May 16, 2022 - Politics & Policy

Preliminary NY congressional map scales back Dem gains

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.). Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Preliminary redrawn New York congressional maps posted online Monday would substantially reduce the number of safe Democratic seats drawn by the state legislature.

Why it matters: Democrats had been leaning on favorable gerrymanders in blue states like Illinois and New York to offset GOP gains in key states like Florida. While the new New York map, drawn up by a court-appointed mapmaker, is not finalized, it would further devastate Democrats’ chances at keeping the House.

  • The final maps are due on Friday, pending public feedback, but the expectation is that the map won’t change significantly, a Democratic staffer familiar with the process told Axios.

By the numbers: The map increases the number of competitive districts initially drawn up by the Democrat-controlled state legislature from three to eight, according to the draft document.

  • District compactness is also a big focus, with more counties going fully in one district. Split districts went from 34 in the original map to 15.
  • House Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis benefits particularly, with her Staten Island-based district drawn as far less Democratic-leaning than what the legislature proposed.

What we’re watching: The map has already led several Democratic incumbents and candidates to shift their plans.

  • Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, swiftly announced tentative plans to run in a district mostly made up of Rep. Mondaire Jones’ current district, where Maloney‘s home was drawn in.
  • Jones, however, would be in a district with Rep. Jamaal Bowman, a fellow freshman with a similarly progressive profile, according to a Democratic staffer familiar with the maps. It is unclear if they would run against each other, or if Jones would run elsewhere.
  • Pat Ryan, the executive of Ulster County, who was widely rumored to be planning a run for Rep. Antonio Delgado’s soon-to-be-vacant district, instead announced plans to run in Maloney’s district, where his home was drawn in.
  • Republican Marc Molinaro, the executive of Dutchess County, said he will continue to run in Delgado's more GOP-leaning district despite his home county being drawn out of it.

Another district with potential drama is the 12th district, which is drawn to include the Upper East Side and Upper West Side of Manhattan.

  • That would place Reps. Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn Maloney, both senior Democrats who chair the Judiciary and Oversight committees respectively, together.
  • Nadler said in a statement he plans to run in the new 12th district.
  • State Sen. Brad Hoylman said he’s “seriously considering” a run in the 10th district, which is currently Nadler’sseat but would now encompass downtown Manhattan and part of Brooklyn.
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