ACA enrollment isn't as strong as you might think

What they're saying:

• We're two weeks into the ACA's fifth open enrollment period, and 1.5 million people have picked plans through HealthCare.gov.
• Two weeks into the last open enrollment period, just over 1 million people had picked plans through HealthCare.gov.
• That's the comparison folks have been making, and it does make enrollment seem stronger than last year.

Here's why the math is incomplete: Last year's open enrollment season was three months long. This one is half that, at six weeks. So, we're already a third of the way through this enrollment period.

• A third of the way through last year's enrollment season, more than 2.1 million people had signed up for coverage.
• The 1.5 million who have signed up so far this year doesn't look quite as good when you compare it that way — but that's the more accurate comparison, Avalere's Caroline Pearson says.
• By that measure, enrollment definitely isn't moving faster than last year — in fact, it's about 25% weaker.
• Twice as many people need to sign up each week to end up with the same totals when all is said and done. And that's not happening.

Yes, but: As Pearson notes, it's hard to make a direct comparison because there tends to be a surge at the end of the enrollment period. So it's hard to map out a clean trend line.

Still, given that the pace of sign-ups is already slipping, this year's last-minute surge would have to be enormous to close the gap. And it's hard to have an enormous surge without any official marketing or outreach encouraging people to sign up.