National

What a deluged California means for farmworkers

Food security

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

Japan reclaims World Baseball Classic crown

Sports

Shifts in technology and media are changing the way we play, watch and understand sports. Business models are adapting and social change is forcing those in charge of teams and leagues to reconsider decades-old practices.

Remote work is starting to hit office rents

Real estate

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Homebuyers are putting less money down now, as bidding wars fade

Housing

Bond market swings are wildest since '08

Bond markets

The one UN climate report graphic you need to see

Climate change

DeSantis takes direct shot at Trump ahead of possible indictment

2024 presidential election

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Biden administration rejects "march-in" request to lower drug price

Drug price increases

The U.S. faces a range of health care flashpoints — unaffordable drugs, opioids, vaping — as we debate whether to adopt universal care. For now, the Affordable Care Act is the law of the land, but Republicans want to issue it a final death blow.

Health

Axios AM

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis took direct shots at the competence and character of Donald Trump — his likely rival for the '24 GOP nomination — after months of brushing off the former president's taunts.

Driving the news: "It's not important for me to be fighting with people on social media," DeSantis said during an interview for "Piers Morgan Uncensored" on the streaming service Fox Nation (via N.Y. Post).

Why it matters: DeSantis, who has dipped in polls amid Trump attacks, knew there was rising risk in remaining a sitting duck while his constituent Donald Trump rampages inside Mar-a-Lago.

"[T]he way we run the government, I think, is no daily drama," DeSantis told Morgan, who was visiting Florida from London.

Asked about conduct in a leader, DeSantis said: "You really want to look to people like our founding fathers ... [I]t's not saying that you don't ever make a mistake in your personal life. But I think: What type of character are you bringing?"

Much of this is subtly previewed in DeSantis' new book, "The Courage to Be Free." N.Y. Times columnist Carlos Lozada writes that DeSantis' case against Trump is scattered throughout the pages: "You just need to squint through a magnifying glass to find it."

"I placed loyalty to the cause over loyalty to me," DeSantis writes. "I had no desire to be flattered."

Reality check: DeSantis' is shifting gears just as many top Republicans — even some possible '24 rivals — are rallying to Trump ahead of his expected indictment.

Trump senior adviser Jason Miller told me DeSantis risks making himself "unpalatable for many looking to 2028 and beyond."

DeSantis appears to be trying to hit just hard enough to get under the skin of Trump, who's still calling him "Ron DeSanctimonious."

"I don't know how to spell the 'sanctimonious' one," the honors Yale grad told Piers Morgan. "I don't really know what it means ... [I]t's got a lot of vowels."

DeSantis told Morgan: "If I were to run ... I'm running against Biden."

Asked if he could beat Biden, the governor said: "I think so."

DeSantis, noting his strength with independents in his November re-election blowout, said: "[T]hat will be the same formula that we would take ... You can’t win with just Republicans."

"It's not important for me to be fighting with people on social media."

Donald Trump

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

Data: AppTopia; Note: Musically became TikTok in the U.S. on Aug. 2, 2018; Table: Axios Visuals

The U.S. government's threat to ban TikTok takes aim at what has become the most popular smartphone app in the country.

Why it matters: TikTok’s scale presents an enormous challenge to lawmakers trying to argue that the app’s national security threat outweighs the wishes of the millions of people and businesses that use the app.

The TikTok app has been downloaded more times in the U.S. than any other social app since it merged with U.S. lip-syncing app Musical.ly in August 2018, according to data from Apptopia.

The app is expected to generate more than $11 billion in U.S. ad revenue by 2024, far outpacing rivals like Snapchat, Pinterest and Twitter, per eMarketer. 

TikTok has also captured far more revenue than its competitors from in-app purchases, like coins that fans can use to tip their favorite creators, per Apptopia.

Driving the news: TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew plans to highlight the app’s growth in remarks prepared for his first-ever Congressional testimony on Thursday and released Tuesday night by the House committee he will address.

The company now counts more than 150 million monthly active users in the U.S., up from the 100 million users it first reported in 2020, executives confirmed to Axios.

Chew will also likely cite TikTok's role in supporting small businesses — a message that's also been used by tech rivals like Meta and Google when faced with regulatory pressure.

On Tuesday, Chew posted a TikTok video touting the app's reach, asserting that 5 million U.S. businesses, a majority of which are small or medium-sized, use TikTok to reach their customers.

