Illustration: Lazaro Gamio / Axios

The Affordable Care Act's fifth open enrollment period is now under way.

The bottom line: This will likely be the worst ACA sign-up window yet, in terms of total enrollment — and also the weirdest. It's been weird to see a federal department constantly attacking a program it oversees; it'll will be weird to watch it oversee that program anyway. The politics of health care have also been totally unsettled all year long, and that has produced a surprising set of twists and turns on the ground.

Even though premiums are much higher across the board, more consumers than ever before — about 80% of enrollees, according to HHS — will be able to find a plan for less than $75 per month.In many cases, a more comprehensive "gold" plan will now cost less each month than a middle-of-the-road "silver" plan.This is all a byproduct of President Trump's decision to quit paying the ACA's cost-sharing subsidies — a benefit that, in keeping with the weirdness of this year, consumers will actually continue to receive.Here's what else to expect, today and over the next six weeks:The website will probably work: Despite the Trump administration's reticence to carry out much of the ACA, testing for HealthCare.gov proceeded as usual during September and October.Kelley Turek, who handles policy issues related to the exchanges for America's Health Insurance Plans, told me she hasn't heard any complaints about the technical side of things.A spokesman for California's state-run exchange also said "we do not have concerns" about the pieces of the HealthCare.gov apparatus that interact with state-based marketplaces.The Health and Human Services Department has said it will take HealthCare.gov offline on all but one Sunday morning, for maintenance. Although Democrats cried foul, Turek said the practice is normal and shouldn't hurt enrollment.Overall enrollment will probably fall. No one is sure how big a drop-off to expect. In terms of the markets' stability, the mix of healthy and sick consumers is more important than the overall number of enrollees. But the two go hand-in-hand: the people who need insurance the most are the ones least likely to miss the enrollment window or let their coverage lapse.HHS says it will provide updates on the number of people signing up for coverage "throughout open enrollment," similar to past years, when it released weekly updates.The Trump administration is not looking for silver linings. As far as it's concerned, failure is success.Just yesterday, Trump's campaign arm released a new ad that says "Obamacare is broken," accuses Democrats of blocking a better plan, and promises "Trump will fix it." Much like Trump's repeated assertions that "Obamacare is dead," it's not the message you'd send if you wanted people to sign up.(Also, not to nitpick, but Senate Republican holdouts are the ones who killed all four Senate Republican health care bills this year.)

Go deeper

How "naked ballots" could upend mail-in voting in Pennsylvania

Trump signs in Olyphant, Penn. Photo: Eric Baradat/AFP via Getty Images

Pennsylvania's Supreme Court ordered state officials last week to throw out mail-in ballots submitted without a required inner "secrecy" envelope in November's election, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

The state of play: The decision went under the radar alongside the simultaneous decision to extend the time that mail-in ballots could be counted, but Philadelphia's top elections official warned state legislators this week that throwing out so-called "naked ballots" could bring "electoral chaos" to the state and cause "tens of thousands of votes" to be thrown out — potentially tipping the presidential election.

Commission releases topics for first presidential debate

Moderator Chris Wallace. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Fox News anchor Chris Wallace has selected what topics he'll cover while moderating the first presidential debate between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden next week.

What to watch: Topics for the Sept. 29 debate will include Trump and Biden's records, the Supreme Court, COVID-19, economic policy, racism and the integrity of the election, the Commission for Presidential Debates announced on Tuesday. Each topic will receive 15 minutes of conversation and will be presented in no particular order.

Fed chair warns economy will feel the weight of expired stimulus

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chair Jay Powell bump elbows before House hearing on Tuesday. Photo: Joshua Roberts/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday that the expiration of Congress' coronavirus stimulus will weigh on the U.S. economy.

Why it matters: Powell warned that the effects of dried-up benefits are a looming risk to the economy, even if the consequences aren't yet visible.

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