Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa Bay news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Charlotte news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!
Data: William H Frey analysis of US decennial censuses 2010-2010, 2020 Census Demographic Analysis released December 15, 2020; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Even in an unlikely "high growth rate" scenario, America's population has grown at the slowest rate since at least the 1930s, according to recent Census Bureau projections for the last decade.

Why it matters: America is aging. There is a growing number of people out of the workforce, and a relatively smaller number of people trying to support them — a situation that could cripple programs like Social Security and slow economic growth.

  • In the lowest growth rate scenario, the U.S. could see the slowest 10-year increase in its population since at least the 1790s, according to analysis by Brookings Institution demographer William Frey.
  • Other new Census data found that between July 2019 and July 2020, the nation grew at the lowest yearly rate since at least 1900, largely because of the pandemic.

Americans aren't having as many babies as they used to, mirroring a trend in many developed countries.

  • The number of Americans under age 25 has been stagnant this decade in all three of the Census' projected scenarios, according to Frey's analysis.
  • The population under age 5 declined in all three scenarios.

Between the lines: The U.S. population hasn't aged as much as other nations like Japan — which has seen its overall population decline — largely because of strong immigration. But now immigration has been declining as well.

  • Census data from last year found that the immigrant population over the last decade has grown less than in any decade since the 1970s.
  • Even so, immigration has been projected to become the primary driver of population growth in this decade, given the low birth rates and the expected increase in death rates as the Boomer generation ages. It has already prevented population decline in some cities.

What to watch: The new Census data does not fully account for the near shutdown of the immigration system or the deaths caused by the coronavirus this year.

  • "We're not really seeing in this yet the true impact of COVID on population change," Frey said. "If you had to do this for another year afterwards, we would see probably even lower annual growth."

About the data: The population analysis by the Census Bureau is done every 10 years and used to compare to the official Census count, which we will get sometime early this year.

Go deeper

Bryan Walsh, author of Future
20 hours ago - Politics & Policy

President Biden faces a deeply broken America

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

As President Biden begins his term in office today, he'll be tasked with leading a country beset with deep, long-term problems.

Why it matters: Though the pandemic has made them worse, existential challenges around inequality, social alienation and political division in the U.S. were in place well before SARS-CoV-2 arrived on American shores. The country's future will depend in large part on whether the choices made over the next four years can flatten the curve of American decline.

44 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Stalemate over filibuster freezes Congress

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell's inability to quickly strike a deal on a power-sharing agreement in the new 50-50 Congress is slowing down everything from the confirmation of President Biden's nominees to Donald Trump's impeachment trial.

Why it matters: Whatever final stance Schumer takes on the stalemate, which largely comes down to Democrats wanting to use the legislative filibuster as leverage over Republicans, will be a signal of the level of hardball we should expect Democrats to play with Republicans in the new Senate.

Dave Lawler, author of World
1 hour ago - World

Biden opts for five-year extension of New START nuclear treaty with Russia

Putin at a military parade. Photo: Valya Egorshin/NurPhoto via Getty

President Biden will seek a five-year extension of the New START nuclear arms control pact with Russia before it expires on Feb. 5, senior officials told the Washington Post.

Why it matters: The 2010 treaty is the last remaining constraint on the arsenals of the world's two nuclear superpowers, limiting the number of deployed nuclear warheads and the bombers, missiles and submarines which can deliver them.