Jul 13, 2022 - Politics & Policy

The Democratic electorate's seismic shift

An illustration of blue and red checkmarks on a ballot.

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

Democrats now have a bigger advantage among white college graduates than they do with nonwhite voters, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.

Why it matters: We're seeing a political realignment in real time.

  • Democrats are becoming the party of upscale voters concerned more about issues like gun control and abortion rights.
  • Republicans are quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters, with inflation as an accelerant.

What's happening: House Republicans boast this year's class of new candidates is the most diverse in history.

  • The NRCC notes that 29 of its 75 House targets have a Hispanic population over 15%.

In the Times/Siena poll, Ds hold a 20-point advantage over Rs among white college-educated voters — but are statistically tied among Hispanics.

  • Hispanic voters backed Democrats by a nearly 50-point margin in the 2018 midterms. In the 2016 congressional elections, Dems lost white voters with a bachelor's degree.

President Biden's job approval sank to 33%.

  • But Ds and Rs are in a statistical tie on the congressional ballot.

Between the lines: Dems' fortunes are bolstered by a slice of well-off socially liberal voters who disapprove of Biden's performance — yet strongly support Democrats for other races.

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