Be smart: Tuesday's video is part of a broader consumer campaign that the short-video platform is beginning to push amid growing efforts by federal and state governments to limit or ban the app.

Last week, The Information reported that TikTok sent a message to some creators inviting them to join its top executives in Washington D.C. to support the company on Capitol Hill. 

This week, TikTok is trying to appeal to users directly in the app. "Some politicians have started to talk about banning TikTok," Chew said in the video posted Tuesday. "Now this could take TikTok away from all 150 million of you." 

He then directed users to leave comments about "what you want your elected representatives to know about what you love about TikTok."

Between the lines: TikTok has ramped up its marketing efforts in recent weeks, buying prominent ad space alongside many of D.C.'s most prominent political publications.

While most of TikTok's consumer messaging is focused on the ban risk facing the app, its Washington campaign has mostly focused on steps the company is taking to protect U.S. user data.

The big picture: Surveys indicate that the public remains mostly divided on whether the government should ban TikTok, but Republicans are much more likely to support a ban than Democrats. 

Lawmakers that oppose the ban argue the government needs to find more convincing proof that TikTok is a national security threat before forcing the app's Chinese parent ByteDance to sell to a U.S. company or face a ban. 

Lawmakers that support moves against TikTok say the app is a threat to U.S. user data privacy because of Chinese laws that require Chinese companies to share user data with China's government. 

Yes, but: Many lawmakers fall somewhat in the middle, arguing that lawmakers need to provide the public with more clarity about the actual national security risks.

"If you’re going to pull the plug on one of the largest digital communities in the country, you have to make a very clear case for why you’re doing that,” Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-N.C.), an avid TikTok user, told Bloomberg. 

What to watch: TikTok's U.S. tech rivals have been waiting in the wings, hoping their TikTok clones — like Reels on both Facebook and Instagram, YouTube Shorts, and Snapchat's Spotlight — could steal some market share from TikTok if it were  banned.

Those services have all launched in the wake of former president Trump's initial proposal to ban TikTok in 2020, and many have grown pretty sizable. 

Google said last month that YouTube Shorts has crossed 50 billion daily views. 

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said last month that Reels plays across Facebook and Instagram "have more than doubled over the last year," and people sharing Reels "has more than doubled on both apps in just the last 6 months."

TikTok’s popularity complicates possible U.S. ban

Any move to ban the app will face the reality that a vast number of Americans use it — a lot.

TikTok

Illustration of a finger about to delete the TikTok app

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

Walk into any bank branch in America, and you will likely see a sign that says, in big letters, "FDIC" — that would be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation — and "each depositor insured to at least $250,000."

The "at least" part is taking on new meaning as a banking crisis unfurls.

Why it matters: The Biden administration and financial regulators are sending every signal they can that no U.S. bank depositors — even those with more than the $250,000 federal insurance cap specified in federal law — will lose money in a bank failure.

They are trying to avert a cascading series of bank runs if people withdraw their money from smaller banks en masse.

But in the process, they are setting a precedent with potentially long-lasting consequences and thin legal authority.

Reality check: Technically speaking, there is no formal FDIC insurance for any deposits over $250,000 right now.

State of play: Ten days ago, the government invoked a "systemic risk exception" to guarantee all depositors in Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Officials have been not-so-subtly suggesting they won't allow large depositors in any banks to lose cash.

In a speech on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized that "similar actions" could be warranted if smaller banks face runs — opening the possibility of even community banks receiving implicit backing.

The goal of Yellen and other officials is to prevent financial contagion, where depositors withdraw cash from small and mid-sized banks and spark a freeze-up of credit across the economy.

The big picture: The cap on deposit insurance is a long-standing feature of U.S. banking regulation. To abandon it, especially without explicit Congressional authorization, opens up a world of issues.

It could create a "moral hazard" issue in which banks can take extreme risks without the discipline created by large depositors being wary of loss.

It raises questions about how the fees banks pay for FDIC insurance ought to evolve given that they have been set historically assuming larger deposits are not covered.

The bottom line: If you have large deposits at a U.S. bank, you are probably safe, and that in turn lowers the risk of a major crisis.

But the actions have opened a can of worms involving how the nation's banking system will work in the future.

Why everybody's talking about deposit insurance

Regulators are setting a precedent with potentially long-lasting consequences and thin legal authority.

Illustration of a hundred dollar bill with Benjamin Franklin holding an umbrella. 

