Jun 11, 2020 - Health

Coronavirus cases decline overall, rise in New Mexico and Oregon

Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Map: Andrew Witherspoon, Sara Wise, Naema Ahmed, Danielle Alberti/Axios

New Mexico and Oregon have seen particularly large increases in new coronavirus cases over the past week, while most of the country is headed in the right direction.

Why it matters: The White House’s reopening guidelines call for a steady two-week decline in the number of new cases, but in several states the outbreak continues to fluctuate from week to week.

Between the lines: Each week, Axios is documenting the change in new cases in each state. We use a seven-day average to minimize inconsistencies in when new cases are reported.

  • Overall, the number of new cases in the U.S. is steadily falling. That progress has been led consistently, week after week, by steady improvements in hard-hit areas including New York and Massachusetts.
  • The South has generally lagged, with several weeks of increasing caseloads. California has also been a persistent trouble spot.

This week, the number of new cases shot up by over 50% in four states — Arizona, Florida, New Mexico and Oregon.

  • Florida and Arizona, however, have also recorded enormous improvements in testing over the past week.
  • Florida, for example, saw a 65% increase in cases, but also a 65% increase in the number of tests performed — so that spike in confirmed cases is probably a reflection of more accurate data, rather than an outbreak that got 65% worse.
  • New Mexico and Oregon both saw increased caseloads that outpace their improvements in testing, suggesting that their outbreaks are in fact getting worse.

Yes, but: A situation like Florida’s, where new cases are largely tied to improved testing, is not a reason to breathe easy. Learning that your state's situation is worse than you realized is still a long way away from getting the outbreak under control.

  • Texas, another state that health experts have been paying particularly close attention to, reported a sharp increase in new cases last week and another 7% jump this week.
  • The number of people hospitalized with coronavirus infections in Texas has hit a record high.
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