Analysis: 15 million people could lose health coverage in GOP plan

Bob Herman
Mar 9

Featured

Analysis: 15 million people could lose health coverage in GOP plan

Susan Walsh / AP

We still don't know how much the Republican Obamacare replacement will cost or how it will affect health insurance coverage. The Congressional Budget Office is working on that, even as both House committees moved the bills forward. In the meantime, an analysis released Thursday by Loren Adler and Matthew Fiedler of the Brookings Institution said the CBO likely will find at least 15 million people will lose their coverage.

The key quote that explains the political problem: "Estimates could be higher, but it's is unlikely they will be significantly lower."

The 15 million number is based on the repeal of the individual mandate, lost employer coverage due to the mandate and cuts to Medicaid. The unknown effects of new tax credits, repealing the Medicaid expansion and installing a system that caps federal Medicaid payments for every person could drive that uninsured figure higher.

Shannon Vavra
3 hrs ago

Featured

Puerto Rico is without power and low on supplies

A man looks at the horizon early in the morning after the passing of Hurricane Maria, in Yabucoa, Puerto Rico. Photo: Carlos Giusti / AP

While national and presidential attention has been directed at NFL protests, Puerto Rico remains without power and short on supplies after being slammed by Hurricanes Irma and Maria. Officials are having difficulty even communicating with outlying towns that were devastated by the storm, and the humanitarian crisis is growing.

From Governor Ricardo Rosselló: "We are U.S. citizens that just a few weeks ago went to the aid of other U.S. citizens even as we're going through our fiscal downturn and as we were hit by another storm…Now, we've been essentially devastated. Complete destruction of the power infrastructure, severe destruction of the housing infrastructure, food and water are needed. My petition is that we were there once for our brothers and sisters, our other U.S. citizens, now it's time that U.S. citizens in Puerto Rico are taken care of adequately, properly."

How bad it is ... words

From Manati mayor Jose Sanchez Gonzalez: "Hysteria is starting to spread. The hospital is about to collapse. It's at capacity," he said, crying. "We need someone to help us immediately."

The scale of the crisis

Government officials said Sunday a dam on the Western part of the island "will collapse at any time." Eastern areas, which were hit by the eye of the storm, could take years to recover.
Officials estimate it could take up to 6 months to restore power to the whole island.
Federal agencies have cleared the Port of San Juan for daytime operations, but accessing Puerto Rico is pretty difficult right now — airports and harbors are severely damaged and the whole island remains out of power. 11 ships have delivered 1.6 million gallons of water, 23,000 cots, dozens of generators and food, per the AP. Many hospital patients are being flown to the U.S. mainland for treatment.
The death toll is at least 10 in Puerto Rico, and 31 if you include other Caribbean islands, per the AP.
1,360 of the island's 1,600 cell towers are down. 85% of phone and internet cables were knocked out.

Personal experiences

When locals see outsiders, the first thing they ask is "Are you FEMA?" per The Washington Post.
"Nothing's working, we don't hear from anyone…We feel abandoned," Toa Baja resident Johanna Ortega told USAToday.
Food at local grocery stores is "VERY LIMITED," San Juan resident Claudia Batista messaged Axios. Batista described the situation in San Juan as "desperate times," saying because of "all the material loss, people are losing control and patience and are stealing in other homes and assaulting people on the streets."
Some local responders in Juncos cleared streets with machetes since the town doesn't have enough chain saws. People are riding bikes and walking for miles to get to gas stations

What FEMA is doing

FEMA teams were in Puerto Rico earlier this month following Hurricane Irma, and as soon as Hurricane Maria's winds died down they launched search-and-rescue missions, per USAToday.
All of the 28 task force teams around the U.S. have been recruited to help, which is rare, per Karl Lee, a FEMA Incident Support Team member.
FEMA responders are using a San Juan hotel as a command center.
4,000 U.S. Army Reserve members have also been deployed to the island. The Army Corps of Engineers dispatched the 249th Engineer Battalion, per CNN.