Silicon Valley Bank

Markets

Axios Markets

Data: CBRE Econometric Advisors; Moody's; Chart: Axios Visuals

After a lag, the work-from-home revolution is finally starting to show up in the data for office building rental rates. 

State of play: Major markets like San Francisco and Manhattan — where long commute times seem to be driving the durability of the WFH lifestyle — have been hit the hardest. 

On the other hand, markets like Raleigh, Boston and Minneapolis — which have a higher concentration of health services, biotech and life science employment — seem to be faring well. (It's hard to do laboratory research from your home office.) 

What we're watching: Whether the issues in the office market worsen due to balance-sheet stress at regional banks.

Small and midsized banks (those not among the top 25) currently hold 67.2% of all outstanding commercial real estate loans, Axios recently reported.  

Not surprisingly, San Francisco landlords are taking the biggest hit.

Homebuyers aren't putting as much money down as they were at the height of the housing frenzy. 

What's happening: The typical U.S. homebuyer made a down payment of $42,000 in January, the lowest number in almost two years, per a report out from Redfin Wednesday morning, provided exclusively to Axios. 

The median downpayment is now 10% of the purchase price of the house, off its peak of 17.5%, (which amounted to $65,000), in May 2022.

State of play: High mortgage rates changed the calculus around down payments.

The rates crushed the market and drove a lot of people away, so there's less competition now. Buyers don't need to distinguish themselves from other bidders with big deposits. 

Background: When a lot of buyers are vying for a home, a chunky down payment is a sign to the seller that you're a safe bet compared to someone putting less money down, who could be stretching to afford a house — a sign that their financing could fall through.

Meanwhile, home prices haven't come down very much. They fell for the first time year over year this February and only by 0.2% from last year, according to a report out Tuesday from the National Association of Realtors.

Add higher rates to that equation and you get buyers facing higher monthly payments, who are more constrained in what they can afford to put down.

How they did it: Redfin analyzed country records in 40 of the most populous metropolitan areas in the U.S., looking at homebuyers who took out a mortgage.

The bottom line: First-time buyers who may not have been able to marshal the cash for a big down payment during the boom now have a shot at getting in the game. That's "one silver lining," as the Redfin report notes.

It's one side effect of cooling competition for homes.

LIne chart shows median down payment in January 2020 as 10%, dropping later that spring then rising to 15% in 2021 and even higher in 2022 and now falling back to 10% in January 2023

Republicans itching to probe the pandemic response are already struggling to separate vaccine-related questions that could yield lessons learned from ones that echo theories experts say are debunked by reams of data.

Why it matters: Americans' trust in public health institutions has been shattered over the last few years. Scientists warn that although there's a lot that can be learned from good-faith inquiries, there's nothing positive that can come from using public health to score political points. 

Driving the news: House Republicans have launched several lines of inquiry as part of their pandemic oversight, including into the vaccine approval process.

Experts say elected officials may not be the best equipped people to look back on vaccine policy decisions — particularly if they cross the line into misinformation or conspiracies.

"No major government initiative should ever be out of reach of oversight," said Jennifer Nuzzo, director of the Pandemic Center at Brown University School of Public Health. "However, there's ways to do it that are productive and result in positive change ... and then there are ways to do it that undermine not only health and safety in respect to COVID, but sow doubt in respect to all vaccines."

Lockdown policies, vaccine mandates and the role of infection-acquired immunity may be fair game, yet "without facts to stand on, to make groundless insinuations about the safety and efficacy of these vaccines is just irresponsible," she said.

Details: A recent letter to the FDA by Republicans on the House's Select Committee on the Coronavirus Pandemic questioned the Biden administration's approval process for COVID vaccines, alleging that "this effort may not have been to save lives but concernedly to provide cover for implementing and enforcing vaccine mandates around the country."

The letter also raised concerns with the administration's booster shot approval process and references the departure of two top FDA vaccine officials who, according to Endpoints, said they were leaving their positions at least in part because they felt like the FDA was being sidelined.

Scientists have raised wonky questions about booster policies and what the data best supports and say there's room for debate on the subject.

Yes, but: Some Republicans are veering well beyond questions of whether vaccine decisions were driven by politics or adequately backed by data. They're instead raising concerns about vaccine safety and whether the entire process was tainted by cover-ups. 

Possibly the highest profile among this group is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose administration has issued a health alert on mRNA vaccine safety that was strongly rebuked by FDA commissioner Robert Califf and CDC cirector Rochelle Walensky.

