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An AI boost for developing new materials

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Axios Science

AI tools and sophisticated robotics are speeding the quest to engineer urgently needed new materials. 

Driving the news: Google DeepMind researchers reported this week that a new AI model discovered more than 2.2 million hypothetical materials. 

Of the millions of structures the AI predicted, 381,000 were stable new materials, making them top candidates for scientists to attempt to make and test in a lab.

What's happening: The batteries, solar cells, semiconductor chips and other devices required for the next generations of the electrical grid, computing and other technologies hinge on the development of novel materials.

That's prompted countries worldwide, including the U.S., China and India, to invest heavily in materials science and engineering.

AI and materials science top the list of U.S. federal grants to industry over the past six years, according to a report published this week from Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology.

China now dominates the field of materials engineering by several key metrics, including publications, employment and degrees awarded in the field. 

Background: For the last century, new materials were discovered by taking existing ones known to be stable and substituting elements in the molecular structure to try to create a novel material.

That approach predicted about 48,000 stable inorganic crystal structures, more than half of them in the past decade.

But the process is expensive, time-consuming and, because it builds on known materials, is less likely to come up with radically different structures.

DeepMind achieved its feat by leveraging existing data from the Materials Project at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and other databases to train the AI, which then expanded the dataset as it learned.

How it works: DeepMind's tool — called Graph Networks for Materials Exploration (GNoME) — uses two deep learning models that represent the atoms and bonds in a molecule as a graph. 

One starts with known crystal structures and substitutes elements in place of others to create candidate structures. To try to move beyond what's known and come up with more diverse materials, the other model uses only a chemical formula or composition of a candidate material to predict if it is stable. 

The pool of candidates is filtered and the energy of each structure —a measurement of stability — is determined.

The most promising structures are evaluated with quantum mechanics simulations and that data is put back into the model again — a training loop known as active learning. 

The intrigue: GNoME appeared to learn some aspects of quantum mechanics and make predictions about structures it hadn't seen.

For example, the crystals the AI system was trained on consisted of only up to four elements, but it could discover five- and six-element materials, "which have proven to be difficult for human scientists," Ekin Dogus Cubuk, who leads the materials discovery team at DeepMind, said in a press briefing.

An AI being able to generalize beyond what it is trained on is important. "If we really want to use these models for discovery, we want to look where we haven't looked before," said Keith Butler, a professor of computational materials chemistry at University College London who wasn't involved in the research.

What's next: Predicting that a possible structure is stable doesn't guarantee it can actually be made. 

In another paper published this week, researchers at LBNL report results from a lab outfitted with robotics guided by AI to autonomously synthesize crystals.

The recipes for the materials were suggested by AI models that use natural language processing to analyze existing scientific papers and were then optimized as the AI system learned from its failures.

Over 17 days of 24/7 operation, the A-Lab synthesized 41 of 58 materials they attempted to make — or more than two materials per day. 

Yes, but: Many routes of synthesis may be difficult or expensive to automate because they involve intricate glassware, moving across a lab or other more complicated steps, Butler said. 

The A-Lab failed to make 17 materials, some of them because they needed to be heated to higher temperatures or the materials had to be ground better — standard steps in a lab that are outside the AI's current purview.

Ultimately, a material has to perform — conduct heat, be electronically insulating or carry out other functions.

But the synthesis of a material and testing of its properties are also costly and slow steps in the process of developing a new material.

The models, like many other AI systems, also don't explain how they arrived at their decisions, Butler said. 

"If you can ask the model, 'What is it that made you make this decision?' That is where you can get new knowledge," he said.

The big picture: Competitions to predict new structures and large language models (LLM) that power ChatGPT and other generative AI are starting to make an impact in the field, Butler said. 

The Materials Innovation Factory at the University of Liverpool, the University of Toronto's Acceleration Consortium and others are developing self-driving labs.