What Trump has said

Trump declared a major disaster in Puerto Rico and said all of the U.S. government is behind the relief efforts. White House adviser Tom Bossert and FEMA's chief are heading to Puerto Rico Monday, although a trip from Trump isn't expected for a while, per CNN.

Rosselló thanked Trump on Monday for having federal emergency assistance provided, per the AP, noting FEMA has done a "phenomenal job."

Trump's most recent tweets about Puerto Rico, from last week:

Take a look

How to help

Unidos por Puerto Rico, steered by the First Lady of Puerto Rico
OneAmericaAppeal.org, which was launched along with Unidos por Puerto Rico, with all five of the living former U.S. presidents, is now extending its donations to include Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Hispanic Federation
New York state's relief efforts include sites for dropping of supplies, volunteering, or donating
Check out this Google spreadsheet of donation sites in multiple states
Global Giving
Salvation Army
UNICEF

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Jonathan Swan
3 hrs ago

Featured

Trump expected to dramatically lower refugee intake

Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta / AP

The Trump administration is expected to notify Congress this week that it's dramatically lowering the number of refugees admitted into the United States over the next fiscal year.

Three officials close to the process say the consensus among the Department of Homeland Security and the State Department is to accept somewhere in the range of 40,000 refugees — far fewer than the 110,000 refugees President Obama said he wanted to welcome into the U.S. in fiscal year 2017 and a reduction from the 50,000 cap that Trump set earlier this year.

Keep reading ... words

What's next: Trump needs to make his final decision on the refugee intake before October 1 (the deadline for the annual decision on refugee admissions required by the Refugee Act of 1980.) A White House official told me that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Acting Homeland Security Secretary Elaine Duke will head to Capitol Hill on Wednesday to consult Congress, before a final decision is made.

Behind-the-scenes

State Department: Two sources close to the process say that Tillerson signed off on a State Department memo recommending that Trump accept 45,000 refugees in the next fiscal year.

A number of State career officials are unhappy and believe the U.S. should accept a significantly higher number, given the scale of suffering in countries like Iraq and Syria. A senior source at the State Department said many career employees believe the White House is walking away from America's global leadership and harming Tillerson's ability to conduct diplomacy by so dramatically reducing the intake of refugees.
A source close to Tillerson said the Secretary of State didn't think now was the time for a "philosophical argument about American diplomacy." The source said Tillerson was "practical" and agreed with the consensus view within the Trump administration that the administration can help exponentially more people by investing in refugee settlement near Iraq and Syria. "It isn't about making America the permanent destination; it's about helping to stabilize these places on the ground," the source said. "You can't stabilize a community by moving to Albany."

Homeland Security: Sources close to the refugee decision process told me the Department of Homeland Security recommended a refugee intake number slightly lower than Tillerson's 45,000.

White House: Trump's top policy adviser Stephen Miller has advocated for a far lower intake of 20,000 refugees, according to sources close to the process. But other senior administration officials thought Miller's desires were unrealistic and would diminish America's standing with allies.

Per a WH official: "The president's strategy on refugees is guided first and foremost by the safety and security of the American people. The United States can also help a larger number of refugees by resettling them in their home region and enabling their eventual safe return home."

Trump's final decision will be the culmination of an interagency decision-making process that's run far more smoothly than the administration's early bumbling efforts to roll out the travel ban and other controversial policies.

Bottom line: Trump's refugee decision reflects, as much as anything, how starkly different his worldview is from Obama's. The previous administration wanted to expand the refugee intake amid the horrors in Syria and Iraq; and top officials viewed the program as core to America's leadership and moral standing in the world. The Trump administration officials involved in the process — that I've spoken to — regard an argument over the U.S. intake of refugees as relatively insignificant, with one telling me it "sounds lovely" to take several thousand more, but doesn't put a dent in the larger problem.

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Caitlin Owens
14 mins ago

Featured

Collins will oppose Senate health care bill

Sen. Susan Collins said she opposes the Senate's health care plan. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty, File)

Sen. Susan Collins officially said she will oppose the Senate's latest bill to repeal parts of the Affordable Care Act — yet another nail in the coffin for a bill that's moving further away from the 50 votes it would need to pass.

