Rep. Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey is the latest in a series of House Republicans to announce he'll retire at the end of this term, he announced Tuesday. According to Nate Cohn of the New York Times, this is a big one for Democrats:
Wow. Probably the single most valuable retirement for Democrats left on the board. Can't name another seat that would go from safe Republican to toss up https://t.co/vwmwtgoTpK— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 7, 2017
There are now 12 Republicans departing in 2018 and just one Democrat. In addition, Jason Chaffetz resigned his seat in June, and his replacement is being elected Tuesday.
Outlier check 1: According to Brookings, the average terms served for retiring members has hovered around 8 over the last 40 years, but dropped to 5 in the 2016 cycle. The average among these 12 Republicans is 9.5.
Outlier check 2: The number to watch for to help determine if this trend is notable is 23. That's the average number of retiring representatives over the last five election cycles. Over that time, there has been more attrition from Republicans than from Democrats. However, the 12-to-1 ratio of retiring Republicans to Democrats is a considerable disparity.
