Jun 3, 2020 - Economy & Business

Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker predicts -53% growth in Q2

Data: Atlanta Fed; Chart: Axios Visuals
Data: Atlanta Fed; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker estimates that real GDP growth in the second quarter will decline by -52.8%.

What they're saying: That estimate is down from -51.2% on May 29 and -40.4% on May 28.

Why it matters: Recent economic reports have shown slightly improving numbers, but the Atlanta Fed's model suggests the overall trend is projecting a worse quarter than most economists had as even their worst-case scenario only weeks ago.

  • The 10 percentage point decline from last week's estimates is based on Monday's ISM report on business and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

By the numbers: Expectations for real personal consumption expenditures declined from -56.5% to -58.1% and expectations for real gross private domestic investment decreased from -61.5% to -62.6%, the Atlanta Fed noted.

What's next: Today's data will be closely watched with the release of IHS Markit and ISM's nonmanufacturing indexes for May and the ADP private payrolls report potentially offering some good news for investors.

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