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AP Photo/Alex Brandon

The American Academy of Actuaries looked at the Senate's health care bill, and found a decidedly mixed bag. Some policies would probably help stabilize insurance markets, the group said, while others could cause enrollment to fall or costs to rise. The actuaries laid out their findings in an analysis they shared with Senate leaders, members of Congress and governors.

Here's what they said:

In the short term:

  • The bill would pay the Affordable Care Act insurer subsidies, create a short-term stabilization fund and impose a waiting period for people to get insurance — all of which would help stabilize markets and lower premiums.
  • But repealing the individual mandate could increase premiums and reduce enrollment.

In the long term:

  • Younger adults might be more likely to enroll because of changes in how much they pay compared to older adults, which is good for the risk pool.
  • But tying premium subsidies to skimpier plans, and repealing the individual mandate, would be bad for the risk pool.
  • The long-term stabilization fund could help if used correctly.
  • Allowing waivers of certain ACA regulations, including essential health benefits, could reduce premiums but also increase out-of-pocket costs and "erode" the law's pre-existing conditions protections.
  • Expanding access to association health plans could make it harder for expensive patients to get coverage.

Medicaid:

  • The bill's new structure of capped payments "could be regarded as rewarding states with richer programs" while locking states with leaner programs into lower funding levels. It also could "penalize states with the most efficient programs," as states with inefficient Medicaid programs would be able to find the most opportunities for savings.
  • If those capped federal payments increase each year at the same rate as general inflation, they likely will not keep pace with rising health care costs — so "it will likely be difficult for states to sustain or improve their current programs." Limiting eligibility or rolling back benefits might reduce states' Medicaid spending, but would transfer more costs to insurers, employers, providers and enrollees.
  • Phasing out funding for the ACA's Medicaid expansion could result in states dropping the expansion.

Go deeper

Ina Fried, author of Login
7 mins ago - Technology

Intel CEO sees making own chips as a matter of national security

Pat Gelsinger. Photo: Axios on HBO

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger is putting the pressure on the U.S. government to help subsidize chip manufacturing, insisting the current reliance on plants in Taiwan and Korea as "geopolitically unstable."

Why it matters: There is bipartisan support for funding the domestic semiconductor industry, but Congress has yet to sign the check. The Senate has passed the CHIPS Act that includes $52 billion in semiconductor investment, but it has yet to pass the House.

Updated 10 mins ago - World

17 U.S. and Canadian missionaries kidnapped in Haiti

Haitian soldiers guard the public prosecutor's office in Port-au-Prince this month. Photo: Richard Pierrin/AFP via Getty Images

Children are among a group of 17 Americans and a Canadian kidnapped in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, per a statement from Christian Aid Ministries Sunday.

The latest: "The group of 16 U.S citizens and one Canadian citizen includes five men, seven women, and five children," the Ohio-based group said. Haitian police inspector Frantz Champagne on Sunday identified the 400 Mawozo gang as the group responsible, in a statement to AP.

Ina Fried, author of Login
2 hours ago - Technology

Intel CEO wants to compete against Apple

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger hasn't given up on the idea of the Mac once again using Intel chips, but he acknowledges it will probably be years before he gets that chance.

  • In the meantime, he is focused on powering Windows machines that give Apple CEO Tim Cook a run for his money.

Why it matters: In getting pushed out of the Mac, Intel not only lost a customer but picked up a new rival.

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