-russias-own-presidential-elections/?utm_term=.cf40e5e195c5" target="_blank"> Putin&#x27;s legitimacy</a>, but, according to recent polling by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center, no more than 67% of voters plan to show up. Should too few voters turn out, that might hand Putin margin of victory high enough to look illegitimate.Why it matters: Putin isn&#x27;t just looking ahead to his next term — he&#x27;s looking at his own political future. He will need a resounding and legitimate-looking win to jump-start the term, as well as to plan for what happens beyond 2024 — when, for now at least, he is again barred from remaining president.

Aaron Schwartzbaum

Stories

Putin's popularity comes back down to earth

Fixed Russian election still has stakes for Putin

Putin refocusing at home in 2018

Vladimir Putin has a turnout problem

To tell where Russia is headed, look to Putin's PM pick