Why it matters: It would only take three "no" votes to kill the bill. And Collins' opposition makes it a total of four Republicans who say they won't vote for the bill — two moderates (Collins and Sen. John McCain) and two conservatives (Sens. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz).

Shane Savitsky
20 mins ago

Featured

Report: 'Iranian missile test' Trump tweeted about never happened

Missiles are on display in Tehran on Sunday during the country's annual Defense Week. Photo: Vahid Salemi / AP

On Friday, Iran claimed to have tested a new medium-range ballistic missile capable of striking Israel with multiple warheads — but, according to Fox News, that missile launch never actually took place. Video footage purporting to show the launch was actually from a failed test back in January.

Why it matters: The world is waiting to hear President Trump's decision — he claimed to have made up his mind last week — on whether or not to stay in the Iran nuclear deal. It's significant that Trump used the "launch" to again decry the deal, tweeting on Saturday: "Not much of an agreement we have!"

Stef W. Kight
55 mins ago

Featured

Irma captured America's attention more than other storms

It's been a busy hurricane season, with three powerful hurricanes hitting and one just missing U.S. territories. Here's when and how often Americans' searched Google each of them.

Data: Google Trends; Chart: Lazaro Gamio / Axios

Why it matters: Irma received the most attention, according to Google, likely due to reports it'd be the most powerful hurricane ever to hit the U.S. Meanwhile, Puerto Rico has been devastated by Hurricane Maria, but interest from the U.S. is substantially less than during both Harvey and Irma.

Note: This search data does not include Puerto Rico. Puerto Ricans were highly interested in both Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Maria, with the least interest in Harvey.

Erica Pandey
3 hrs ago

Featured

Target to raise minimum wage to $11 per hour, $15 by 2020

Elise Amendola / AP

Target has announced it will raise its minimum wage from $10 per hour to $11 across all U.S. stores, CNBC reports. The changes will begin in October and are part of Target's $7 billion re-investment in the company. Target has promised an hourly minimum wage of $15 by 2020.

The context: Target has been in a wage war with Wal-mart, which raised base hourly pay to $10 in 2016. The federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour, and it has not increased since 2009.

Alayna Treene
3 hrs ago

Featured

White House: "We've not declared war on North Korea"

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders delivers a news briefing at the White House. Photo: Carolyn Kaster / AP

Sarah Sanders said Monday that the White House has "not declared war on North Korea," as the country's foreign minister claimed this morning. Sanders added that "frankly, the suggestion of that is absurd."

Briefing highlights ... words

On criticism of Trump's NFL comments: "This isn't about the president being against anyone, but about millions of Americans being for something." Later Sanders said that if NFL players are protesting police brutality, then "they should protest the officers on the field," not the flag.
Did Trump go too far in calling some players SOB's that should be fired? "It's always appropriate for the president to defend our flag, defend our national anthem."
On Trump tweeting about NFL but not Puerto Rico: "He's emphasizing something that should be unifying... Celebrating and promoting patriotism in our country is something that should bring everyone together."
Puerto Rico recovery efforts: Federal response to Hurricane Maria is "anything but slow," said Sanders. Trump sent FEMA Administrator Brock Long, Homeland Security Advisor Tom Bossert to Puerto Rico today.

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Erica Pandey
4 hrs ago

Featured

NFL won't punish players who didn't take field for national anthem

At a Sunday game, the Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans are absent from the sidelines during the national anthem. Photo: Mark Zaleski / AP

Despite a rule in the NFL game operations manual that requires players to be on the sidelines when the anthem is played, league spokesman Joe Lockhart said, "There will be no discipline handed down this week for anyone who was not there [during the playing of the national anthem]."

Why it matters: President Trump used Twitter to urge the NFL to discipline its players, but the league, along with several franchise owners and coaches, is standing behind the players who chose to protest the anthem.

Dave Lawler
4 hrs ago

Featured

Supreme Court cancels hearing on Trump's travel ban

Justice Neil Gorsuch shakes hands with Chief Justice John Roberts outside the U.S. Supreme Court. Photo: J. Scott Applewhite / AP

The Supreme Court will no longer hold a hearing on October 10 on the constitutionality of President Trump's travel ban, now that the ban has been replaced by an updated order barring or restricting travel from 8 countries.

