Nov 23, 2022 - Politics & Policy

House Democrats eye lost ground in 2024

Data: Dave's Redistricting Atlas, Daily Kos, New York Times; Table: Simran Parwani/Axios

House Democrats are already sizing up the 2024 election map, circling Republicans in districts that mostly voted for President Biden as their top early targets.

Why it matters: The early primer of the 2024 battleground could influence how certain House Republicans vote and comport themselves, as well as where presidential candidates spend their time and parties focus their resources.

Driving the news: A memo from House Majority PAC, House Democrats' main super PAC, lists 19 districts that it says are "the path to retaking the Majority."

  • The list includes every district that voted for President Biden in 2020 but had been called for Republicans as of Sunday, plus three seats that narrowly went for Trump in 2020.
  • Among the targets are some Biden-district GOP incumbents who secured easy victories this year, including Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), who won by nearly 10 points, and Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.), who won by almost 14 points.
  • The list is likely to be expanded — the memo calls the targets "initial, but not comprehensive" — but it shows where Democrats see their best opportunities.

Between the lines: The list signals that a key part of House Democrats' strategy in 2024 will be to harness the Democratic presidential ticket's coattails — a luxury the party didn't have in the 2022 midterms.

Flashback: Even before Election Day, Democratic strategists working on House races pointed to Democrats' underwhelming gubernatorial campaigns in states like New York, California and Oregon as a key cause of House candidates' underperformance in those states.

  • Those governors won't be on the ballot in 2024 — but Biden may be.

What we're watching: Whether Democrats make another run at taking down far-right Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), who is on track to win her Trump +5 district by just a few hundred votes over Democrat Adam Frisch.

  • The memo notes the proliferation of Trump-aligned GOP candidates in swing districts forced Republicans' super PAC "to spend millions in an effort to save their preferred candidates from the MAGA wing of the party."
  • Another dynamic to watch is whether Democrats make any investments in Florida, another state where Republicans did unusually well this year — but one Democrats see as slipping out of reach, especially in presidential contests.
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