Data: Atlanta Fed; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker estimates that real GDP growth in the second quarter will decline by -52.8%.

What they're saying: That estimate is down from -51.2% on May 29 and -40.4% on May 28.

Why it matters: Recent economic reports have shown slightly improving numbers, but the Atlanta Fed's model suggests the overall trend is projecting a worse quarter than most economists had as even their worst-case scenario only weeks ago.

  • The 10 percentage point decline from last week's estimates is based on Monday's ISM report on business and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

By the numbers: Expectations for real personal consumption expenditures declined from -56.5% to -58.1% and expectations for real gross private domestic investment decreased from -61.5% to -62.6%, the Atlanta Fed noted.

What's next: Today's data will be closely watched with the release of IHS Markit and ISM's nonmanufacturing indexes for May and the ADP private payrolls report potentially offering some good news for investors.

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Data: Google; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

President Trump built his political brand by stoking the nation's culture wars, but search data is showing us how much harder it's been for him to replicate that success while running against another white man in his 70s — and while there's a coronavirus pandemic.

The big picture: Google Trends data shows Trump's "Sleepy Joe" name-calling isn't generating nearly the buzz "Crooked Hillary" (or "Little Marco") did in 2016. Base voters who relished doubting President Obama's birth certificate aren't questioning Biden's.

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15 states broke single-day coronavirus records this week

Data: Compiled from state health departments by Axios; Map: Danielle Alberti/Axios

At least 15 states broke their single-day novel coronavirus infection records this week, according to state health department data reviewed by Axios.

The big picture: The number of coronavirus cases increased in the vast majority of states over the last week, and decreased in only two states plus the District of Columbia, Axios' Andrew Withershoop and Caitlin Owens report.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3 p.m. ET: 11,143,945 — Total deaths: 527,681 — Total recoveries — 6,004,593Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 p.m. ET: 2,818,588 — Total deaths: 129,584 — Total recoveries: 883,561 — Total tested: 34,213,497Map.
  3. States: Photos of America's pandemic July 4 ICU beds in Arizona's hot spot reach near capacity.
  4. Public health: U.S. coronavirus infections hit record highs for 3 straight days.
  5. Politics: Trump extends PPP application deadlineKimberly Guilfoyle tests positive.
  6. World: Mexican leaders call for tighter border control as infections rise in U.S.
  7. Sports: 31 MLB players test positive as workouts resume.
  8. 1 📽 thing: Drive-in movie theaters are making a comeback.