But DeSantis has gone even further. In a successful petition for a statewide grand jury, DeSantis questioned whether the vaccine makers — perhaps criminally — misrepresented information about the shots' safety and efficacy.

"An investigation is warranted to determine whether the pharmaceutical industry has engaged in fraudulent practices. The people of Florida deserve to know the truth," DeSantis wrote in the petition. 

Pfizer in response reiterated the scientific rigor of its process.

The big picture: Republicans have been emboldened by recent studies and reports that they say prove they were right all along about matters like the value of infection-derived immunity and the legitimacy of the theory that COVID originated with a lab leak. Scientists say the reality is more complicated, in large part because knowledge changed as more data became available.

Some Republicans say they're angry with what they view as public health officials' reluctance to update policy as new information came in, including vaccine policy. 

One commonly-cited sore spot is early-on messaging that the vaccines prevented transmission, which was used as a justification for mandates. At the time, clinical trial data suggested that Pfizer and Moderna's vaccines were extremely effective at preventing people from becoming sick with the virus, let alone being hospitalized and dying.

But several months after the vaccines became available, it became clear that breakthrough infections were more common than previously expected and that the vaccines' effectiveness faded over time. Paired with the rise of the omicron variant, it meant the vaccines have had a much lower real-world effectiveness than they did in the original clinical trials. 

This was a pivotal change that led to growing vaccine skepticism on the right. A recent survey by Surgo Health obtained by Vanity Fair found that Republicans are now 2.4 times more likely than Democrats or independents to believe that COVID-19 vaccines are unsafe.

The intrigue: Even supporters of vaccine oversight are wary of members who they think will take it too far. 

"There's a lot to dig in to that is worthy of investigation: Did FDA listen to its outside experts after the original vaccines or rush the updates through because of Biden political demands? But you can also go too far and question the underlying value of vaccines, which is leading to record lows in routine vaccinations for curable diseases like polio, MMR, and more," said a former GOP staff director who worked on COVID-related issues and recently left the Hill. 

The person added that he thinks Republicans are running the risk of having legitimate oversight get subsumed by misinformation and conspiracies. 

What they're saying: "Differences of opinion about who needs a booster when — that’s a straw man," said Cornell virologist John Moore. "That is not pandering to the anti-vaxxers. That is a legitimate discussion among public health officials."

"There's no decisions taken by humans that couldn't be revisited if your agenda is genuinely to find improvements for the future and if you have the appropriately qualified people doing it," he added. "But that's not what we're seeing here. We're seeing exercises in political point-scoring."

If the conversations lead to further mistrust of the COVID vaccines, "there is a risk that it has spillover effects to other vaccines that were not previously in question," Brown's Nuzzo said. 

The other side: Some Republicans argued that it's the Biden administration and public health officials who brought problems on themselves, including through bad policy.

"The way the CDC, the way Dr. Fauci handled this, it just exacerbated the anti-vaxxers. The last thing the anti-vaxxers want to be told is to shut up and take this shot, when all along this had not been studied long-term, we didn't know the long-term complications," said Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall said in an interview.

"If there's people who are skeptics that have a thorough hearing out, maybe that'll do something about the anti-vaccine sentiment," said Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. "But anti-vaccine sentiment is thoroughly embedded in our society.”

The bottom line: Many experts feel that the conversations emerging are not the helpful kind.

"It just feels like the intention of these hearings is just to set fire to things as opposed to trying to improve the functioning of government for future crises," Nuzzo said.

Republicans' COVID vaccine tightrope

Experts say there's a fine line between responsibly scrutinizing policy and fueling misinformation.

Coronavirus vaccines

Several major fast food and convenience store chains have recently announced a big push into electric vehicle (EV) charging, a trend that could accelerate efforts to expand the country's embryonic charging infrastructure.

Why it matters: Automakers are finally getting serious about electrification — yet many would-be EV buyers want more assurance they'll be able to find chargers when they need them.

Driving the news: Convenience store chain 7-Eleven recently launched its own EV fast-charging network, called 7Charge.

The network has chargers across Florida, Texas, Colorado and California so far, with plans to expand into Canada as well. (The company didn't respond to Axios' question about how many chargers it has installed.)

Users will be charged based on the energy they consume or the time they spend charging, depending on local regulations.

7Charge is compatible with a wide array of EVs — even Teslas, though they'll need an adapter.

