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Today near the central lawn at the University of Virginia. Photo: Max Patten

Last week, we wrote about a reported surge in youth voting in U.S. battleground state primaries — at least in part due to the "Parkland effect," a result of the registration campaign by high school students seeking stricter gun laws.

Driving the news: How energized voters aged 18–29 are is a major preoccupation. If they turn out on Nov. 6 in larger numbers than usual, they could be decisive in close races.

  • For an early snapshot of the landscape, Max Patten, a freshman at the University of Virginia, did a survey for Axios on the campus' central lawn on Sept. 25, National Voter Registration Day.
  • The location is important: Virginia is a key battleground state, and Charlottesville — the scene of a deadly August 2017 march by white supremacists — is a major fault line in the divided nation.
  • It's also in a congressional district that could flip: President Trump won the district by 5 points in 2016, but Real Clear Politics rates it a toss-up.

Patten writes of his thinking prior to the survey: UVA "is known for a strong emphasis on tradition and conservative values. ... Will students here be likely voters in midterms, and will they even vote left?"

Riley Creamer, secretary of College Republicans in Virginia, told Patten in an email that “most newly registered voters will be Democrats.”

By the numbers: What Patten actually found:

  • 28 of 31 students surveyed were registered to vote.
  • 21 — 75% of those registered — said they will probably vote Nov. 6.
  • In terms of leanings, 16 of 31 students — just over half — identified as Democrats, and all but one said they would probably vote. Just four said they were Republican. The eight who saw themselves as moderates or independents identified as the least likely to show up.

The bottom line: Patten said he expected to hear much of President Trump. But, he said, "[t]he students never (with the exception of 1) mentioned Trump by name but took views strongly contrary to him on the issues they mentioned."

Go deeper

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Harris breaks tie as Senate proceeds with lengthy debate on COVID relief bill

Photo: Oliver Contreras/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Senate on Thursday voted 51-50 — with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie — to proceed to debate on President Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus rescue package, likely setting up a final vote this weekend.

The state of play: Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) is forcing the Senate clerk to read the entire 628-page bill on the floor, a procedural move that will likely add 10 hours to the 20 hours already allotted for debate.

2 hours ago - World

Netanyahu campaigns against Biden's plan to save Iran deal

Netanyahu campaigns at a gym last month. Photo: Pool/AFP via Getty

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indirectly criticized the Biden administration for its intention to return to the Iran nuclear deal and told his supporters he was prepared to "stand against the entire world" to stop it.

Why it matters: This is a major change of tune for Netanyahu, who had been careful in his statements on the Iran deal and avoided publicly criticizing President Biden. The statement was part of Netanyahu's attempt to rally his base ahead of Israel's election on March 23.

Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Tech: "Fludemic" model accurately maps COVID hotspotsVirtual doctor's visits and digital health tools take off.
  2. Politics: Schumer says Senate will stay through weekend to vote on COVID relief — Republican governor of West Virginia says there's no plan to lift mask mandate.
  3. World: Canada vaccine panel recommends 4 months between doses.
  4. Business: Firms develop new ways to inoculate the public.
  5. Local: Ultra-rich Florida community got vaccinations in January.