Where things stand: The court has not cancelled the case altogether, but will allow both sides to file fresh briefs on Trump's new order by October 5. But, per the NYT's Adam Liptak, "by canceling the arguments for now, the court signaled that it may never decide the case."

Erica Pandey
4 hrs ago

Featured

Huffington: Brands like Uber can no longer "hide behind" ad campaigns

Arianna Huffington sits on Uber's board of directors. Photo: Charles Sykes / Invision via AP

Arianna Huffington, who co-founded the Huffington Post and is an Uber board member, reflected on Uber's culture crisis at Fortune and TIME's CEO Initiative, saying "the days when brands could hide behind expensive advertising campaigns are gone." Today, private company memos and comments at board meetings quickly become public — a trend that contributed to the development of the Uber crisis over the summer, Huffington said.

The gritty details: Uber's hyper-growth came at the cost of "worshipping top performers," Huffington said. "If you were a top performer, a lot was forgiven ... I named them 'brilliant jerks.'"

GOP senators propose conservative alternative to Dream Act

From L-R, Tillis, Lankford, Hatch. Photo: Screengrab via CSPAN

GOP Sens. Thom Tillis and James Lankford, joined by Sen. Orrin Hatch, announced the Succeed Act, a conservative alternative to the Dream Act that would give Dreamers a pathway to citizenship with a host of Republican-friendly restrictions.

Why it matters: President Trump has expressed a desire to allow Dreamers to stay in the United States, indicating to Democratic leaders Sen. Chuck Schumer and Rep. Nancy Pelosi that he'd support the Dream Act — provided that it came packaged with increased border security measures. The Tilis-Lankford plan might give Republicans another path forward on immigration.

Keep reading ... words

Lankford said Trump called him late at night to discuss his ideas on the issues, while Tillis said the "far-right and the far-left" don't seem interested in reaching a permanent solution. Hatch said he wanted to pass something that would recognize the "positive contributions" Dreamers were making in U.S. society.

The model:

Eligibility would be extended to undocumented immigrants who entered the U.S. under the age of 16 and have been in the country since DACA's inception in June 2012.
Young immigrants need to pass a criminal background check and receive a high school diploma, and pay off any back taxes in order to gain "conditional permanent residence," a status they'll have to maintain for 10 years via a college education, steady employment, or military service before they can obtain a green card.
Once the young immigrants get a green card, they can apply for citizenship after 5 years.

The big restriction: Young immigrants wouldn't be able to sponsor their parents or family members for permanent residency until they became citizens, essentially creating a 15-year window to prevent "chain migration."

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Stef W. Kight
5 hrs ago

Featured

Report: Hill aide stock trades pose conflicts of interest

An aide whispers to Sen. Dick Durbin as the Senate Judiciary Committee questions top Obama administration officials about the National Security Agency's surveillance programs. Photo: J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Some senior Congressional aides buy and sell stocks that could have a conflict of interest with their work, according to reporting by Politico. Since May 2015, around 450 aides have bought or sold stock of more than $1K value. There are probably more instances, as aides who make less than $124,406 are not required to report their stock purchases.

Why it matters: It's the aides who often have the more hands-on role in writing the details of legislation that impacts these companies, not the members. While the executive branch is far more strict about violating federal conflict-of-interest laws, and actual members of Congress might face much tougher scrutiny, Congress refuses to crack down on rules about stock trading.

Keep reading ... words

Example: In the nine days between the drug company Mylan being accused by Senate Judiciary Committee leaders of violating Medicaid laws and reaching a multi-million dollar settlement, a Senate Judiciary Committee aide sold $4,004-$60,000 worth of stock in the company, according to Politico.

Throwback: Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price faced criticism during his Senate hearing for buying stocks in a small biotech company after sitting in health care committees with influence on legislation that would effect the company. Shortly after Price's harsh questioning, several Congressman also invested in the same biotech company.