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Hurricane Maria making landfall in Puerto Rico. Credit: NOAA

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to have below average activity, due in large part to the formation of an El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and cooler than average sea surface temperatures in key regions of the tropical Atlantic, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced Friday.

Why it matters: Hurricanes are nature's most powerful and costliest storms, and after an extraordinarily destructive hurricane season in 2017, the prospect of a below-average season is a welcome one for millions of coastal residents.

By the numbers: NOAA's forecasters increased the likelihood of a below-average Atlantic hurricane season to 60%, which is a significant jump from 25% in May, in an updated outlook issued Friday. The likelihood of a near-normal season has gone down, now sitting at 30%.

Meanwhile, the odds of an above-normal season has dropped from 35% in May to 10% on Friday.

  • For the entire hurricane season, which ends on Nov. 30, NOAA predicts a total of 9 to 13 named storms , of which 4-7 will become hurricanes, including zero to 2 major hurricanes of Category 3 intensity or greater.
  • So far, the season has seen four named storms, including two hurricanes, NOAA said in a statement.
  • An average six-month hurricane season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The details: A fledgling El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean could inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes by increasing the speed of upper level winds over the main area where such storms develop. Such wind shear, in which winds change in direction and/or speed with height, can tear tropical cyclones apart.

In addition, sea surface temperatures in the so-called "Main Development Region" of the tropical Atlantic are well below average for this time of year, which is another indicator of a below average season.

The other side: Even if the overall season turns out to be below average in the number of storms, it only takes one significant storm to cause billions worth of damage and claim lives. Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 storm that hit South Florida in August 1992, is an example of this, since it hit in a below average season.

What we're watching: The nascent El Niño is looking even more likely than it did a few months ago. On Friday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated its forecast to a nearly 70% likelihood of it beginning before the hurricane season ends on Nov. 30. This would have implications for global average surface temperatures and worldwide weather patterns, beyond just the hurricane season.

Go deeper

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Despite U.S. envoy's visit, Israel not ready for de-escalation in Gaza

Rockets are fired from Gaza and intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome aerial defense system. Photo: Fatima Shbair/Getty Images

With U.S. envoy Hady Amr set to arrive in Israel on Friday for de-escalation talks with Israeli, Palestinian and UN officials, Israeli officials are concerned the U.S. intervention will lead to increased pressure to stop their military operation.

Driving the news: Fighting continued overnight, with the Israeli military massing forces along the frontier with the Gaza Strip and briefing reporters about ground forces entering the fight. Anticipating a ground invasion, Hamas sent its elite forces to their defensive tunnels. The Israeli forces instead began to bomb those tunnels and did not cross into Gaza, Israeli officials say.

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Young people demand vaccination requirements for reopening

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Three-quarters of people between 18-29 say vaccination should be required to return to campus or work, according to new Generation Lab/Axios polling, and 37% would refuse to come back unless those conditions are in place.

Why it matters: Young workers have put pressure on CEOs to take action on social and political issues and have plenty of capital to exert it on reopening policy.

Internet prices kick off Washington brawl

Shoshana Gordon/Axios

President Biden's promise to cut the price of Americans' internet bills has provoked a fierce lobbying campaign by cable and telecom companies to prove that the cost of broadband has already dropped.

Why it matters: Internet providers are desperate to fend off any move to regulate the prices they charge, while the government is increasingly viewing connectivity as an essential service.