Nov 7, 2017

Another House Republican announces retirement

Neal Rothschild

Carolyn Kaster / AP

Rep. Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey is the latest in a series of House Republicans to announce he'll retire at the end of this term, he announced Tuesday. According to Nate Cohn of the New York Times, this is a big one for Democrats:

Wow. Probably the single most valuable retirement for Democrats left on the board. Can't name another seat that would go from safe Republican to toss up https://t.co/vwmwtgoTpK— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 7, 2017

There are now 12 Republicans departing in 2018 and just one Democrat. In addition, Jason Chaffetz resigned his seat in June, and his replacement is being elected Tuesday.

  • Outlier check 1: According to Brookings, the average terms served for retiring members has hovered around 8 over the last 40 years, but dropped to 5 in the 2016 cycle. The average among these 12 Republicans is 9.5.
  • Outlier check 2: The number to watch for to help determine if this trend is notable is 23. That's the average number of retiring representatives over the last five election cycles. Over that time, there has been more attrition from Republicans than from Democrats. However, the 12-to-1 ratio of retiring Republicans to Democrats is a considerable disparity.
A look at the 12 departing Republicans...

Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey:

  • Date announced: Nov. 7
  • Terms: 12
  • 2016 margin of victory: 22 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 5 points

Lamar Smith of Texas:

  • Date announced: Nov. 2
  • Terms: 15
  • 2016 margin of victory: 31 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 10 points

Jeb Hensarling of Texas:

  • Date announced: Oct. 31
  • Terms: 8
  • 2016 margin of victory: 61 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 28 points

Pat Tiberi of Ohio:

  • Date announced: Oct. 19
  • Terms: 9
  • 2016 margin of victory: 37 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 11 points

Tim Murphy of Pennsylvania (resigned in scandal):

  • Date announced: Oct. 5
  • Terms: 7 full terms
  • 2016 margin of victory: uncontested
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 20 points

Dave Trott of Michigan:

  • Date announced: Sept. 11
  • Terms: 2
  • 2016 margin of victory: 13 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 5 points

Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania:

  • Date announced: Sept. 7
  • Terms: 7
  • 2016 margin of victory: 20 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 8 points

Dave Reichert of Washington:

  • Date announced: Sept. 6
  • Terms: 7
  • 2016 margin of victory: 20 points
  • 2016 presidential: Clinton by 3 points

John J. Duncan Jr. of Tennessee:

  • Date announced: July 31
  • Terms: 15 full terms
  • 2016 margin of victory: 51 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 35 points

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida:

  • Date announced: April 30
  • Terms: 14 full terms
  • 2016 margin of victory: 10 points
  • 2016 presidential: Clinton by 20 points

Lynn Jenkins of Kansas:

  • Date announced: Jan. 25
  • Terms: 5
  • 2016 margin of victory: 28 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 19 points

Sam Johnson of Texas:

  • Date announced: Jan. 6
  • Terms: 13 full terms
  • 2016 margin of victory: 27 points
  • 2016 presidential: Trump by 14 points

Go deeper

Jim VandeHei, Margaret Talev

The cost of going after Bloomberg

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Here's the growing dilemma for 2020 Democrats vying for a one-on-one showdown with frontrunner Bernie Sanders: Do they have the guts — and the money — to first stop Mike Bloomberg?

Why it matters: Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren all must weigh the costs of punching Bloomberg where he looks most vulnerable: stop-and-frisk, charges of sexism, billionaire entitlement. The more zealous the attacks, the greater the risk he turns his campaign ATM against them.

Go deeperArrow38 mins ago - Politics & Policy
Courtenay Brown, Danielle Alberti

How Trump’s economy stacks up

Source: "Presidents and US Economy", Trump figures through 2019 courtesy of Alan Blinder; Note: Data shows real GDP and Q1 growth in each term is attributed to the previous president; Chart: Axios Visuals

Average economic growth under President Trump has outpaced the growth under Barack Obama, but not all of his recent predecessors.

Why it matters: GDP is the most comprehensive economic scorecard — and something presidents, especially Trump, use as an example of success. And it's especially relevant since Trump is running for re-election on his economic record.

Go deeperArrow1 hour ago - Economy & Business
Axios

Coronavirus cases rise as 14 American evacuees infected

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins, the CDC, and China's NHC; Note: China refers to mainland China and the Diamond Princess is the cruise ship offshore Yokohama, Japan. Map: Danielle Alberti/Axios

14 Americans evacuated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship tested positive for the novel coronavirus before being flown in a "specialist containment" on a plane repatriating U.S. citizens back home, the U.S. government said early Monday.

The big picture: COVID-19 has now killed at least 1,770 people and infected almost 70,000 others. Most cases and all but five of the deaths have occurred in mainland China. Taiwan confirmed its first death on Sunday, per multiple reports, in a 61-year-old man with underlying health conditions. Health officials were investigating how he became ill.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 2 hours ago - Health