Some types of scientific experimentation — not everything — are "really amenable for automation with machine learning and AI," said Olexandr Isayev, a professor of chemistry at Carnegie Mellon University who works on their automated Cloud Lab.

"Software plus hardware" is where "the next advances in the sciences are going to be," he added.

A new AI model predicted millions of hypothetical materials but they still need to be made and tested.

Robots synthesize materials in the A-Lab at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Photo: Marilyn Sargent/Berkeley Lab

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Muslim Americans in several swing states are scheduled to gather in Michigan on Saturday to start a campaign they're calling #AbandonBiden, a reflection of their outrage over President Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war. 

Why it matters: Arab American and Muslim American anger could hurt Biden's re-election prospects in most of the 2024 swing states he won in 2020, as those groups have been heavily Democratic.

Zoom in: Muslim American leaders from Michigan, Minnesota, Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania are expected to meet in Dearborn, Mich., to start the new campaign.

"This #AbandonBiden 2024 conference is set against the backdrop of the upcoming 2024 presidential election and the decision to withdraw support for President Biden due to his unwillingness to call for a ceasefire and protect innocents in Palestine and Israel," the group said in a statement.

"Leaders from swing states will work together to guarantee Biden's loss in the 2024 election."

The campaign primarily will focus on social media for now, organizer Jaylani Hussein of Minneapolis tells Axios.

Hussein said Muslim leaders acknowledge that not supporting Biden could result in the re-election of former President Trump, who is disliked by many Muslim Americans because of his racist retweets about them and his efforts to ban Muslims from migrating to the U.S. 

"We recognize that, in the next four years, our decision may cause us to have an even more difficult time. But we believe that this will give us a chance to recalibrate, and the Democrats will have to consider whether they want our votes or not."

A senior White House official told Axios this week that the White House recently met with Arab American leaders to hear their thoughts, and those conversations are ongoing.

The intrigue: Those swing states all have notable pockets of Arab American and Muslim American populations. 

Yes, but: There aren't reliable statistics on how many are registered voters — but even tiny shifts of support in any of these super-tight states that Biden won in 2020 could make a difference.

The Muslim American population — which can include Arab Americans, Black Americans and Asian Americans — is about 3.45 million, according to the Pew Research Center.

The Census doesn't collect data on religious affiliation in its demographic surveys or its once-a-decade count.

Zoom out: An Axios review of 2020 results in these crucial states shows that if even a sliver of the Arab American and Muslim American vote were to stay home or defect to Republicans, Biden could be in a deep hole.

In Michigan, for example, Biden won in 2020 by 154,000 votes. Census estimates put the state's Arab American population around at least 278,00o.

Biden won Arizona by 10,500 votes. The Arab American population in the Grand Canyon State is estimated to be 60,000.

Biden took Georgia by 11,800 votes. The Arab American population there is at least 57,000.

The Arab American Institute estimates from its own polling that about 59% of Arab American voters supported Biden in 2020, but says its polling indicates that percentage has dropped dramatically in recent weeks.

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Leaders acknowledge their push may benefit Trump, who's unpopular among Muslims.

Thousands of Pro-Palestinian demonstrators hold a huge Palestinian flag as they take over New York City Streets after gathering at Washington Square Park on Black Friday in New York, United States on November 24, 2023.

Thousands of Pro-Palestinian demonstrators hold a huge Palestinian flag during a demonstration in New York last month. Photo: Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images

Race and Equity

The Biden administration is pressing Israel to restore the amount of humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza to the levels seen before the collapse of the ceasefire, two U.S. and Israeli officials said.

Why it matters: Aid groups warn the resumed fighting — especially in southern Gaza where 2 million Palestinians are concentrated — will significantly deepen the humanitarian crisis in the enclave.

Driving the news: As part of the ceasefire agreement, Israel allowed a significant increase in the number of trucks carrying humanitarian aid — about 200 per day — into Gaza. A very limited amount of aid was allowed into the enclave before the ceasefire. 