Catch up quick: Fast food giant Subway last month announced long-term plans to build car-charging "oases" replete with green spaces, playgrounds and more. (Electrify America, one of the foremost charging-specific companies, has similar ambitions.)

More immediately, Subway is working with franchise owners to install stand-alone fast-chargers at various locations.

One major Taco Bell franchisee, meanwhile, is rolling out EV chargers at more than 100 of its California restaurants, USA Today reports.

The intrigue: In a press release, 7-Eleven touted its potential to address the charging gap.

"7-Eleven will have the ability to grow its network to match consumer demand and make EV charging available to neighborhoods that have, until now, lacked access," reads the release.

Be smart: Stores that install EV chargers will likely make a decent buck on charging fees, just like gas stations take a cut when you fill up your tank.

And, even with the latest fast-charging technology, topping off an EV takes time — turning drivers into a captive audience for food, drinks and other goodies as they juice up their cars.

Those bonus sales could give stores an extra incentive to add chargers.

Yes, but: Franchise chains have only so much control over what individual owners choose to do, potentially limiting their ability to become major players in EV charging overnight.

Still, if some owners make a handsome profit from EV charging, their peers may follow suit.

The bottom line: As the Biden administration pours billions into incentives for expanding the charging infrastructure, your favorite fast food chains are looking to take a big gulp of that cash spigot. 

The next hot fast food menu item? Electric car charging

7-Eleven is the latest chain to make a big push into EV charging.

Illustration of a hot dog with mustard made from an electric vehicle charger.

Electric vehicles

Generate

Axios Generate

An intensifying storm associated with a strong atmospheric river hit Central to Southern California with heavy rains, damaging winds and heavy mountain snowfall on Tuesday.

Of note: It's an unusually intense March storm for Central California, with satellite and radar imagery exhibiting swirling clouds around the center — almost resembling a tropical cyclone.

Data from the National Weather Service's Bay Area office indicates it's the strongest storm on record there in March, judging by atmospheric pressure. 

The pressure was much lower than had ever been recorded in the Bay Area for this month.

A screenshot of an NWS Bay Area tweet saying it has today recorded the lowest pressure ever for March during this storm

State of play: Nearly 179,000 customers were without power overnight with the Bay Area and Central Coast among the worst hit, per utility tracker poweroutage.us. The Santa Cruz hills were going dark in the afternoon with 80 mph winds.

The NWS' Los Angeles office issued a special weather statement on Tuesday evening due to the threat of landspouts, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and pea size hail, as it warned "torrential rain" was occurring that could trigger flooding.

"Gusty winds could knock down trees, tree limbs, and power lines, and blow around unsecured objects," the office warned.

The San Francisco Fire Department tweeted that it's responded "to numerous tree and wires down calls."

The Department of Public Works in San Diego County reported that a section of a key road in the area was closed due to flooding.

Meanwhile, satellite imagery on Tuesday afternoon showed the eye-like center of the storm making landfall near the San Francisco area, though the strongest winds were south of there.

What we're watching: High wind warnings and wind advisories were in effect throughout the state from San Francisco south to San Diego, with gusts up to 75 mph or greater possible in higher terrain.

Flood watches were in effect for central and southern California, where "[n]umerous flash floods are likely," the Weather Prediction Center said in a forecast discussion Tuesday.

Snowfall was expected to total up to 4 feet in the southern and central Sierra Nevada Mountains, putting strain on already buried infrastructure, given the record-breaking snowpack so far this year.

Of note: Departures to San Francisco International Airport were grounded due to wind from Tuesday afternoon into the evening, per the Federal Aviation Administration.

Context: With increasing ocean and air temperatures, climate change is adding even more moisture to atmospheric rivers, enabling them to dump higher rain and snow totals.

What we're watching: A very strong low pressure system that's offshore of San Francisco Bay will continue to bring high winds, heavy rain and heavy mountain snow for California and adjacent areas of the Southwest into Wednesday, per an NWS Weather Prediction Center forecast discussion Tuesday evening.

Precipitation was expected to change to snow over the Tejon Pass along Interstate-5, the NWS in Los Angeles warned.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

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Storm-hit California slammed by another historic atmospheric river

With increasing ocean and air temperatures, climate change is adding even more moisture to atmospheric rivers.

A Cal Fire crew trenches a flooded road in an attempt to lower the water in Allensworth, Tulare County on Mar. 20. Photo: Luis Sinco/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

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