Photos: Getty Images

There's no such thing as a "front-runner" until Iowa Democrats caucus in January, but it's increasingly clear that 5 campaigns have a structural advantage entering the fall.

The big picture: Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris have built campaigns that can raise piles of cash — which they can use to build donor lists to raise even bigger piles of cash.

Expand chart
Data: FEC; Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios (See the interactive version)

Why it matters: The September debates require candidates to meet both a higher polling threshold and have twice as many donors as the first two rounds.

  • As of today, only the top 5 have qualified.
  • Watch at the next debate for candidates outside the top 5 — such as Julián Castro, who earned rave reviews after Debate 1 — to make a ploy for another big round of earned media.
  • Read FiveThirtyEight's breakdown of the September race.

The bottom line: Expect the field of 20+ to winnow significantly in the next few months.

Go deeper: Keep track of the latest fundraising numbers

Go deeper

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
10 mins ago - Health

Reopening the ACA debate is politically risky for GOP

Data: Kaiser Family Foundation, The Cook Political Report; Notes: Those losing insurance includes 2020 ACA marketplace enrollment and 2019 Medicaid expansion enrollment among newly-eligible enrollees. Close races are those defined as "Toss up" or "Lean R/D"; Table: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

The sudden uncertainty surrounding the future of the Affordable Care Act could be an enormous political liability for Republicans in key states come November.

Between the lines: Millions of people in crucial presidential and Senate battlegrounds would lose their health care coverage if the Supreme Court strikes down the law, as the Trump administration is urging it to.

Coronavirus cases rise in 22 states

Expand chart
Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Map: Andrew Witherspoon, Sara Wise/Axios

The coronavirus is surging once again across the U.S., with cases rising in 22 states over the past week.

The big picture: There isn't one big event or sudden occurrence that explains this increase. We simply have never done a very good job containing the virus, despite losing 200,000 lives in just the past six months, and this is what that persistent failure looks like.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3:30 a.m. ET: 31,870,904 — Total deaths: 976,311 — Total recoveries: 21,979,888Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3:30 a.m ET: 6,934,205 — Total deaths: 201,909 — Total recoveries: 2,670,256 — Total tests: 97,459,742Map.
  3. Health: CDC director says over 90% of Americans have not yet been exposed to coronavirus — Supply shortages continue to plague testing.
  4. Politics: Missouri Gov. Mike Parson tests positive for coronavirus — Poll says 51% of Republicans trust Trump on coronavirus more than the CDC.
  5. Technology: The tech solutions of 2020 may be sapping our resolve to beat the coronavirus
  6. Vaccines: Johnson & Johnson begins large phase 3 trial — The FDA plans to toughen standards.
  7. World: Justin Trudeau says Canada's second wave has begun
  8. Future: America's halfway coronavirus response

Get Axios AM in your inbox

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!