Israel also allowed four trucks of fuel and four trucks carrying cooking gas to cross into the enclave each day during the pause in fighting.

After talks on extending the ceasefire collapsed and Hamas resumed its rocket fire toward Israel on Friday morning, the Israeli military stopped the entry of aid trucks and fuel from Egypt into Gaza. Israel also resumed its ground offensive and bombardment of Gaza. 

Behind the scenes: Secretary of State Tony Blinken, who was on his way back to the U.S. from the region, called Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer on Friday and stressed that Israel must allow aid into Gaza at the same level it did during the seven-day pause in fighting, a U.S. official said. 

Shortly after the call, Israel allowed about 50 trucks with humanitarian assistance to enter southern Gaza, but it didn't allow fuel into the enclave. 

On Saturday, Israel allowed about 100 aid trucks to enter Gaza, including two trucks with fuel, an Israeli official said.

What they're saying: The U.S. official said the Biden administration is conducting "a full court press" to get Israel to agree to allow the higher levels of aid into the Strip. 

"We want to have the same amount that was going in during the pause as a minimum," the official said.

Aid groups have said that even the higher amount of assistance allowed into Gaza during the pause in fighting was only a fraction of the needs in the Strip. About 500 aid trucks entered the enclave before the war. 

A second Israeli official told reporters in a briefing on Friday that Israel is committed to continuing to allow humanitarian aid to be delivered to the civilian population in Gaza, including trucks with food, water, medicine and fuel. 

Go deeper: U.S. "made it clear" to Israel increased aid to Gaza should be "sustained" after pause

U.S. "made it clear" to Israel increased aid to Gaza should be "sustained" after pause

The Biden admin is mounting a "full court press" to get Israel to allow more aid trucks into the Strip, a U.S. official said.

Aid trucks enter Gaza during the temporary ceasefire on Nov. 28.

Aid trucks enter Gaza during the temporary ceasefire on Nov. 28. PhotoL Ashraf Amra/Anadolu via Getty Images

Axios Explains: Israel-Hamas war

Newsmax is clashing with the Republican National Committee after the conservative, Trump-friendly channel wasn't able to co-sponsor one of the first four GOP presidential primary debates.

Why it matters: The dispute is a view into the delicate and at times fraught negotiations over the debates, which can propel or depress a candidacy — and add prestige and viewers to networks that sponsor them.

Driving the news: After Fox News and Fox Business hosted the first two debates, the RNC proposed that Newsmax co-sponsor the third debate as the junior partner to ABC News, four people familiar with the matter told Axios.

Newsmax executives were wary of being a junior partner with a mainstream media outlet, and thought the $2 million the RNC required Newsmax spend on the event was unnecessarily expensive.

The RNC also approached Newsmax about being the primary sponsor for the upcoming fourth GOP debate — which will be Wednesday in Tuscaloosa, Ala. — and would have required Newsmax to spend about $4 million producing the debate.

Newsmax execs felt that the RNC had moved the goalposts with the larger figure, but an email obtained by Axios shows that Newsmax was aware the costs would change based on the nature of the sponsors' partnership.

The Newsmax execs fumed when the RNC announced last month that NewsNation would sponsor the fourth debate; Newsmax was still looking for an additional sponsor to split the costs.

What they're saying: "Since the beginning of the process the RNC under [chair] Ronna McDaniel has consistently lied and obfuscated to Newsmax about us hosting a debate, so it's clear to us the RNC's goal has been to make sure anti-Trump media control the GOP debates."

The RNC and ABC News declined to comment. 

Some Newsmax hosts have complained on-air about not being the sponsor of a GOP debate.

Host Robert Finnerty said in October: "The RNC gave the third presidential debate to NBC News and I'm not going to say they gave it to NBC News instead of Newsmax, but they gave it to NBC News instead of Newsmax — and it's just it's bizarre to me, because these are GOP primaries."

Between the lines: Newsmax's feud with the RNC is part of a larger conflict in which conservative candidates and media distrust mainstream outlets such as ABC, NBC News, CNN and others.

