The Democratic electorate's seismic shift
Why it matters: We're seeing a political realignment in real time.
- Democrats are becoming the party of upscale voters concerned more about issues like gun control and abortion rights.
- Republicans are quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters, with inflation as an accelerant.
What's happening: House Republicans boast this year's class of new candidates is the most diverse in history.
- The NRCC notes that 29 of its 75 House targets have a Hispanic population over 15%.
In the Times/Siena poll, Ds hold a 20-point advantage over Rs among white college-educated voters — but are statistically tied among Hispanics.
- Hispanic voters backed Democrats by a nearly 50-point margin in the 2018 midterms. In the 2016 congressional elections, Dems lost white voters with a bachelor's degree.
President Biden's job approval sank to 33%.
- But Ds and Rs are in a statistical tie on the congressional ballot.
Between the lines: Dems' fortunes are bolstered by a slice of well-off socially liberal voters who disapprove of Biden's performance — yet strongly support Democrats for other races.