Some Republicans believe that mainstream outlets shouldn't be involved in any GOP primary debates, but the RNC has prioritized reaching audiences beyond the conservative channels — and tapping into the deeper pockets of larger news organizations.  

Earlier this year, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' team pushed back against NBC News or CNN sponsoring one of the debates.

This week, DeSantis told Newsmax's Eric Bolling that he believed the channel should host a debate. 

The conflict also reflects some right-wing conservatives' wariness of the RNC, which they see as part of a more moderate, establishment brand of conservatism. 

Businessman and GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has been particularly critical of McDaniel, and called on her to resign after the disappointing election results for Republicans in November.

Ramaswamy launched a website called FireRonna.com.

He also has called for a fifth GOP primary debate to be live-streamed on X, and moderated by former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

What's next: The GOP hasn't announced any debates after the one in Alabama, but there could be more before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire's primary in January.

Next week, RNC officials will consider a proposal to allow candidates to attend debates not organized or sanctioned by the RNC, The Washington Post reported.

Ramaswamy has also called for a fifth GOP primary debate

The dispute is a view into the delicate and at times fraught negotiations over the debates.

RNC chair Ronna McDaniel, in a light blue jacket and holding a microphone

RNC chair Ronna McDaniel at the second Republican presidential primary debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., in September. Photo: Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

House Republican leadership is facing some internal backlash over their last-minute opposition to expelling former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) from Congress.

Why it matters: The historic vote to expel Santos was prompted by a report from the bipartisan House Ethics Committee which alleged a "complex web" of wrongdoing by the embattled Long Islander.

Beyond the Ethics Committee, Santos has also been twice criminally indicted. He pleaded not guilty and maintains that he is innocent. 

Driving the news: The House voted 311-114 on Friday to pass a resolution expelling Santos from Congress.

Republicans split almost evenly, with 105 voting for expulsion and 112 voting against – compared to just two Democrats who voted against expulsion and another two who voted "present."

The push to rescue Santos gained 11th hour momentum when Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and other members of leadership came out against expulsion the morning of the vote.

Santos' removal winnows the House GOP majority to a three-vote margin, while also giving Democrats an opportunity to pick up Santos' seat.

What we're hearing: Ethics Committee members Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) and John Rutherford (R-Fla.) both floated to colleagues the idea of resigning from the panel if the vote failed, according to two lawmakers and an aide familiar with the discussions.

Garbarino told Politico, which first reported on his conversation: "People were frustrated with how leadership handled this entire thing. ... If this was not the standard to remove someone, why even have an Ethics Committee?"

The resolution to expel Santos was introduced by Ethics Committee Chair Michael Guest (R-Miss.) following the release of the report.

What they're saying: Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio), who has been vocally critical of Johnson, said ahead of the vote that leadership's opposition to expulsion was a "shameful" addition to his critiques.

"The speaker and everyone in leadership knows this man is a crook," Miller said.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), in a nod to the political downsides for leadership of backing expulsion, told Axios: "This was a vote of the conscience. Truth and morals don't change based on the margin we have for the majority."

One House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said of GOP leadership: "I wish they would have voted yes on the resolution because we all know it was the right thing to do."

"It would have sent the message to the country that we don't want criminals in Congress," the lawmaker said. "They shouldn't have announced how they planned on voting either. That was very disappointing given they asked Guest to author the bill."

The other side: Another GOP lawmaker pointed out that Johnson repeatedly told members in closed-door meetings to vote their conscience.

GOP tensions run high after House vote to expel George Santos

Several Republican members of the House Ethics Committee floated resigning in protest.

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An AI boost for developing new materials

Muslim Americans in swing states launch anti-Biden campaign

U.S. pressing Israel to allow same levels of aid into Gaza as during ceasefire

Scoop: Newsmax feuds with RNC over GOP debates

GOP tensions run high after House vote to expel George Santos

How the Gaza ceasefire collapsed